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The Game Plan: Week 5 Edition (2021 Fantasy Football)

by Kyle Yates | @KyleYNFL | Featured Writer
Oct 7, 2021
The Game Plan

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Philadelphia Eagles vs Carolina Panthers

Date/Time: Sunday October 10, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Panthers -4
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 45 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Panthers 24.5, Eagles 20.5

Philadelphia Eagles

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Jalen Hurts 25/36 266 2.15 0.85 39 0.35 24
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Kenneth Gainwell 5 22 0.15 4 36 0.35 10.92
RB Miles Sanders 8 37 0.35 3 25 0.2 10.91
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR Devonta Smith 0 0 0 5 60 0.45 11.22
WR Jalen Reagor 0 0 0 3 28 0.2 5.72
WR Quez Watkins 0 0 0 2 27 0.15 4.76
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Dallas Goedert 0 0 0 4 49 0.4 9.07

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Carolina Panthers

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Sam Darnold 22/34 242 1.95 0.65 29 0.6 23
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Chuba Hubbard 14 50 0.65 2 12 0.1 11.49
RB Rodney Smith 0 0 0 3 27 0.2 5.39
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR D.J. Moore 0 0 0 8 101 0.65 17.82
WR Robby Anderson 0 0 0 3 38 0.3 6.9
WR Terrace Marshall Jr. 0 0 0 3 22 0.3 5.33
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Tommy Tremble 0 0 0 2 24 0.25 5.06

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Quarterback

Philadelphia: Has it been perfect for Jalen Hurts this season as the leader of the Eagles offense? Not exactly. Hurts has shown that he hasn’t made immense strides as a passer since last year, but it also hasn’t quite mattered for fantasy football purposes. Hurts has capitalized on garbage time production, plus matchups, and a significant workload as a runner and it has translated to a QB3 ranking on the year. In a game where the Chiefs were leading by a significant amount for the majority of the game, Hurts was able to take advantage of the increased pass volume and easier matchup as he threw for a shocking 387 yards and two touchdowns (it could have been even more if Smith had been able to stay in bounds for a long touchdown). He also added on 47 rushing yards on eight attempts on the ground too just to give fantasy managers even more production. Looking ahead to week five, Hurts certainly doesn’t have as easy of a matchup this week against the Carolina Panthers defense. The Panthers are allowing just 181.2 passing yards per game and only 19 fantasy points allowed. With that being said, Hurts is bringing a high enough floor as a runner that there’s no reason why he shouldn’t continue to be viewed as a top-12 option for fantasy. At this point, he belongs in your starting lineups as a mid-range QB1 due to the guaranteed production he’s bringing. You might not want to watch the game on account of it not always going to look the best, but he’s getting the job done for fantasy football regardless.

Carolina: Did someone tell Sam Darnold that he was Josh Allen?? As we all anticipated coming into the season, Darnold leads the entire NFL in rushing touchdowns. No, not just at the QB position…the entire league. The Panthers are getting creative with how they use Darnold in McCaffrey’s absence and he now has as many Inside-the-5 rush attempts as Kyler Murray on the year. He’s also producing through the air as well as he’s averaging nearly 300 passing yards and 1.25 passing touchdowns per contest. Darnold now gets to take on the defense that just surrendered five passing touchdowns to Patrick Mahomes in week four and is allowing 23.5 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. If Darnold’s red zone rushing production continues, he will continue to rise up Rest-of-Season rankings and he’s already pushing the top-12. In this matchup, Darnold can be viewed as a high-end QB2.

