Cincinnati Bengals vs Detroit Lions
Date/Time: Sunday October 17, 1:00pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Bengals -3.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 47.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Bengals 25.5, Lions 22
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow: When the Lions lost CB Jeff Okudah and edge rusher Romeo Okwara to season-ending Achilles injuries, it seemed as if the Detroit pass defense would be one to target in fantasy. Opponents have indeed been very efficient through the air against Detroit: The Lions’ opponent passer rating of 110.9 is third-worst in the league. Yet Detroit is allowing 17.7 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, a below-average total. How can that be? Well, Detroit is the only team in the league to have faced more rushing attempts than passing attempts this season, 147 to 143. The Lions have trailed so often that opponents have been trying to chew clock against them in the second halves of games. Burrow investors could potentially be thwarted by that type of a game script this Sunday, but it’s still exciting to think about Burrow throwing to loosely covered WRs Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. In a way, Burrow’s season has mirrored that of the defense he’s about to face. His efficiency numbers are impressive – a 71.7% rate, a 7.6% TD rate, and an average of 8.8 yards per pass attempt – but Burrow is tied for 26th in pass attempts with 145. The subdued passing volume has him sitting at QB17 in fantasy scoring. He checks in as the QB11 in this week’s rankings. His $6,300 price tag on DraftKings seems a bit too expensive considering the lack of rushing potential.
Jared Goff: Goff has failed to produce a touchdown in two of his last three games, having gone scoreless against the Ravens in Week 3 and the Vikings in Week 5. In the four games since his volume-fueled 338-yard, three-TD game against the 49ers in Week 1, Goff has been the QB28 in fantasy scoring. His outlook isn’t especially bright this week against Cincinnati, which has been respectable against the pass and has been playing at a glacial pace that reduces overall play volume for both the Bengals and their opponents. Goff is my QB22 this week.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon, Samaje Perine, and Chris Evans: Mixon has been dealing with a low-grade high-ankle sprain and handled a reduced workload in Week 5, carrying 10 times for 33 yards and a touchdown. He was able to practice Wednesday for the first time since Week 4, so perhaps he’ll be back to a full workload in Week 6. Perine has been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, and it’s not clear if he’ll be able to come off by Sunday. If not, Evans will operate as the primary backup. That role could have value this week with Mixon still not 100% and with the Bengals favored by 3.5 against the Lions, suggesting the possibility of a run-friendly game script. Detroit’s run defense ranks 28th in DVOA and is giving up a league-high 25.8 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Even with the uncertain workload, Mixon is still a must-start in season-long leagues. I have him ranked RB12. At $6,400 on DraftKings, he’s not getting enough of an injury discount to interest me.
D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams: Swift’s snap share continues to climb, topping out at 74% last week in Minnesota. As good as he looked against the Vikings, he probably should have had more than 17 touches. Swift finished with 11-51-1 rushing and 6-53-0 receiving. For the season, Swift is averaging 10.4 carries a game and has drawn at least five targets in every game. Expect similar usage this week in a neutral matchup against the Bengals. Swift checks in at RB10 in the rankings and is a good DraftKings value at $6,300. Jamaal Williams has averaged 13 carries over Detroit’s last three games, but his usage in the passing game has really tapered off. Williams caught 8 of 9 targets in the season opener and 3 of 3 targets in Week 2. Since then he’s seen only four targets in three games. Now that he’s mostly just a runner, Williams isn’t an appealing play against a Bengals defense that PFF grades out as seventh-best against the run. He’s ranked RB32.
Wide Receivers
Ja’Marr Chase: Chase scored yet another touchdown last week, his fifth of the season. It was a 70-yarder, his longest of the season, and four of the rookie’s touchdowns have covered 34 yards or more. Chase is averaging 15.1 fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR), making him the WR6 on the season. He’ll be a problematic matchup for any of the Detroit defensive backs who face him Sunday. Chase is a no-brainer start in season-long leagues. The only question is whether to trot him out in DFS lineups. At $6,700 on DraftKings, he isn’t cheap, but Chase has obvious smash potential and is worth considering for both cash games and GPPs.
