Throughout the offseason, Kyle Yates will be highlighting several marquee fantasy players as he walks through his projection process. These projections are subject to change based on injuries, signings above/below them on the depth chart, new information regarding scheme or player usage, etc. They’ll serve as a way to give a “peek behind the curtain” into Kyle’s projections thought process and whether or not a player will be a fantasy value in 2021.
In this article, we look at how Najee Harris is well-positioned to finish as a top-10 RB in 2021.
Najee Harris
Harris is one of the more well-rounded RBs to come out in recent history. Not only does he have the size (230 pounds) that NFL talent evaluators love at the position, he also brings incredible receiving ability to the table as well. It’s rare to find the blend of size, speed, and power that Harris provides and he’s set to emerge onto the scene in a big way.
After putting together a dominant 2020 season at Alabama that culminated in 30 total touchdowns, Harris was selected in the first round (pick 24 overall) of the 2021 NFL Draft by the Pittsburgh Steelers. With very little competition for touches out of the backfield on this depth chart, plus the significant investment, Harris figures to be a key part of the Steelers offense right away. Pittsburgh was far from a well-balanced offense last season and they went into this off-season with clear intentions on remedying that issue.
Najee Harris with one ✋🏼 pic.twitter.com/mTHe9L3DMi
— NFL Beat Writers (@32BeatWriters) July 29, 2021
With Harris’ ability to shoulder a significant workload, Ben Roethlisberger won’t be forced to carry this team with 656 pass attempts like they had last season. At his age, that inflated passing volume won’t be a winning strategy and Harris’ presence is in large part due to that fact.
With all that being said though, how does a rookie RB like Harris have the potential to beat out some very solid names at the RB position like Austin Ekeler, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, D’Andre Swift, Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs, etc. for a top-10 finish? Let’s take a look and break it down.
Projections
The conversation with Pittsburgh has to start with their ridiculous pass/run ratio from last season. With virtually no run game, the Steelers were -283 in their run-to-pass differential in 2020, which was a significant jump from their -115 in 2019. They ended the season with 656 total pass attempts and averaged 41 pass attempts per game.
In an attempt to see their offense become more balanced as Big Ben nears the end of his career, Harris is going to allow those pass attempts to come crashing down this season. In my projections model, I’ve allotted 35 pass attempts per game to the Steelers, which gives Ben 595 on the season. That’s a significant drop-off in targets for the receivers in this offense too, but that’s another conversation for another article.
As for the rush attempts, Pittsburgh averaged 23 per game in 2020 even with a lackluster group. This season, I’m allotting 25 rush attempts per game to this offense that should still remain among the league leaders in total plays ran. If that is the case, Harris is looking at a very sizable workload without a mobile QB there to take away rush attempts.
On this depth chart, the Steelers currently have:
One – or two – of these players will be released by the time the season starts, but it’s not exactly a standout group behind the rookie. Snell hasn’t exactly been able to take advantage of his opportunities in the past, McFarland’s an exciting player but is unproven, Ballage hasn’t exactly been the model of efficiency over his career, and Samuels seems close to being on his way out.
"Expect Najee Harris to have a very similar start to his career, maybe even better [than Le'Veon Bell]"@MJD can't wait to watch @ohthatsNajee22 🤩 pic.twitter.com/gD7BVqWpic
— NFL Total Access (@NFLTotalAccess) July 29, 2021
With all that in mind, we can comfortably project the backfield to break down in the following way with carry shares:
- Harris – 67% (284.8 carries)
- McFarland – 27% (114.8 carries)
- Roethlisberger – 6% (25.5 carries)
It’s unlikely that we see the RB3 in this offense command any sort of significant carry share and we should see McFarland factor in as a change-of-pace back, but nothing more than that. This means that Harris is walking into an opportunity that few other RBs in the NFL get to see. With that being said, the offensive line has taken a massive step back this off-season and could play a role in Harris’ efficiency numbers.
Because of my concerns with the offensive line, I’ve projected Harris with 3.9 YPC to go with his 285 carries. This gives him 1,111 rushing yards on the season. Based on Expected TD Rate, which averages the number of yards it took for a RB to score a TD last season, Harris should finish the season with eight touchdowns. With his projected usage in the red zone, it wouldn’t shock me to see him finish with more than that in 2021, but we’ll stay conservative and give him eight.
As mentioned previously, not only does Harris bring fantastic traits to the game on the ground, but he’s a very capable receiver too. Pittsburgh didn’t draft him just to use him as a pure runner out of the backfield and he’s going to command a significant target share. Off of the aforementioned 35 projected pass attempts per game, I’ve given Harris a 13% target share. This leaves him with 77.4 targets for the season and there’s a strong possibility that he sees even more than that.
With a projected 76% catch rate and 8.2 yards per reception, Harris’ receiving stats break down to 59 receptions for 482 yards and two touchdowns. With these stats, plus his rushing totals, Harris ends up with 248.65 projected fantasy points in 2021, per my model. This is enough to slot him in at RB10 in my projections.
Fantasy Outlook
It’s not exactly a common occurrence that we see rookie RBs come out of the gate on fire, but Harris has the skillset and abilities to buck that trend. He’s currently being drafted as the RB11, which has certainly risen since the time I planned to write this article, but he’s one of the safer options in all of fantasy football this year. With other players in the same range like CEH, Ekeler, Dobbins, Jacobs, etc. you’re banking on a leap in volume from what we’ve seen previously or incredible efficiency numbers and Harris provides a safer floor.
Najee Harris is a human highlight reel! pic.twitter.com/KpJVChFjrA
— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) January 21, 2021
Harris is going to see work in this offense, as laid out above, and he has the talent to be even better than the projections that I gave him. You might be scared off of a rookie RB, especially one that’s going as highly as he is, but everything’s there for Harris to be a fantasy football stud in 2021.
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Kyle Yates is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive and follow him @KyleYNFL.