Running Backs

Philadelphia: How are fantasy managers feeling about Miles Sanders right now? After being hyped up coming into the season as a potential breakout player by many, Sanders has struggled to see enough work recently to even stay on the redraft radar. Over the last two weeks, Sanders has just had 15 total touches for 102 total yards and zero touchdowns. With Gainwell emerging in this backfield as a legitimate threat, Sanders is now moving into the territory where we might have to consider sitting him this week against the Panthers. If the Eagles are going to consistently be put in negative game scripts, Sanders is going to secede touches to Gainwell as the pass-catching option out of the backfield. Additionally, Gainwell is proving to be the more efficient red zone option as well, which completely eliminates any upside Sanders may have week in and week out. At this point, Sanders can’t be viewed as anything more than a mid-range/low-end RB3 due to volume concerns. Kenneth Gainwell is slowly starting to emerge as a legitimate fantasy option out of this backfield. With negative game scripts, Gainwell’s going to see the field a significant amount and he’s proving that he can excel with the opportunity. His upside is purely dependent upon the game script though, so it’s unlikely that we ever view Gainwell this season as a dependable RB2 every single matchup. In this game against the Panthers, the potential for a blowout victory for Carolina is there, but it’s not a certainty. Gainwell should remain involved enough this week to warrant RB3 consideration, but he still has a wide range of outcomes depending on how the game plays out. He’s not quite trustworthy enough just yet to put him into our starting lineups and feel comfortable.

Carolina: Chuba Hubbard stepped in last week in relief of Christian McCaffrey and he performed about as well as I anticipated. He saw 13 carries on the ground last week and averaged over 4.3 Yards Per Carry, but he was barely involved in the receiving game and saw just two targets. Fantasy managers that spent up on Hubbard and were anticipating CMC’s workload were bound to be disappointed, but that doesn’t mean that Hubbard still doesn’t present value. In a matchup against the Eagles defense that just saw CEH rumble for over 100 yards and seven Yards Per Attempt, Hubbard belongs in starting lineups this week again as a mid-range/low-end RB2. The upside isn’t as high due to his lack of involvement as a receiver, but the floor is going to be high due to the matchup. Rodney Smith was elevated off the practice squad last week for the Panthers and he ended up stepping in as the pass-catching option out of the backfield. He performed well with the opportunity and saw five targets in a game where the Panthers were playing from behind for a significant portion. The game script might not play out the same way this week, so we shouldn’t go chasing the volume that Smith had in week four. However, he’s worth picking up and playing in deeper PPR leagues where you’re absolutely in a pinch and simply need someone to fill a spot on your roster. Otherwise, he shouldn’t be considered. Update: There was hope that Christian McCaffrey would be able to return for week five, but he is now listed as doubtful. It’s likely that we see the Panthers wait one more week before bringing him back into the lineup.

Wide Receivers

Philadelphia: DeVonta Smith was projected to go off last week in a very plus matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, but he absolutely delivered on that hype. Smith had a 22.7% target share in week four and he turned that into seven receptions for 122 yards. Smith had a long touchdown grab too that was called back due to him being bumped slightly out of bounds, otherwise, he would have had a monstrous performance. We saw his talent on full display this past Sunday as he was consistently creating separation from defenders and making difficult catches look routine. Smith does have a bit tougher of a matchup this week against the Panthers’ defense that is allowing just 123 receiving yards per game to opposing WRs and just 18.5 fantasy points on average. He should draw primary coverage from Donte Jackson this week, who is allowing just .25 Fantasy Points Per Route Covered and has a very solid PFF Grade of 70.7. The target volume should be there again this week for Smith, but we’ve seen him struggle in tougher matchups so far this season. He should be viewed as just a mid-range WR3 that has a wide range of outcomes. Jalen Reagor was hyped up as a potential breakout player this past draft season, but it certainly has not come to fruition up to this point. Reagor is just the WR70 on the season and is seeing guys like Deonte Harris, Chester Rogers, and even his own teammate Watkins outperform him. This is a very skinny target tree in Philadelphia and Reagor’s not getting enough guaranteed work to be relevant week in and week out. He can be dropped to your league’s waiver wire at this point. Quez Watkins saw a significant target share last week in this offense, but he still wasn’t able to deliver on it with a solid performance. Watkins reeled in just three of his seven targets for only 33 yards and no score in a game where Hurts threw for 387 yards. Watkins has some big-play ability, but he’s simply not reliable enough to consider in our starting lineups this week. He can remain on your league’s waiver wire unless you’re in a 16-team format.