Tee Higgins: After missing two games with a shoulder injury, Higgins returned to action in Week 5 and had 5-32-0 against the Packers on seven targets. The presence of Chase is going to tamp down Higgins’ fantasy potential over the long haul, but Higgins is still an exciting young player capable of erupting at any time. Treat him as a high-end WR3 this week. The matchup against Detroit is a good one, but Cincinnati’s slow offensive pace (the Bengals rank last in the league in seconds per play) and the possibility of a run-heavy game script keep our Week 6 enthusiasm for Higgins in check.
Tyler Boyd: In the three games Tee Higgins has played this season, Boyd has averaged 6.0 targets. In the two games Higgins has missed, Boyd has averaged 8.5 targets. Those are small sample sizes, but the numbers are telling. When Boyd had 1,000-yard seasons in 2018 and 2019, finishing WR17 and WR23 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring, he averaged 7.7 and 9.3 targets per game, respectively. He slipped to 7.3 targets per game in 2020 and finished WR35. Further target slippage could push his value out of WR3 range, and the arrival of Ja’Marr Chase certainly jeopardizes Boyd’s target share. He’s a low-end WR3 this week.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: The rookie from USC has produced 6-70-0 and 7-65-0 over his last two games. He saw eight targets in both of those games, and with Quintez Cephus breaking his collarbone in Week 5, the steady diet of targets should continue for St. Brown. He falls just outside of WR4 range this week, but I do think St. Brown has some appeal as a $4,200 supersaver option on DraftKings. With Cephus on the shelf, St. Brown is the only fantasy-viable receiver the Lions have at the moment. Tyrell Williams has been on IR with a concussion since Week 2. He’s eligible to return this week, but Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reports that Williams is still dealing with concussion symptoms and not close to returning.
Tight Ends
C.J. Uzomah: Uzomah followed up his 95-yard, two-TD outburst against the Jaguar in Week 4 with a more typical 2-16-0 stat line in Week 5. Uzomah has drawn two or fewer targets in all but the Jacksonville game. He’s a high-end TE3 at best.
T.J. Hockenson: A knee injury clearly has Hockenson at less than 100% these days. He missed practice Wednesday and isn’t a lock to play in Week 6. After bursting out of the gates with 8-97-1 and 8-66-1 in his first two games, Hockenson has totaled a combined 8-74-0 in the three games since. I have him ranked TE4 against a Bengals defense giving up just 4.3 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, but Hockenson could finish well out of TE1 range and won’t be in any of my DFS lineups this week.
Arizona Cardinals vs Cleveland Browns
Date/Time: Sunday October 17, 4:05pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Browns -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 49.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Browns 26.25, Cardinals 23.25
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray: From weeks 1-3, Murray was the overall QB1 in fantasy football. He was absolutely lighting up opposing defenses and there didn’t seem to be any team that could slow him down. However, from weeks 4-5, Murray is just the QB17 and he’s only averaging 18.14 fantasy points per contest. The 49ers kept him in check this past week as he only accounted for 240 total yards (passing + rushing) and one touchdown, but he has the chance to blow those numbers out of the water this week against the Browns. Cleveland is coming off of a loss to the Los Angeles Chargers where they saw Justin Herbert throw for nearly 400 yards, four touchdowns, and also add another touchdown on the ground. While we can’t expect Murray to hit those types of numbers, this should be a good spot to expect a bounce-back performance from Murray from a fantasy perspective. He can be viewed as a mid-range QB1 this week.
Baker Mayfield: After putting up a dud performance in week four against the Vikings, Mayfield’s fantasy managers were very hesitant about playing him against the stout Chargers pass defense. However, he came through with one of the better performances of his young career. Mayfield threw for just over 300 yards and two touchdowns to zero interceptions and he helped keep his team in a tough battle all the way until the end. The game script played a huge part in Mayfield’s inflated stats though, but there is the possibility that the same thing happens here against the Cardinals. This could be a battle all the way down to the wire and Mayfield could be forced to throw more than he’s used to doing. However, we simply can’t rely on that for fantasy and Mayfield needs volume to be relevant in 1QB formats. It’s best to view him as a mid-range/low-end QB2 this week against a Cardinals defense that’s allowing just 18.6 fantasy points per game and only 229.4 passing yards per contest.
