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The Primer: Week 6 Edition (2021 Fantasy Football)


Seattle Seahawks vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Date/Time: Sunday October 17, 8:20pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Steelers -5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 42.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Steelers 23.75, Seahawks 18.75

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith: With Russell Wilson expected to miss at least a month due to a grisly finger injury, Smith takes the reins at quarterback. He’ll be making his first start since Week 12 of 2017 when he was with the Giants and threw for 212 yards and a touchdown in a 24-17 loss to the Raiders. Smith played reasonably well in relief of Wilson last week, completing 10 of 17 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. He also threw an interception that didn’t appear to be his fault. A road game in Pittsburgh is a tough spot for a guy making his first start in nearly four years. Smith is ranked QB27 and not a recommended fantasy option.

Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben is coming off his best game of the season, an efficient 253-yard, two-TD performance in a 27-19 home win over the Broncos. The less-is-more approach worked for Roethlisberger, who threw a season-low 25 passes while RB Najee Harris did much of the heavy lifting with the running game. As bad as Roethlisberger has looked at times this season, it’s hard to generate much enthusiasm for him. But if you’re going to throw him into your lineup, it should be in a spot like this, with a home date against a bad defense. The Seahawks’ pass defense ranks 28th in DVOA and is allowing 8.3 yards per pass attempt. Roethlisberger lands at QB20 in the Week 6 rankings.

Running Backs

Chris Carson and Alex Collins: Carson was sidelined with a neck injury in Week 5 but could be back to face the Steelers in Pittsburgh. If not, he’ll be replaced by Alex Collins, who played 71% of Seattle’s offensive snaps last week in Collins’ absence. This is a bad matchup for the Seattle backs. Pittsburgh’s run defense ranks sixth in DVOA, and the Steelers have given up just one TD run. Collins will be a high-end RB3 if Carson is out. If Carson plays, he’ll slide in as a low-end RB2. Update: Chris Carson has been ruled out.

Najee Harris: The big rookie has been a true workhorse for Pittsburgh. He had a season-high 23 carries for 122 yards and a touchdown last week against the Broncos. He ranks seventh in the league in carries with 78, and his 28 receptions rank second among RBs, putting him just one catch behind D’Andre Swift. Harris’s 14-catch day in Week 3 was far more valuable than his 23-carry day in Week 5, but his investors certainly won’t complain about the latter. (And Harris added two receptions in Week 5 for good measure.) Harris gets a plum matchup against the Seahawks on Sunday night. Seattle has yielded 726 rushing yards, the second-highest total in the league behind only the Chargers. The Seahawks are giving up 24.5 fantasy points per game to running backs, the fourth-highest total in the league. Harris is a must-start as a mid-range RB1.

Wide Receivers

D.K. Metcalf: How much do we have to downgrade the Seattle receivers with Geno Smith filling in for Russell Wilson at quarterback? Under normal circumstances, I’d rank Metcalf as a top-seven receiver against a Pittsburgh defense that’s giving up 30.4 fantasy points to wide receivers, the second-highest total in the league. With Smith at quarterback, I have Metcalf at a more modest WR12. The QB downgrade seems less concerning for Metcalf, a size/speed freak who excels at making contested catches than it is for Tyler Lockett, a precision/timing guy. In light of the Seahawks’ QB situation, I have no interest in rostering Metcalf at a DraftKings price of $7,200.

Tyler Lockett: As noted in the D.K. Metcalf entry, I think the QB downgrade from Russell Wilson to Geno Smith might be more harmful to a smooth, crisp route runner like Lockett than it will be to a physical marvel like Metcalf, who’s better equipped to win contested catches. Lockett has been on a downswing after a fast start. He’s had 57 or fewer receiving yards in each of the last three weeks after opening the year with two 100-yard games and three touchdowns. I won’t touch Lockett at $6,7000 on DraftKings.

Diontae Johnson: After seeing double-digit targets in each of his first three games, Johnson had two measly targets last week in the Steelers’ 27-19 win over the Broncos. Ben Roethlisberger was able to game-manage Pittsburgh to a win while throwing only 25 passes. Expect the target volume to pick up for Johnson this week. JuJu Smith-Schuster is out for the year with a shoulder injury, which should funnel additional targets Johnson’s way, and the Seahawks’ secondary is wretched. The Rams’ Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp combined for 19 catches and 242 yards against Seattle last week, Deebo Samuel pasted the Seahawks for 8-156-2 in Week 4, and Justin Jefferson gashed them for 9-118-1 in Week 3. Johnson is a low-end WR1 this week.