Carolina: DJ Moore: Fantasy Football Superstar. Coming into the season, the conversation with Moore always centered around his guaranteed target volume, but also the fact that he simply doesn’t score touchdowns. Moore had never scored more than four receiving touchdowns in a season and that was going to cap his upside for fantasy purposes. We’re now through four weeks of the 2021 season and Moore is already close to breaking through that four touchdown ceiling. He has three so far on the season and he’s now the WR4 in all of fantasy football. He is currently on pace for 178.5 targets, 127.5 receptions, 1,691.5 receiving yards, and 12.75 touchdowns. We know that those numbers are going to come down as the season progresses, but it’s absolutely absurd what he’s doing on the football field. In a matchup that just had Tyreek Hill roll for three touchdowns, Moore belongs in your starting lineup as a top-10 option this week. He might not score multiple touchdowns – like he did against Dallas in week four – but the target volume is among the best in the NFL. Fire him up with full confidence. Robby Anderson came back to life last week for fantasy purposes with a whopping 28.2% target share against the Cowboys. Unfortunately, this still only translated to five receptions for 46 yards and no score. Anderson did little to help out his QB and he ended the game with a 19.5 Passer Rating when targeted. The matchup indicates that Anderson should be in line for another significant target share and could have a good game here, but fantasy managers have zero confidence in the veteran receiver at this point. He’s nothing more than a FLEX option where you can live with the potential range of outcomes. Terrace Marshall was hyped up coming into the season as this potential breakout candidate, but that certainly has not been the case through four weeks. Marshall is the WR92 on the season and he is averaging just 2.75 receptions and 23.25 yards per game. At this point, it’s probably best to cut ties with Marshall and send him to the waiver wire.

Tight Ends

Philadelphia: Did you know that Zach Ertz is the TE6 over the past two weeks? Over the past two games, Ertz has now seen 15 targets for 10 receptions and 113 yards, and one score. He also should have had another touchdown added to that total as he was wide open in the end zone in week four, but Hurts sailed one over his head. Hurts is relying on his TEs heavily in this offense and it’s translating to a career resurgence for Ertz. In a TE landscape where fantasy managers are simply looking for volume at the position, Ertz is certainly worth considering for your starting lineup this week if you’re in a pinch. The volume seems to be locked-in at this point and he’s producing with the opportunity. He can be viewed as a mid-range TE2 this week. Dallas Goedert could be the TE1 in all of fantasy football if he was by himself in this offense, but even with Ertz in the picture, he’s performing well for fantasy purposes. Goedert saw five targets this past week against Kansas City and he reeled in all five for 56 yards and a score. While he won’t get to play the Chiefs every single week moving forward, and Ertz is now seeing more targets than him, he still has upside due to his involvement around the end zone. This week, the Eagles could be forced to throw the ball a significant amount yet again and Goedert could easily see enough work to finish in the high-end/mid-range TE2 territory.

Carolina: With the trade of Dan Arnold, it seemed as though Tommy Tremble was poised to see an increased role and potentially breakout. However, Tremble just saw one target to Ian Thomas‘ three and the duo combined for just 15 total receiving yards. The ball is going elsewhere in this offense and Tremble’s not worth holding on to in any format outside of deep Dynasty leagues.

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New Orleans Saints vs Washington Football Team

Date/Time: Sunday October 10, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Saints -1.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 44.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Saints 23, Washington 21.5

New Orleans Saints

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Jameis Winston 18/27 148 2.1 0.5 16 0.25 16
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Alvin Kamara 18 62 0.75 4 26 0.5 18.44
RB Dwayne Washington 4 16 0 0 0 0 1.56
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR Deonte Harris 0 0 0 4 40 0.35 8.05
WR Marquez Callaway 0 0 0 3 28 0.4 6.69
WR Ty Montgomery 0 0 0 2 17 0.1 3.34
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Adam Trautman 0 0 0 2 11 0.4 4.36

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Washington Football Team

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Taylor Heinicke 23/34 240 1.9 1.3 23 0.3 19
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Antonio Gibson 16 65 0.45 2 22 0.25 13.96
RB J.D. McKissic 5 16 0.25 3 33 0.1 8.49
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR Terry McLaurin 0 0 0 7 88 0.75 16.88
WR Curtis Samuel 0 0 0 3 34 0.35 7.22
WR Adam Humphries 0 0 0 3 18 0.2 4.57
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Ricky Seals-Jones 0 0 0 2 31 0.25 5.83

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Quarterback

New Orleans: Ever since the disaster of week two, Jameis Winston has been efficient and has taken care of the football. However, he has virtually zero upside for fantasy purposes with Taysom Hill coming in and stealing work around the goal-line as a runner. Winston is nothing more than a QB3 in Superflex formats that you’re hoping is able to connect with his receivers on long touchdowns so they don’t pull him out of the game in the red zone for Hill. That’s a risky place to live for fantasy football.