Running Backs
James Conner: Conner is certainly a game-script-dependent RB, but how many game scripts are the Cardinals going to be in this year where they’re not playing with some sort of big lead? Conner will certainly have to find the end zone to crack the top-24, but there’s a very good chance of that happening as he’s currently tied for the second-most touchdowns at the position. The Browns have been pretty stingy to opposing RBs so far this season, but they just got gashed by Austin Ekeler this past week for multiple scores. With all that being said, Conner is a mid-range RB3 for this week.
Chase Edmonds: Edmonds was banged up with a shoulder injury coming into last week’s contest and he saw a reduced workload as a result. He finished with just 10 total opportunities and it only resulted in 34 total yards, but after being a week removed from the injury, Edmonds should see closer to his normal workload this week and he can be put back into the low-end RB2/high-end RB3 conversation.
Nick Chubb: We’re now through five weeks and Chubb has yet to finish a game with less than 83 rushing yards. He’s now averaging 104.6 yards per game and nearly a touchdown per contest, which is about as high of a floor as you’re going to find at the RB position this season. While he is essentially a massive safety blanket for fantasy managers, he’s not coming with much upside due to his lack of involvement as a receiver. We knew that this was going to be the case coming into the year, but it is shocking to see now that Chubb is on pace for only 17 receptions and 119 receiving yards. Chubb will need to continue to average his ridiculous 5.8 Yards Per Carry all season long to provide weekly upside. In a matchup against the Cardinals this week, who are allowing the 8th-fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season with 12.4 per game, Chubb probably doesn’t come with week-winning upside. But he’s still a rock-solid start as a low-end RB1. Update: Chubb has been ruled out for Week 6
Kareem Hunt: Here are Hunt’s averages over the last three games: 12 rush attempts, 70.33 rushing yards, 1.33 rushing touchdowns, 5.66 targets, 39.66 receiving yards, and zero receiving touchdowns. Over that time frame, Hunt is the RB5 in fantasy football. Despite being the second option in this backfield, Hunt has absolutely produced in a big way for fantasy lineups and he’s been a rock-solid option as an RB2. While the game script might not play out as favorably this week for the Browns, Hunt should still remain in starting lineups due to his involvement. He certainly needs to find the end zone to push his way into the top-12 though and the Cardinals are only allowing .2 rushing touchdowns per game on average so far this season. We might not have that upside this week, but we know that he comes with a high floor. He can be viewed as a mid-range RB2 in week six. Update: Hunt is expected to be the lead option in this backfield with Chubb ruled out for week six. However, Hunt is currently listed as questionable. If Hunt plays, he can be viewed as a mid-range RB1. If Hunt sits, expect D’Ernest Johnson and Demetric Felton to shoulder the workload on the ground. Both players move into the high-end RB3 conversation.
Wide Receivers
DeAndre Hopkins: When fantasy managers draft a WR with a premium pick, they hope that they finish at – or around – where they selected them at the end of the season. This makes sense, right? There are two ways that players can reach that top-tier fantasy finish though…one can be by providing big performances here or there spattered throughout the season, but they may have disappeared some weeks. This is most famously exemplified by a player like Tyler Lockett. The other way that players finish as a top-12 option at their respective position is by being incredibly consistent week in and week out. They might not always provide huge week-winning performances, but there’s a lot to be said for knowing what you’re going to get when you put someone in your starting lineup. Hopkins is a perfect example of the second way to finish as a top-tier fantasy asset. Outside of his game against Jacksonville this year – where he most likely wasn’t 100% – Hopkins hasn’t finished with less than 54 receiving yards in any single game. Despite consistently drawing the toughest coverage on the defense, he’s continued to produce rock-solid numbers. It may not be always to the level of what we thought we were getting when we drafted Nuk as a top-5 WR, but he’s going to absolutely finish as a top-tier option at the end of the year. In this matchup against Cleveland this week that just got torched by the Chargers passing game, Hopkins can be viewed as a mid-range/low-end WR1.
AJ Green: Going into last week, all the conversation had been centered around how Green might be the most consistent receiving option on the Cardinals. Well, despite playing 80% of the snaps in week five, Green saw just two targets and he reeled in one of them for 13 yards. We thought that we had clarity on what the offensive target distribution was going to look like here in Arizona, but now it’s back to the drawing board. At this point, Hopkins is the only safe WR to plug into your starting lineup. Otherwise, every other option comes with a wide range of outcomes. Green is outside start-worthy consideration this week.