Chase Claypool: Despite Pittsburgh’s muted passing volume in Week 5, Claypool still went off, catching 5 of 6 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown. He could be poised for even bigger things this week. JuJu Smith-Schuster‘s season-ending shoulder injury should lead to extra targets, and Claypool will face a Seattle defense that’s given up 100-plus yards to X-receivers Justin Jefferson, Deebo Samuel and Robert Woods over the last three weeks. X marks the spot for Claypool. He’s at WR16 in this week’s rankings, and that seems too conservative.

James Washington: JuJu Smith-Schuster‘s season-ending shoulder injury opens the door for James Washington to become fantasy-relevant. Give him just a half-dozen targets and he could produce useful numbers against a bad Seattle pass defense. He’s ranked WR63 this week.

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett and Will Dissly: Everett was activated from the reserve/COVID-19 list this week. He had 8-77-1 in his first three games, including a 5-54-0 day in Week 3. Dissly had 4-34-0 in the two games Everett missed. The Steelers have managed to hold opposing tight ends to 5.0 fantasy points per game even though they’ve faced Darren Waller, Dawson Knox, and Noah Fant. The tough matchup and the suboptimal QB situation make the Seattle TEs stay-aways in Week 6.

Pat Freiermuth and Eric Ebron: No Pittsburgh tight end has seen more than two targets or produced more than 11 receiving yards in a game since Week 3. Opponents tend to attack Seattle’s soft defensive backfield with wide receivers more so than with tight ends. There may be weeks when Freiermuth and Ebron inherit some of the targets vacated by the injured Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster, but this probably won’t be one of those weeks.

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans

Date/Time: Monday October 18, 8:15pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Bills -5.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 54 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Bills 29.75, Titans 24.25

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen: Allen dissected a bad Kansas City defense last week in a Sunday-night showcase game, and now he gets to face another subpar pass defense in a primetime affair. The Titans are allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt and have yielded nine TD passes. Tennessee’s pass defense ranks 25th in DVOA. Allen threw only 25 passes against the Chiefs on Sunday night but was still finished QB4 for the week, throwing for 315 yards and three touchdowns and adding 59 yards and touchdown on the ground. Allen’s fantasy finishes so far this season: QB21, QB20, QB1, QB13, QB4. He’s my QB1 this week.

Ryan Tannehill: A.J. Brown returned to action last weekend after missing Week 4 with a hamstring injury, and Julio Jones was back at practice Wednesday after missing the last two games, so Tannehill might have all hands on deck for a Monday-night game against the Bills. He’ll need that firepower against smothering Buffalo pass defense that’s holding opponents to 173.4 passing yards per game and just 5.4 yards per pass attempt. The Bills have allowed five TD passes while recording nine interceptions. Tannehill is QB20 in fantasy scoring, and the recent absences of his top two receivers surely have something to do with that. But this looks like a bad spot for Tannehill. He’s up against a vicious defense, and the Titans are sure to give Derrick Henry a ton of carries in an attempt to keep the game under control. It’s possible that Josh Allen and the Bills force the Titans into a shootout, but that’s not how the Titans want to play. Tannehill is a midrange QB2 this week.

Running Backs

Zack Moss and Devin Singletary: Every time we think one of these backs is pulling ahead of the other, the elastic always seems to snap back into place the next week and we’re left with the same old 50-50 timeshare. Well, Moss played 42 snaps to Singletary’s 15 and out-touched Singletary 14-7 in the Bills’ 38-20 win over the Chiefs last Sunday. Moss even had a career-high 55 receiving yards. I’m not ready to declare Moss the lead back or even the 1a, but at this moment he certainly seems to have a more valuable role than Singletary. The Buffalo backs have a favorable matchup against a Titans run D that ranks 27th in DVOA. I’ve got Moss at RB21, Singletary at RB27.

Derrick Henry: With an average of 128 rushing yards and 25 receiving yards per game, Henry is on pace to finish the 17-game regular season with 2,601 yards from scrimmage. Holy schnikes. But Henry faces a tough matchup Monday night. The Bills’ pass defense has been sublime, but the run defense hasn’t been bad either, holding opponents to 78.4 rushing yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry. Buffalo has allowed one TD run this season. Henry is still the top-ranked RB in fantasy this week, but the tough matchup might lower his ceiling just a bit.

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs: With the Bills putting on a Week 5 clinic against the Chiefs and needing to throw only 25 times, Diggs was limited to five targets and had two catches for 69 yards. It’s been a frustrating season for Diggs investors, with the star receiver scoring only one touchdown so far and being held under 70 receiving yards in four of his five games. Before Week 5, he was basically on a target pace that matched his banner 2020 season. He’s a little behind that pace now, but there’s no reason for concern among Diggs stakeholders. He’ll be fine. He’s a high-end WR1 this week against a Titans defense that’s giving up a league-high 32.6 fantasy points per game to wide receivers.