Washington: Taylor Heinicke is fun to watch. In a plus matchup last week, Heinicke came through for fantasy managers that rolled the dice with him as a streaming option and he put together some fun tape. He was constantly extending the play with his mobility and he was able to turn that into cheap fantasy production as well with 43 total rushing yards. While Heinicke was on the streaming radar in week four, he’s no longer in consideration this week against the Saints’ defense. While New Orleans is allowing 283.2 passing yards per game this season, they’re tightening things up in the red zone and only allowing 1.2 passing touchdowns on average. Heinicke might be able to have a decent game and provide value to some of the receiving options here, but it’s unlikely to translate to top-tier production for himself. He can be viewed as a low-end QB2 in week five.

Running Backs

New Orleans: October 3rd, 2021 is the first game in Alvin Kamara‘s career that he did not see a single target. He had three other performances up to this point where he saw one target, but this is the first game ever where Kamara was not even involved in the receiving game. However, Kamara’s 26 carries in week four of the 2021 NFL season were the most he has ever seen in his entire NFL career up to this point as well. Kamara has apparently turned into Derrick Henry and that was something that I was not even remotely prepared for coming into this season. In all seriousness, Kamara continues to get the job done for fantasy football despite the wacky usage. It might not be to the level that we anticipated coming into the season as he’s just the RB14 on the season in Half PPR scoring, but he’s still providing a high floor for fantasy managers at a position group where people are desperately searching for that. Against a Washington defense that’s allowing the 10th most fantasy points to opposing RBs, plus 1.2 receiving touchdowns to the position per game so far, Kamara should be in line for a big performance here.

Washington: While Antonio Gibson‘s fantasy managers are consistently pulling their hair out and wondering about what could be if Washington would simply feature him as a pass-catcher, he’s still producing for fantasy football. He’s now seen 26 carries over the past two weeks and he’s found the end zone in back-to-back games, which is enough to keep him in the low-end RB1 conversation. As mentioned before, we could see him push the top-5 every single week if he were involved in the Football Team’s two-minute drills, etc. but the coaching staff trusts McKissic more as a pass-blocker right now. Until we see Gibson emerge as the pass-catching favorite out of this backfield, we simply have to adjust our expectations for him week after week and recognize that he’s not going to come with the potential that we might wish. Looking ahead to week five, Gibson has a tough task in front of him against the Saints defense that is currently only allowing 66 rushing yards per game. With that being said, he should see enough volume this week to still be a safe option, but the upside may not be there again in this one. He can be viewed as a high-end RB2. JD McKissic was heavily involved this last week and put together a solid PPR performance that was capped by an incredible receiving touchdown late in the 4th quarter. While this could be a sign that McKissic’s fantasy stock is on the rise, we’ve seen this play out previously. He had 10 opportunities (carries + targets) in week two just to follow it up with five total opportunities in week three. His snap count hasn’t dramatically increased week after week (25 snaps in week three to 27 in week four), which makes it difficult to trust him as anything more than an RB3 play in Full PPR formats. He has the skillset to make a big play here or there, but we simply can’t trust him as anything more than a volatile fill-in option. Update: Gibson is reportedly dealing with a stress fracture in his shin, but he’s been playing through it. He’s listed as questionable for this game. If he plays, he’s still worth viewing as a mid-range/low-end RB2. If he doesn’t play, McKissic would move up into the top-24 conversation based on volume alone, but it’s still a tough matchup.

Wide Receivers

New Orleans: The New Orleans Saints had 10 players on offense record at least one target in week four and only one player saw more than three. This offense is too unpredictable to rely on any of the Saints’ WRs for fantasy purposes. They can all be avoided despite the plus matchup against Washington.

