Fantasy draft season is in full swing, and we have almost officially survived another offseason. This piece has become a bit of a tradition for me, as I enjoy framing draft questions in terms of player comparisons over the simple “Who is a great sleeper?” or “Who are the best rookies to draft?”
Last year’s version had some hits and misses. I made “correct” predictions for guys like Kyler Murray, D.K. Metcalf, and Devin Singletary, but I absolutely whiffed on Keenan Allen and Aaron Jones. To be fair, on Allen, Tyrod was supposed to start the season for Los Angeles.
Let’s get into it for 2021.
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Who is this year’s Justin Herbert?
Criteria: A rookie quarterback who isn’t supposed to play a lot, but who ends up playing a lot — and very well.
Justin Fields (CHI)
Okay, you probably saw that coming. Fields seems to be the answer to Chicago’s quarterback woes, and every single one of current-starter Andy Dalton’s incompletions will come under scrutiny. The coaching staff seems committed to Dalton, but it won’t be long before Fields takes over.
Honorable mention: Trey Lance (QB – SF), obviously
Who is this year’s Aaron Rodgers?
Criteria: A historically above-average quarterback who you can draft at a discount with huge value.
Matthew Stafford (LAR)
Stafford is currently going off the board as the QB10, so right around the “eh, it’s fine, I’ll grab a quarterback later” range. Last year, despite another expectedly disappointing season on a historically disappointing franchise’s perennially disappointing offense, Stafford still threw for 4,084 yards and had a 2.6:1 TD:INT ratio. He did so with his main weapon, Kenny Golladay, only playing five games. Stafford is in Los Angeles now, and he has a creative head coach and a handful of playmakers in Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, among others. He offers basically nothing on the ground, so he probably won’t vault into the elite category, but he is basically a lock to return value at his ADP.
Honorable mention: Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN)
Who is this year’s Kareem Hunt?
Criteria: A running back who sits at second on his depth chart but can have a top-15 season.
James Conner (ARI)
Conner has been maddening to manage the last few seasons, but he has flashed ability in the running and receiving game, and he doesn’t have a ton of competition in front of him.
Chase Edmonds had a few small flashes in 2019, but he generally fell flat in 2020, even with Kenyan Drake seeing some limited volume at different stages of the season. Edmonds had only two games with more than ten carries (11 and 25), and his single-game high in rushing is just 70 yards. Edmonds was involved in the passing game with 53 receptions, but Conner has shown skill there, too — he caught 55 passes in 13 games in 2018, 34 in ten games in 2019, and 35 in 13 games in 2020.
The Cardinals’ offense will be effective, and if Conner can carve out a majority of the running back duties, he would be a huge draft-day value.
Honorable mention: Kareem Hunt (RB – CLE)
Who is this year’s Clyde Edwards-Helaire?
Criteria: An early-round running back with tons of hype that doesn’t really deliver.
Jonathan Taylor (IND)
This one feels a little obvious. Taylor is currently the RB8 and the ninth overall player in ADP. Please hold while the Zero RB truthers get their Pepto Bismol.
Taylor had a very nice rookie year. He ran for 1,169 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns, and he added 36 receptions for 299 yards and another score. However, 253 of those yards and two of those scores came in Week 17 when the fantasy world no longer cared. Taylor was pretty inconsistent last year — he finished four games with less than 30 rushing yards but five with 90 or more, and he ultimately finished as the RB6.
Philip Rivers retired, and the Colts traded for Carson Wentz in the offseason. When healthy, Wentz offers some rushing value himself, and he may steal a few touchdowns. Marlon Mack is also healthy, and Nyheim Hines is still around. I like Taylor and believe he is extremely talented, but Mack’s return and Wentz’s arrival may limit him to the point that your first-round or early second-round pick should have been used elsewhere.
Honorable mention: Joe Mixon (RB – CIN), only because we’ve seen it before
Who is this year’s Stefon Diggs?
Criteria: A historically successful receiver who vaults into the elite tier.
Cooper Kupp (LAR)
To continue discussing Matthew Stafford, I think Kupp will absolutely erupt this season. Kupp had a bit of a turbulent 2020, as did the entire Los Angeles roster, but Stafford’s arrival should launch this passing game into the stratosphere. Kupp caught 92 passes in 2020 but scored only three touchdowns. To be honest, this is more of a “just feels right” pick instead of an analytical one, but Kupp’s proven athleticism and Stafford’s willingness to sling the ball all over the field combine to make me excited about his outlook in 2021.
Who is this year’s Chase Claypool?
Criteria: A rookie wide receiver in a crowded offense that returns a top-15 season.
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
Claypool, to my surprise, finished as the WR14 in standard leagues last year. He did so despite starting the season as Pittsburgh’s third receiving option.
Chase enters his rookie season in a similar situation, although his outlook is a bit more fruitful than Claypool’s was this time last year. Chase went fifth overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, and he already has chemistry with Joe Burrow from their time together at LSU.
Chase will compete for targets with Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, not to mention the tight ends and Joe Mixon, but I’m buying into the hype. Chase has had some drop issues in the preseason, but I’m viewing that as a draft-day discount and not a long-term concern.
Honorable mention: Rondale Moore (WR – ARI)
Who is this year’s Robby Anderson?
Criteria: A veteran wide receiver who moves teams, has a fairly bleak outlook, but ultimately surprises and produces.
Corey Davis (NYJ)
I totally understand if you don’t want to draft any Jets. They have been nauseating for — checks calendar — 100,000 years. Davis, however, has shown plenty of flashes over his career. Even last year, in which he played largely in A.J. Brown’s shadow, Davis posted five games with 100-plus receiving yards.
However, the Jets don’t have a ton of weapons. Jamison Crowder is still there, and he is Davis’s biggest threat, as far as I can tell. However, his other competition consists of a slew of young, unproven receivers in Elijah Moore, Denzel Mims, and Braxton Berrios. I anticipate that the Jets will have to pass frequently because they’ll have to play from behind, and if rookie Zach Wilson is half as good as the beat reports on him say, they should be able to move the ball. Davis could see some healthy volume this season.
Honorable mention: Curtis Samuel (WR – WAS)
A few of these players are poised for breakout seasons, surprising production, or inevitable disappointment. I encourage you to frame your fantasy research like this so that you can hone in on some parallel situations and some areas of value.
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Donald Gibson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Donald, check out his archive and follow him @DonaldGibsonFF.