Christian Kirk: After completely disappearing in week four against the Rams, Kirk came back to life and saw a 17.9% target share in week five. While this only turned into 39 total receiving yards, it is encouraging to see Kirk’s involvement move back up. With that being said, there’s no predictability with the other receiving weapons in this offense after Hopkins. With the injury to Maxx Williams, we could see Kirk’s target share increase slightly, but that’s too much of a risk to take in our starting lineups this week. Kirk is nothing more than a low-end FLEX play that has the possibility of completely falling flat.
Rondale Moore: WR53, WR5, WR105, WR68, and WR26. These are Moore’s fantasy finishes through the first five weeks of the season. He’s an incredibly exciting player and a ton of fun to watch with the ball in his hands, but there is absolutely no predicting what type of production we’re going to get from him week in and week out. He’s slowly starting to see his snap count percentage increase, but it’s still just under 50% while Green is seeing around 80% of the snaps in this offense each game. With the injury to Williams at the TE position, and no proven depth behind him, there’s the possibility that we see more and more 4WR sets from this offense, but that’s not a guarantee. Until we start to witness Moore’s snap percentage tick up to around 60%, he’s going to be an incredibly volatile FLEX option week in and week out. If you do end up playing Moore in your starting lineup this week, you need to be prepared for the wide range of outcomes.
Odell Beckham Jr: Can someone please explain to me how – in a game where the Browns put up 42 points – OBJ had just three targets? After seeming like he was going to be a key part of this offense after reeling in five receptions in his first game back from injury, Beckham has now had just four receptions over the last two weeks combined. He’s seeing players like Higgins and Peoples-Jones outproduce him on his own team and there seems to be no logical explanation for it. As of right now, OBJ has to be downgraded until we see consecutive strong performances from him. In this matchup against Arizona, he’s nothing more than a high-end FLEX play.
Rashard Higgins: Higgins has always had the talent to be a factor for fantasy football, but he’s never been given the opportunity to remain a focal point of a team’s offense. However, over the past two weeks, Higgins has now seen 12 targets over the past two weeks and combined and he’s remained involved in the offense from a snap count perspective. While we can’t view him as a trustworthy start just yet, the arrow is pointing up for the young WR and we might want to take notice as we move forward.
Donovan Peoples-Jones: Peoples-Jones showcased his talent level on multiple occasions this past week and it translated to five receptions for 70 yards, which is a good day at the office for the second-year WR. While people might look at those numbers and believe that that’s an indication of what could be to come, it’s important to note that the usage is in this offense is often unpredictable. In week four, DPJ was on the field for 59% of the offensive snaps and he received zero targets. However, in week five he was on the field for 68% of the snaps and he saw six total targets. While we can look to other offenses across the league and point to snap counts as an indicator of future success, that’s simply not the case in this Browns offense. For right now, DPJ is merely just a bench stash in Dynasty leagues. He can’t be trusted in redraft lineups just yet.
Tight Ends
David Njoku: Njoku had a monstrous performance in week five as he reeled in all seven of his targets for a whopping 149 yards and a score…and he most likely did it on your bench or your league’s waiver wire. Up until last week, Njoku had done next to nothing from a fantasy perspective. He had a total of just 10 targets through the previous four weeks and there was no reason to roster him outside of deep Dynasty leagues. While there’s the potential that Njoku comes out in week six against the Cardinals and puts together another decent performance, there’s the more likely scenario that he goes back to seeing just two or three targets. It’s probably best to leave Njoku on your bench until we start to see him string together consecutive strong performances.
Austin Hooper: Hooper played 72% of the offensive snaps for the Browns in week five and he finished with a staggering zero targets. At this point, Hooper should be on your league’s waiver wire if he isn’t already.
Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots
Date/Time: Sunday October 17, 4:25pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Cowboys -4
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 51 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Cowboys 27.5, Patriots 23.5
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott: Through the first five weeks of the 2021 NFL season, it’s clear that Prescott has taken his game to another level. He’s confident and commanding at the line of scrimmage and he’s continuously making the right reads. Up to this point of the season, Prescott only has been credited with five Turnover Worthy Plays, which is a stat measured by Pro Football Focus. For comparison, Josh Allen has been credited with nine. Prescott is making big-time play after big-time play and the offense is thriving as a result. While he’s only averaging 33 pass attempts per game – which is limiting his overall upside for fantasy football – he’s still producing in a big way with his touchdown production. He now has 13 passing touchdowns on the season, which is tied with Justin Herbert for the third-most in the entire league. With all that being taken into account, he now gets to take on the Patriots pass defense that just allowed Davis Mills to throw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. We could see the Cowboys lean into their run game yet again here, but the upside is certainly there. He can be viewed as a low-end QB1 yet again.
Mac Jones: We’re now through five weeks of this NFL season and things aren’t looking too great for the No. 15 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. While Jones has certainly shown flashes here or there, it’s not translating to high-level statistics. Jones is averaging just 6.5 Yards Per Attempt, he has a 1:1 TD/INT ratio, and he’s averaging under 250 passing yards per game. There’s enough to build upon for him to be a solid game-manager at the next level, but that’s not what we look for from a fantasy perspective. Against the defense that is averaging 2.0 interceptions per game this season – the highest mark in the league – it’s probably best to leave Jones on your bench even in Superflex formats.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott: Fantasy managers that spite-traded Elliott away after his week one performance have to be absolutely kicking themselves right now. Over Zeke’s last two games, he is averaging 20.5 rush attempts, 126.5 rushing yards, and one rushing touchdown per game. While he still isn’t extremely involved in the receiving game, he was able to reel in an additional receiving touchdown last week on one of his three targets just to add a little extra salt in the wound. In all seriousness, Zeke has been a force for fantasy football this entire season outside of the game against Tampa Bay and there’s no reason to believe that that will change any time soon. The Cowboys are incredibly committed to their run game this season and both Zeke and Pollard are seeing plenty of work. The Patriots have been pretty tough on opposing RBs so far this season, but they have yet to face a rushing attack like the one Dallas possesses. Fire up Zeke as a top-5 RB yet again in this one.
Tony Pollard: Here are Pollard’s total touches each week so far this season: 7, 16, 12, 10, and 18. He certainly doesn’t have the upside for fantasy that many other options do at the position who see more volume, but he’s proving that he’s an incredibly consistent option for fantasy lineups. As fantasy managers are scrambling to figure out their RB2 spot every single week, Pollard’s actually one of the more reliable and steady options for that spot. He’s playing in a high-powered offense, he has a guaranteed role, and we know he has the talent to make those touches count. To prove this point, Pollard leads all RBs in the NFL in Yards Per Carry with 6.4 (min. 50 rush attempts). Based on the way he’s been playing recently, he has to be elevated into the weekly high-end RB3 conversation. In this matchup against New England, Pollard’s certainly worth starting if you’ve got him on your roster and you’re in need of help at the RB spot.
Damien Harris: Harris was inches away last week from having two touchdowns. Instead, the play was reversed and Harris went from having six additional points to losing two due to a fumble right at the goal-line. Thankfully, he was able to come through for fantasy purposes and find the end zone in a plus matchup before leaving with an injury, which he is still reportedly dealing with this week. We’ll need to monitor the practice reports this week for Harris, but if he does play, he’s worth starting as a low-end RB2.
Rhamondre Stevenson: Stevenson wasn’t efficient in his opportunity last week, but he saw plenty of volume once Harris left the game with an injury. If Harris is unable to go in this matchup, Stevenson can be started as a high-end RB3 purely based on volume.
Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper: Through the first five games of 2020, Cooper had amassed a total of 55 targets and he was the WR13 in fantasy football. Through the first five weeks this year, Cooper has only seen 34 targets, but he’s still the WR14 in fantasy football due to his touchdown production. Cooper now has four touchdowns on the season, which is certainly offsetting the lack of target volume that he’s been getting. With Prescott playing as sharp as he is so far this season, there’s no reason to believe that Cooper’s production will fall off at any point. He’s one of Prescott’s favorite targets in the red zone and we know that he has the talent to make those opportunities count. In a matchup against the Patriots’ secondary that just got torched by the Texans last week, fire up Cooper as a high-end WR2 yet again.