Washington: Does Heinicke know that there are other receivers on this team besides Terry McLaurin? If he doesn’t, don’t tell him! McLaurin is coming off of a game where he saw 39.4% of the team’s targets and he now has a 31.1% target share on the entire season. McLaurin delivered in a fantastic matchup last week with a 6-123-2 stat line and he’s been everything fantasy managers were hoping for – and more – when they selected him in their drafts. Looking ahead to week five, he should have a bit tougher time getting free this week against the Saints secondary, but we know the target share is going to be there to give an extremely high floor. With his talent, there’s no reason why we should downgrade McLaurin significantly based on any matchup. He’s a locked-in high-end WR2 this week. Curtis Samuel worked his way back into the lineup this past week and suited up for Washington for the first time. While he only ran 13 Receiving Routes in week four, he was targeted on four of them. This didn’t lead to significant production in his first game back, but it’s a good sign of what could potentially be on the horizon for him in this offense. He might struggle to deliver anything more than low-end FLEX value with McLaurin dominating so much of the target share, but he’s worth picking up and stashing on your bench to see what happens moving forward. He shouldn’t be played this week in anything outside of 16-team leagues though.

Tight Ends

New Orleans: None of the Saints TEs should be considered for fantasy football this week.

Washington: Logan Thomas has been placed on IR due to his hamstring injury. None of the backup TEs are worth considering for Washington.

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Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Date/Time: Sunday October 10, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Titans -4
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 48.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Titans 26.25, Jaguars 22.25

Tennessee Titans

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Ryan Tannehill 17/25 172 2.3 0.7 12 0.35 18
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Derrick Henry 23 108 0.9 3 27 0.4 22.95
RB Jeremy McNichols 4 14 0.2 2 12 0.2 6.08
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR A.J. Brown 0 0 0 4 55 0.75 12.1
WR Josh Reynolds 0 0 0 2 30 0.4 6.6
WR Chester Rogers 0 0 0 1 19 0.25 4.11
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Geoff Swaim 0 0 0 1 12 0.1 2.39

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Jacksonville Jaguars

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Trevor Lawrence 22/33 235 1.95 0.85 28 0.5 21
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB James Robinson 16 67 0.55 4 26 0.3 16.32
RB Carlos Hyde 4 16 0.15 1 7 0.1 4.49
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR Marvin Jones Jr. 0 0 0 5 58 0.55 11.7
WR Laviska Shenault Jr. 0 0 0 4 57 0.55 11.26
WR Tavon Austin 0 0 0 2 30 0.1 4.56
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Dan Arnold 0 0 0 3 33 0.25 6.15

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Quarterback

Tennessee: We’re now through four weeks and Ryan Tannehill is currently averaging only 263.5 passing yards, 1.25 passing touchdowns, and .75 interceptions. While not having Brown and Julio at full strength certainly plays a role in those numbers, it hasn’t been pretty for Tannehill so far this year. For someone that fantasy managers drafted with the hope of being able to set him in their starting lineups and then forget about it all year, that’s simply not the case anymore. Tannehill’s quickly moving away from that locked-in territory – if he hasn’t already – and he’s falling into the streaming conversation. With that being said, he’s absolutely still in the streaming conversation this week. At the time of writing, it’s unclear exactly who Tannehill will have available to him at receiver, so that will play a role in where exactly he lands in the QB rankings against Jacksonville. However, this is a fantastic matchup to start Tannehill, and feel confident that he’ll do enough to get the job done if you’re in a pinch. If one or both of his WRs return this week, Tannehill can be viewed as a high-end QB2. If they both miss though, he’s still in the conversation to start, but he’ll take a bit of a tumble down to a mid-range QB2.

Jacksonville: Trevor Lawrence was nearing the point where fantasy managers were completely ready to write him off for this season. Even in Superflex leagues, I was getting the questions about whether or not it was worth holding onto him still moving forward. We got a glimmer of hope for what he can be for fantasy last week though on Thursday night against the Bengals. Lawrence looked sharp and posted a 70.8% completion rate and just over 200 yards while adding 36 rushing yards and a score on eight carries. Urban Meyer utilizing Lawrence’s rushing ability is what fantasy managers have been hoping for the entire season so far and we got to see it on the national stage. If that continues, we should see Lawrence bring a safe floor each week where we can live with the ups and downs of a rookie campaign. Against Tennessee, Lawrence can be viewed as a mid-range/low-end QB2 that could be plugged in as a streaming option in 1QB formats if you’re in a pinch.

