The NFL season is progressing rapidly, as we are now at Week 5 of 18. It will be another 5 years before I get used to “Week 18” and then it will probably be changed to something else.
This is the time of the season where you can start to glean trends from 2021 as opposed to a combination of last year, this year, your gut, and what a collection of fantasy writers tell you. Most teams are starting to formulate an identity, though that cannot be said for all of them, as you’ll see below. Here are a few players that are overvalued or undervalued vs. their respective rankings for Week 5.
As always, rankings are from the FantasyPros ECR based on Half-PPR scoring.
Get a FREE 6-month upgrade with our special offer 
Quarterbacks
Overvalued
Tom Brady (TB): QB6
This is a bit of a narrative pick, but Tom Brady coming off an emotionally draining trip to New England feels like a position for a pull-back game. When in New England, Brady always seemed to have random trouble with the Dolphins, and I think they keep this game close. He’s almost always a “fine” start, but QB6 is a bit rich for my taste.
Undervalued
Joe Burrow (CIN): QB16
The Bengals are home underdogs against the Packers, and Burrow showed a little bit of swagger last week to get them a come-from-behind win against the Jaguars. He’s coming off his best game of the season, and he’ll have to throw to keep up with the Packers offense. The Packers are also missing a slew of defensive backs. Burrow is a great streaming option in Week 5.
Running Backs
Overvalued
Leonard Fournette (TB): RB16
Oh, I’m not ready to fall for this yet. Fournette has become the apparent lead back in Tampa Bay, out-snapping Ronald Jones 64:13 last week and 163:57 on the season, but I’m still not at the point where I can comfortably use Fournette if I have a decent alternative. This one has the potential to blow up in my face, as the Dolphins are the third-worst against fantasy running backs and have allowed five rushing touchdowns this season, but it just feels like Fournette’s ranking is a bit premature.
Undervalued
Mike Davis (ATL): RB24
Okay, this is the last time I’m going to try to force this. Davis has done barely enough to stay in starting consideration, but generally, his productivity hasn’t been good enough. He’s averaging just over 12 carries per game and hasn’t had more than 50 rushing yards in a game yet this season, though he has averaged a decent four receptions per game as well. Despite Cordarrelle Patterson‘s random continued emergence, Davis still out-snapped Patterson 51:23 last week. The matchup with the Jets is ideal, and the Falcons missing Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage can only help matters. This is Davis’s last chance.
Wide Receivers
Overvalued
Terry McLaurin (WFT): WR8
So far this season, McLaurin either has decent production – actually exactly four receptions for 62 yards in both Week 1 and Week 3 – or a huge week with over 100 yards and at least one touchdown. This week, Washington takes on the Saints, who have been one of the weirdest teams in the NFL this season. The Saints seem to be lacking identity and either demolish their opponents or just wander around aimlessly. I don’t trust this game to be high-scoring enough – the Vegas total is one of the lowest on the week at 43.5 – for McLaurin to have one of those massive games, and as a result, WR8 is a bit ambitious.
Undervalued
Amari Cooper (DAL): WR18
If you’ve read this piece so far this season, you know I inevitably have a “just feels good” play most weeks. This week it’s Cooper. He is and has always been one of the most turbulent receivers in the league, and this week I think he flips to the good side. Cooper started the season with 13 receptions for 139 yards and two scores, but he only has three receptions in each game since. He’s due.
Tight Ends
Undervalued
Dalton Schultz (DAL): TE10
Oh no, two Cowboys in a row. This one’s easy. Tight ends are awful. Dalton Schultz is currently the TE4. He has six receptions in three out of four games this season, which is actually better than I realized. The Giants have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in every game this season. Easy-peezy. Fire it up.
Get a $5 bonus when you make your first deposit at FanDuel
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Beyond our daily fantasy football content, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Football Tools. From our Value Plays – which allows you to identify players who are projected to outperform their salaries – to our DFS Cheat Sheets – that helps you get a quick read on the day’s players – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Donald Gibson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Donald, check out his archive and follow him @DonaldGibsonFF.