CeeDee Lamb: Fantasy managers desperately needed that performance from Lamb last week, didn’t they? After disappointing in both weeks three and four, managers were starting to panic over Lamb and his place in their starting lineups. However, he came through with a big outing (4-84-1) and all is right again in the world. Looking ahead to week six, Lamb should draw coverage from J.C. Jackson this week and Jackson is allowing a very high 1.92 Yards Per Route Covered this season. Taking all of that into account, Prescott should be able to put together a solid outing here in this game and that means that Lamb should be at the forefront of it. He deserves to be viewed as a mid-range/low-end WR2 with upside here.
Jakobi Meyers: Meyers continues to be a key part of this offense in New England, but it’s not exactly translating to much from a fantasy perspective. Meyers is bringing a safe floor each week, but he has yet to find the end zone now on 116 career receptions. With Jones playing QB, there’s very little upside with Meyers from a fantasy perspective and he’s merely just a high-end FLEX play in Full PPR formats at this point.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz and Blake Jarwin: Up to this point of the season, all the talk with Schultz had centered around the snap and target split with Jarwin in this offense. With Jarwin hanging around and stealing away some of the targets to the TE position, it was difficult to completely buy-in on Schultz from a fantasy perspective. However, we now have the clarity that we’ve been waiting for and Schultz is a massive beneficiary of it. Last week, Jarwin saw his snap share decrease from 56% and 54% the two weeks prior to just 40% in week five. Additionally, Jarwin failed to register a single target, while Schultz saw eight and led the team. With Jarwin now seemingly out of the picture as a threat to Schultz’s receiving workload, there’s no reason to not rank Schultz as a TE1 every single week moving forward. In this game against the Patriots, Schultz can be viewed as a low-end TE1.
Hunter Henry: Henry has started to steadily see his target share increase in this offense as the season has progressed and he’s becoming a viable fantasy asset because of it. He’s on the field for the majority of the snaps and he’s being sent out as a receiver 27 routes per game on average, which is leading to plenty of opportunity. While he took advantage of a plus matchup last week in Houston, there’s no reason at this point that we shouldn’t view Henry as a mid-range TE2 every single week. Unless we see Smith suddenly become heavily involved in this offense, Henry should be a safe option moving forward.
Jonnu Smith: Here’s the good news, folks. Smith was on the field for 62% of the snaps in week five! The bad news is that he ran just six receiving routes. Yes, you read that correctly. With four offensive line starters out last week against Houston, Smith was asked to stay in and block a heavy amount, which killed his fantasy output. While it’s baffling why the Patriots paid Smith $50 million to not be used as a receiving threat in this offense, we have to face the reality of the situation and recognize that it’s simply unlikely to change. Smith is now droppable in redraft leagues if there’s a better option available.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos
Date/Time: Sunday October 17, 4:25pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Broncos -3.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 44 points
Implied Vegas point totals: Broncos 23.75, Raiders 20.25
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr: This seems like a tough spot for Carr. He’s on the road against a Denver defense that’s allowing an average of 207 passing yards and one TD pass per game. The Jon Gruden scandal led to an abrupt coaching change and brought unwanted attention to the Raiders’ organization, so who knows what sort of mood the team will be in for a tough road game against a division rival. Plus, Carr has lost momentum after a hot start. He averaged 401 passing yards and threw six TD passes over his first three games. He’s averaged 201 passing yards and has thrown two TD passes over his last two games. Carr checks in at QB16 this week, buoyed mainly by robust passing volume. Carr ranks third in the league with 205 pass attempts.
Teddy Bridgewater: Bridgewater is more game manager than gunslinger, and it’s hard to imagine him posting big numbers this week against a Raiders defense that’s far exceeded expectations. PFF gives the Las Vegas defense its best pass rush grade and its second-best pass coverage grade. The Raiders are giving up only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Bridgewater ranks QB25 in fantasy scoring and lands at QB24 in this week’s rankings.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs: Jacobs investors have to be pleased with his touch volume of late. In his first two games back from an ankle injury, Jacobs has had 28 carries and nine receptions. Those 37 touches have produced only 124 yards from scrimmage, but Jacobs did manage to punch in a 1-yard touchdown against the Bears in Week 5. The Raiders’ opponents this week, the Broncos, are allowing 3.7 yards per carry. Denver’s run defense ranks 10th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric and is graded by PFF as the second-best in the league. Jacobs is a midrange RB2 this week based on volume, but he could be looking at another modest yardage total.
Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon: The Raiders have had a tough week, with the Jon Gruden email scandal throwing the organization into turmoil. If the Raiders come into Denver flat this weekend, both of the Broncos’ running backs could produce satisfying rushing numbers. Williams’ carry totals this season have been dictated by game script. When Denver raced out to a 3-0 start, Williams was averaging 13 carries. Over the last two weeks, with Denver playing mostly from behind in losses to the Ravens and Steelers, Williams has averaged 7.5 carries. The rookie managed to make the most of his carries in Week 5, rushing eight times for 61 yards. He’s had three receptions in three straight games. Gordon’s volume has also waned in the last two weeks. He averaged 14 carries a game in the Broncos’ three wins, nine carries in their two losses. Williams is ranked RB20 this week, Gordon RB21. I really like Williams at $5,000 on DraftKings, and Gordon has some GPP appeal at $5,100.
Wide Receivers
Henry Ruggs: A big play waiting to happen, Ruggs is averaging 20.5 yards per catch and 12.5 yards per target. The only problem is that he’s averaging 5.6 targets per game. Sure, lid lifters like Ruggs tend to get fewer targets than receivers who work at shallower depths, but wouldn’t it be nice if Ruggs could average 6.5 to 7.0 targets a game? Ruggs is a WR4 this week and has a wide range of possible outcomes. At $5,200 on DraftKings, he’s a bad investment in cash games but worth considering in GPPs for his splash-play potential.
Hunter Renfrow: Renfrow continues to be a model of consistency with at least five catches in every game this season. His yardage totals week by week: 70, 57, 77, 45, 56. That sort of steady, dependable, low-ceiling production becomes more valuable during the bye weeks. However, Renfrow has a tough individual matchup against talented Broncos clot corner Bryce Callahan. Consider Renfrow a midrange WR4 this week.
Bryan Edwards: Edwards hasn’t seen more than five targets in a game this season and has produced just 26 receiving yards over the last two weeks. He’s droppable.
Courtland Sutton: After a couple of slow weeks, Sutton erupted in Week 5, catching seven passes for 120 yards and scoring his first touchdown of the season. Sutton has 644 air yards for the season and trails only Davante Adams in that category. But while Adams produces nearly every week, Sutton has had two 100-yard games this season and has been held under 50 receiving yards in the other three. Sutton ranks as a midrange WR2 this week against the Raiders, who are giving up 16.1 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, the third-lowest total in the league.
Tim Patrick: Patrick’s target totals this season: 4, 4, 5, 6, 9. Notice the steady increase? Yeah, we like that. Here are two other things we like: (1) The passer rating on throws intended for Patrick this year is a hearty 135.1; and (2) Patrick hasn’t dropped a pass since 2019. This guy is sneaky-good. He’s still only a midrange WR4 this week against a Raiders defense that’s been tough on wide receivers.
Tight Ends
Darren Waller: It seemed as if Waller was preparing to rewrite the record books when he opened the season with a 10-105-1 game on 19 targets. But Waller has failed to exceed 65 yards in any of the four games since. He’s had at least seven targets, four receptions and 45 yards in each of those games, and those certainly aren’t bad minimums for a tight end. Waller is no ordinary tight end though, and while the occasional 4-45-0 stat line is acceptable, you didn’t sink second- or third-round capital into Waller to get those types of numbers every week. Waler investors might have to settle for more of the same, however, with Waller facing a Denver defense that’s giving up 3.0 fantasy points per game to tight end.
Noah Fant: This game could set up well for Fant. The Raiders have been stingy to opposing wide receivers this year, but 28.2% of opponents’ targets have gone to tight ends, the third-highest rate of TE targets in the league. (Hat tip to J.J. Zachariason of numberFire for that factoid.) The Raiders are giving up 16.1 fantasy points per game to wide receivers and 9.3 to tight ends. Fant could be a focal point of the Broncos’ passing attack. He checks in at TE7 this week. Fant is tempting at $4,800 on DraftKings.