Running Backs

Tennessee: To no one’s surprise, Derrick Henry currently leads the entire NFL in Yards After Contact with 365. The next closest player only has 255. It’s absolutely unreal what Henry is doing right now and he’s – without a doubt – the most consistent fantasy option in the game currently. Based on his stats up to this point, Henry is now on pace for 480 rush attempts, 2,168 rushing yards, 17 rushing touchdowns, 55 targets, 51 receptions, 446 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. It’s absurd how good Henry is and the type of volume that he receives any given week. In a matchup that he has historically dominated in (Henry has faced the Jaguars 10 times in his career and has ran for over 150 yards in three of those games), he’s a no-brainer start as the consensus RB1. We could be in line for yet another massive performance this week.

Jacksonville: With Carlos Hyde inactive last week, James Robinson played 95% of the offensive snaps and was spectacular for fantasy purposes. He shouldered a heavy workload for this offense and was a big reason why they were up so big in the first half of that game. He saw 18 carries for 78 yards and he found the end zone twice. Over the last two weeks combined, Robinson has now seen 33 carries for 166 yards and three scores while adding on eight targets in the passing game. If this type of workload continues for him – and there’s very little reason to believe that it won’t – he belongs in the weekly high-end RB2 conversation. Against the Titans this week, Robinson has top-5 upside again.

Wide Receivers

Tennessee: At the time of writing, it’s unclear whether or not AJ Brown and Julio Jones are going to be able to suit up this week. Check back later on this week for an update once more information is released. Update: Brown is set to return to the lineup this week against the Jaguars and he belongs right back in starting lineups as a mid-range WR2 with upside. Julio has been ruled OUT.

Jacksonville: With DJ Chark heading towards IR with a fractured ankle, the target share opens up a bit in this offense. Marvin Jones had been dominating the target share prior to last week, but he took a step back in production as Shenault was Lawrence’s most heavily targeted player. Jones only saw three targets and he reeled in all of them for just 24 yards in week four. Looking forward, against a secondary that is getting gashed by opposing passing attacks, Jones absolutely belongs in your starting lineup as a high-end WR3 with upside. We should see the targets start to balance out again here and he could end up with a massive performance. Laviska Shenault had been relegated to fantasy managers’ benches with his performance through the first three weeks. He simply wasn’t seeing enough work in this poor Jacksonville offense, which meant that his talent wasn’t being utilized properly. With Chark going down with an injury early on last week though, Shenault emerged as put together a 6-99-0 performance on seven targets. Moving forward, there are very few other options in this offense that are going to be able to command targets the way that Jones and Shenault will, which makes them absolutely fantasy relevant. We should see Jones re-emerge as the WR1 from a target share perspective, but there still should be plenty of opportunity available for Shenault in a plus matchup. He can be viewed as a low-end WR3/high-end FLEX option for week five.

Tight Ends

Tennessee: None of the Titans TEs should be considered for fantasy football in this matchup.

Jacksonville: Dan Arnold showed that he can fill the much-needed role in this offense for Jacksonville in his limited opportunity last week and we should see his target share increase as we move forward. With that being said, it’s not going to be reliable enough to trust just yet for fantasy purposes. He’s worth picking up and stashing in TE-Premium formats, but we can’t start him yet in our 1TE leagues.

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Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date/Time: Sunday October 10, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Buccaneers -10.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 48 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Buccaneers 29.25, Dolphins 18.75

Miami Dolphins

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Jacoby Brissett 25/40 236 2.05 1.3 8 0.15 17
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Myles Gaskin 6 27 0.1 3 18 0.25 8.11
RB Malcolm Brown 7 22 0.25 2 12 0.1 6.33
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR Jaylen Waddle 0 0 0 7 63 0.3 11.66
WR DeVante Parker 0 0 0 5 61 0.45 11.09
WR Albert Wilson 0 0 0 2 17 0.1 3.16
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Mike Gesicki 0 0 0 5 45 0.5 9.75

