Everyone can’t always agree. Sometimes we just don’t see eye to eye. Other times, we get a gut feeling that goes against the grain. That’s particularly true when it comes to fantasy football. Well, that’s what this column is all about — each week, I will assess players with some of the most considerable variances (standard deviations) in the PPR rankings by my FantasyPros colleagues. My goal is to aid with starting lineup decisions by highlighting contrarian plays for season-long and DFS leagues. Based on their rankings this week, here are my calls regarding players that I think will either feast or suffer from famine.
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Feast
Raheem Mostert (SF)
ECR: RB18 — STDEV 3.9
Raheem Mostert is an excellent fantasy running back when he can stay on the field. He is healthy right now, and he was uber-efficient in San Francisco’s final preseason game, averaging 7.6 yards per attempt in limited playing time. The bad news is that he will probably concede snaps to rookie Trey Sermon as the season progresses. That means now is the time to use him. It doesn’t get much better than this week, as the 49ers will face the Lions’ league-worst rushing defense. I expect San Francisco to build an early lead and turn to the ground game to burn out the clock. I prefer using Mostert over players like Saquon Barkley and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Barkley will likely be on a pitch count his first game back from a knee injury, and Edwards-Helaire is facing a Browns defense that was one of the better units against the run last season. Mostert is a value pick on DraftKings this week.
Zach Ertz
ECR: TE17 — STDEV 2.8
A lot of people are down on Zach Ertz. They should remember that he was plagued by injuries last season and is just one year removed from a top-five finish. Yes, fellow tight end Dallas Goedert will take away some targets from him. However, the Eagles often utilized two-tight end sets when both players were healthy. Besides, Philadelphia plays Atlanta this week in what should be a high-scoring affair. The Falcons like to hand out points like candy at Halloween, and they surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends last year. In addition, beat reporters have noted that the Eagles were using Ertz over Goedert in the preseason. Both tight ends should get their share, especially if quarterback Jalen Hurts leans on them in his first game as a true starter. Look for Ertz to crack the top 12 this week.
Jakobi Meyers
ECR: WR45 — STDEV 7.4
The FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings run the gamut on Jakobi Meyers. The experts have ranked the Patriots’ wideout as high as WR31 and as low as WR72. The trepidation concerning the third-year pro mainly stems from quarterback Mac Jones making his NFL debut against Miami’s defense. Their unit allowed the fourth-fewest points per game and led the league in takeaways last season. However, since the Dolphins are favored, the Patriots will probably be forced to throw, and Jones looked poised in the preseason. Wide receiver Nelson Agholor is unlikely to suit up on Sunday after missing practice all week, which will create more chances for Meyers to produce. As Jones’ favorite target in the preseason, Meyers could pick up right up where he left off last season.
Famine
D’Andre Swift (DET)
ECR: RB21 — STDEV 3.5
D’Andre Swift had an excellent rookie season. He scored ten total touchdowns in 13 games. He also saw the 11th-most targets among running backs with 4.4 per game on average. My compadres’ rankings cover both ends of the spectrum for him this week, varying from RB11 to RB30. The problem is that he is coming off injuries from the preseason, and Coach Dan Campbell has been dodgy regarding them. Despite the team saying the contrary, I think the Lions will ease him back with the capable veteran Jamaal Williams behind him. Swift is a risky start as anything higher than an RB3/flex option.
Kenny Golladay (NYG)
ECR: WR42 — STDEV 7.5
The Giants’ offensive line was awful last season and showed minimal improvement in the preseason. It will have its hands full against Denver linebackers Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. Quarterback Daniel Jones could take a beating and likely won’t have the time to get the ball to deep-threat Kenny Golladay. Also, Golladay just returned to practice after being limited on Wednesday and Thursday with a nagging hamstring issue, and he may not be 100 percent on Sunday afternoon. I see him scoring around ten fantasy points this week.
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Bonnie Robinson is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Bonnie, check out her profile and follow her @FantasyQueenB.
