Heading into the third week of this column, I suggested starting Cordarrelle Patterson against the Giants. If you heeded my advice, you beat everyone to the punch ahead of the en masse waiver wire scramble. I try to be predictive or think outside the box to gain a competitive advantage. Of course, that always comes with some risk. If you enjoy my work, please follow me on Twitter. Let’s move on to see what this week has in store. Based on the Fantasy Pros consensus rankings, below are some players I think will either feast or suffer from famine.
In this column, I analyze players with some of the most considerable variances (standard deviations) in the individual PPR rankings by my FantasyPros colleagues. Hopefully, these comparative assessments against the rankings will aid with fantasy lineup decisions, and I will try to include less obvious and trending players when possible.
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Feast
Damien Williams (RB – CHI)
ECR: WR18 – STDEV 4.1
The week’s top waiver-wire pick-up is a virtual must-start. The last time we saw Damien Williams with a full workload, he was the hero in the Chiefs’ SuperBowl LIV victory. In his last five games as a starter (2019), Williams finished with 18.2, 31.4, 26.8, 19.9, and 29.3 points per game. Unfortunately, the Chiefs released him in March after he opted out of the 2020 season. Due to David Montgomery‘s injury, Williams gets another chance to shine in a similar offense to the one he found success with while with the Chiefs. With Montgomery’s absence late in the game against the Lions, Williams totaled 55 yards and a touchdown on just eight carries averaging nearly 7 yards per tote. He also had two grabs for 15 yards. In his first start for the Bears, he will face the Raiders in a favorable matchup. Their defense is giving up the seventh-most points to running backs and just surrendered 117 yards and a touchdown on the ground to Austin Ekeler. Ekeler also added 28 yards and a touchdown on three receptions. Williams did suffer a thigh bruise during the Lions game but practiced in full for the second consecutive day on Thursday. He should finish near his median ranking of RB18.
Trey Lance (QB – SF)
ECR: QB16 – STDEV 5.8
With Jimmy Garoppolo not practicing for the second straight day Thursday, it appears Trey Lance will get his first NFL start this weekend against Arizona. Although he seemed flustered at times while filling in for Garoppolo in the loss to Seattle, Lance still managed to throw for 157 yards and two touchdowns while adding 41 yards on seven runs. That performance was good enough for 20.38 fantasy points (QB13) despite him only playing half the game. While Lance might not be quite ready for prime time, he will have a week of practice with the starters under his belt and has tremendous rushing upside. The Cardinals only allow 16.55 points per game to the position, but they haven’t yet faced a QB with Lance’s rushing caliber.
To put it in perspective, Jalen Hurts, who is also still raw as a passer, has finished among the Top 12 QBs every week this season because of his rushing prowess. That includes two finishes in the Top 5. I’m siding with the rankers who have Lance in their Top 12 at the position this week.
Jamison Crowder (WR – NYJ)
ECR: WR44 – STDEV 4.4
Jamison Crowder made his season debut against Tennessee, catching seven targets for 61 yards and a touchdown for a WR14 finish. He was quarterback Zach Wilson‘s favorite target and provided him with an excellent check-down option from the slot. Perhaps the variance from WR30 to WR53 in the rankings for Crowder is due to Elijah Moore‘s imminent return from a concussion this week. However, Moore will likely take a back seat after Crowder has seemingly reclaimed his role. Crowder is in line for another big day against a weak Atlanta secondary that Terry McLaurin just shredded to the tune of 123 yards and two touchdowns. Crowder could finish in the Top 24 again this week.
Famine
Samaje Perine (RB – CIN)
ECR: RB34 – STDEV 9.3
With Joe Mixon nursing an ankle injury and unlikely to suit up, Samaje Perine is the next man up. Even though Green Bay’s defense is mediocre against the run, Perine probably won’t have much success working behind a line struggling to create running room. The game script also favors the pass as the Bengals are the underdog in this one. Additionally, there are reports that Cincinnati will use a committee approach with Chris Evans if Mixon is out. Perine has out-touched Evans so far on the year but hasn’t been very effective. He will be limited in PPR formats, with Evans getting the work in the passing game.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)
ECR: WR52 – STDEV 4.5
Although Trey Lance will likely have a great game if he starts this week, Brandon Aiyuk likely will not. Aiyuk is behind Deebo Samuel and George Kittle in the pecking order and doesn’t see as many targets in games when the latter two are healthy. Samuel was Lance’s go-to guy when he took over for Jimmy Garoppolo in the second half last week, and Aiyuk was even out-targeted by Mohamed Sanu. The fact that Sanu’s targets came in clutch moments is not a good omen for Aiyuk. I’d expect Aiyuk to put up another dud against Arizona, especially if Lance is at the helm.
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Bonnie Robinson is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Bonnie, check out her profile and follow her @FantasyQueenB.