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

POS NAME COMP/ATT PASS YDS TDs INTs RUSH YDS TDs FPTS
QB Tom Brady 25/37 296 2.85 0.25 1 0.1 23
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
RB Leonard Fournette 13 53 0.5 4 27 0.2 14.05
RB Ronald Jones II 9 34 0.45 0 0 0 6.1
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
WR Chris Godwin 0 0 0 6 77 0.6 14.23
WR Mike Evans 0 0 0 5 58 0.7 12.35
WR Antonio Brown 0 0 0 4 63 0.5 11.44
POS NAME CARRIES RUSH YDS TDs RECS REC YDS TDs FPTS
TE Cameron Brate 0 0 0 4 35 0.5 8.26

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Quarterback

Miami: Jacoby Brissett‘s doing just enough to hang around the low-end QB2 territory, but there’s virtually no upside with the way this offense is performing currently. The garbage time production could be there this week – and the matchup is good on paper – but we can’t trust Brissett in our lineups as anything more than a low-end QB2.

Tampa Bay: Well, I’m going to be honest with you all here for a moment. I confidently believed that we were going to see Tom Brady set the world on fire in week four in his return to New England. He was a top-5 option in my QB rankings and I expected to see a lot more production than what we actually got. Instead of witnessing multiple passing touchdowns, we saw Brady barely cross over 250 passing yards on the day and zero total scores. Whether it was the weather, nerves, Belichick, or whatever else could have potentially played a role, Brady struggled in week four, and fantasy managers were left with a QB28 performance on the week. After throwing for nine touchdowns and 655 yards in the first two games of the season, Brady has now just thrown one touchdown pass in the past two games combined. In a matchup now against the Miami Dolphins defense that’s allowing just 20.8 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, we should be at least concerned about Brady for fantasy purposes. He can be viewed as a mid-range/low-end QB1 in week five.

Running Backs

Miami: Myles Gaskin had been providing fantasy managers with a high floor week after week, but that all came crashing down this past game against Indianapolis. Gaskin went from 43 total snaps in week three to just 12 with no warning for fantasy managers whatsoever. At the time of writing, there’s been no clarity on whether or not this was injury-related but all signs point to Gaskin being fully healthy. Gaskin now needs to be sat in every single format due to the unknowns with his usage. Additionally, the Dolphins take on the Bucs run defense this week which is a matchup to avoid regardless. No other Dolphins RB should be considered this week either.

Tampa Bay: Up until this point of the season, this backfield had been an absolute headache to try and interpret every single week. However, with Giovani Bernard out of the picture in week four, things got a little bit clearer and we actually had some fantasy relevance come out of this position group. With the passing game struggling to get anything going on Sunday night, the Bucs turned to Leonard Fournette and he delivered for fantasy managers that took the chance on him. Fournette saw 20 carries for 91 yards and he also added on three receptions for 47 yards on five targets too. While Jones found the end zone last week, Fournette brought an extremely high floor for fantasy purposes and he was a solid play against the Patriots. While Fournette’s fantasy outlook for week five hinges on Bernard’s availability – which we do not have clarity on at the time of writing – he’s moving up the rankings due to the fact that Bruce Arians finally seems to trust him to shoulder the workload for this offense. Against the Miami Dolphins defense that has now given up 123.8 rushing yards per game on average so far this season, Fournette has the potential to be a top-20 play. There’s still a ton of risk involved so we can’t confidently start him, but if you’re in need of an RB play this week and Fournette’s available on your bench, it might be time to consider plugging him into your lineup. Ronald Jones had plenty of hype coming into the season, but he’s completely taken a back seat now to Fournette in this backfield. Fournette saw 25 total opportunities in week four against the Patriots and Jones was simply left with six total carries. He did find the end zone, which certainly hurt the upside of Fournette, but it’s not substantial enough volume to provide fantasy relevance to Jones himself. He’s off the FLEX conversation this week and should remain on your bench.

Wide Receivers

Miami: DeVante Parker is quietly providing a very high floor for fantasy managers this season. He now has 30 targets through four games and is averaging 60.5 receiving yards per contest. The upside isn’t exactly present with the offense sputtering the way it has over the last two weeks, but the target volume has been consistent enough to warrant FLEX consideration in deeper formats. In a matchup against the Bucs defense that’s allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this season, Parker’s worth taking a look at. After seeing 13 targets in week three, Jaylen Waddle was inexcusably involved to the tune of just four total targets in week four. Waddle has remained incredibly efficient with his opportunity – as evidenced by his 86.2% catch rate on the season – but he has not been the YAC threat that we all anticipated coming into the season. Through four weeks, Waddle is just averaging 4.8 Yards After the Catch per Reception to go with just his 3.8 ADOT. With this low Average Depth of Target, plus the fact that he’s not creating a ton on his own after the catch, Waddle has to be downgraded if he’s not going to receive the type of target volume we all assumed he would after week three’s performance. This matchup indicates that we shouldn’t drop Waddle too far down rankings though. The Bucs are bleeding fantasy points to opposing WRs and Waddle should see his volume tick back up in this one. He can be viewed as a low-end WR3. Update: Parker is now listed as a game-time decision as he’s dealing with a hamstring injury. If he plays, he’s worth looking at as a low-end FLEX play, but that’s it. This could bother him throughout the game.

Tampa Bay: Since his dud performance in week one, Mike Evans has rebounded in a big way and is giving fantasy managers an extremely consistent floor. Evans has now seen 31 targets over the past three weeks and he’s averaging 85 receiving yards per game over that time span. While he hasn’t found the end zone since his two-touchdown performance in week two, it hasn’t much mattered due to the guaranteed volume he’s been getting. While there’s always the possibility that the target share takes a dip in favor of a player with a better matchup in this offense, Evans has now moved into rock-solid WR2 territory. Brady’s locking onto him and we know that he has the talent to come through when he’s given the opportunity. Against the Dolphins, Evans should draw coverage from Xavien Howard primarily in this game which is certainly a tougher matchup. As mentioned before though, the volume is too high to look elsewhere for your starting lineup. He’s producing for your fantasy rosters so far and he deserves to be started yet again here. Chris Godwin faded to the background a bit in week four as he watched Evans and Brown both finish with 10+ targets, while he only received five throughout the course of the game. Godwin was highly involved in the offense though and ran an equal number of Receiving Routes (43) to Evans against the Patriots, so it was simply that Brady must have liked the matchup more for Evans and Brown. Regardless, there’s no reason to panic over a mediocre performance from one of fantasy football’s most consistent receiving options. Godwin should see his workload tick back up this week against Miami and he has the most favorable matchup on the field against Justin Coleman out of the slot. Coleman is allowing a 92% catch rate so far this season and an absurdly high 2.01 Yards Per Route Covered, which signals that Godwin should be able to get open routinely. We could be in line for a big bounce-back performance from the talented wideout. He can be viewed as a mid-range WR2 this week with upside. Antonio Brown‘s certainly had an interesting start to the 2021 season. He came out on fire in week one, disappointed fantasy managers in week two in a plus matchup, missed week three due to COVID protocols and then saw 11 targets in week four against his former team. It’s been difficult to pinpoint exactly what Brown is going to do any given week, but the upside is always there due to the offense that he plays in. With that being said, Brown is expected to draw primary coverage from Byron Jones this week. Jones is currently only allowing .18 Fantasy Points Per Route Run and a 55% catch rate. The Dolphins are going to have their hands full with all of the receiving weapons the Bucs have to offer, but Jones should be able to keep Brown in check in this one. Of course, Brown comes with upside due to his connection with Brady, but we shouldn’t be viewing him as anything more than a mid-range WR3 to account for the matchup.

Tight Ends

Miami: After barely being on the field in week one, Mike Gesicki has rebounded in a big way over the past three weeks. He now has 24 targets in that time frame and 184 receiving yards to go with a touchdown. He’s steadily working his way back into the trustworthy conversation and he should have plenty of opportunity again this week against the Bucs defense that’s allowing the 6th most fantasy points to opposing TEs. He can be viewed as a low-end TE1 this week with upside.

Tampa Bay: At the time of writing, it’s unclear as to whether or not Rob Gronkowski is going to return to the lineup this week against the Dolphins. If Gronk does return to the lineup, it means that he’s healthy enough to be out there and be effective, which means that he belongs back in your starting lineups as a low-end TE1. If Gronkowski misses this game though, it’s probably best to view Cameron Brate as nothing more than a low-end TE2. Update: Gronk has been ruled OUT for this matchup.

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