Emmanuel Sanders: With his second two-TD game in three weeks, Sanders has ascended to WR14 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. There’s surely some regression coming here. Sanders is averaging a modest 6.2 catches and 3.8 receptions per game. With an average depth of target of 16.0 yards, Sanders can do (and has done) a lot of damage on that sort of target volume, but there are bound to be lean periods, too. Sanders checks in at WR29 this week against a shaky Titans pass defense that’s given up fantasy points aplenty to opposing receivers.

Cole Beasley: With the Bills’ defense becoming one of the best – if not THE best – in the league, Beasley’s value is falling. Buffalo has won two blowouts (35-0 over the Dolphins and 40-0 over the Texans) and two games where they led comfortably by the end of the third quarter (43-21 over the Washington Football Team and 38-20 over the Chiefs). In three of those four games, Beasley had four or fewer targets and 36 or fewer receiving yards. In the Washington game, Beasley had 11 catches for 98 yards. Beasley also fared well in Buffalo’s lone close game, a 23-16 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 1 in which he had 8-60-0. This isn’t to say that the Bills’ success will render Beasley fantasy-irrelevant, but might not be as useful in PPR leagues as he used to be. He’s a low-end WR4 this week.

A.J. Brown: AJB was quiet last week coming off a hamstring injury, catching 3-38-0 against the Jaguars on six targets. The Titans rolled 37-19, so there wasn’t much for Brown to do. That should change this week in a matchup against the high-flying Bills. The return of Julio Jones would help Brown by keeping Bills CB Tre’Davious White out of a potential shadow situation. A matchup against Buffalo isn’t ideal either way, but AJB investors would certainly rather see Julio play than not. Browns ranks WR22 this week against a Bills defense allowing a league-low 13.2 fantasy points per game to wide receivers.

Julio Jones: Jones has missed Tennessee’s last two games with a hamstring injury but practiced Wednesday and seems to be on his way back. I’ve very tentatively slotted Jones at WR43, not knowing whether he’ll play a full complement of snaps – or whether he’ll play at all for that matter. This will be a tricky spot for Julio investors. The best-case scenario is a healthy Jones who hasn’t really fit into his new offense yet facing the best defense in the league. It might be best to wait another week before reinserting Julio into your lineup.

Tight Ends

Dawson Knox: Even in a game where the Bills attempted only 25 passes, Knox still made a big impact, catching 3 of 4 targets for 117 yards and a touchdown in the Week 5 win over the Chiefs. Knox’s touchdown was a 53-yarder, his fifth trip to the end zone in the last four weeks. He’s climbed to TE2 in fantasy scoring behind only Travis Kelce. Knox now faces a Titans defense that’s giving up just 3.1 fantasy points per game to tight ends, but the Titans haven’t faced any quality tight ends yet. You’re starting Knox in season-long leagues without question. (How weird is it to read that?)

Anthony Firkser: Firkser has had three receptions in each of his three games this year, but he’s averaging 8.3 yards per catch and hasn’t found the end zone yet. He was out-snapped by fellow TEs MyCole Pruitt and Geoff Swaim last week, and if that trend continues, it could destroy whatever fantasy value Firkser might have. (Pruitt even had a 14-yard TD catch.) Firkser is merely a back-end TE2 this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles

Date/Time: Thursday October 14, 8:20pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Buccaneers -6.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 52.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Buccaneers 29.5, Eagles 23

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady: In last week’s version of The Game Plan, I wrote about how Tom Brady had been a bit of a disappointment over the two previous weeks due to only throwing for one total touchdown. Apparently, Brady reads this article though, and took it personally because he came out on fire in week five and threw for over 400 yards and five passing touchdowns. Did you know that this past performance from Brady is the first time in his entire storied NFL career that he has thrown for over 400 yards and five touchdowns in the same game? In his entire NFL career – including playoffs – he has never accomplished this feat, but he was able to do it against a solid Miami secondary last week. With the receiving weapons that Brady has around him, the upside for big performances is always going to be there and he consistently belongs in the QB1 conversation every single week. He might not bring you the safe floor that other QBs in this range do with their rushing ability, so we could have some dud performances from time to time, but he’s going to be one of the steadiest fantasy options out there. For week six against the Eagles, Brady should continue to dominate despite the short week. The Eagles just clamped down on Sam Darnold and the Carolina Panthers, but this is the same secondary that allowed Patrick Mahomes to throw for five touchdowns just two weeks ago. This should be a big victory for the Bucs and Brady’s a solid mid-range QB1 because of it.

Jalen Hurts: Make no mistake about it, Jalen Hurts was not good as a passer last week. He finished with under 200 yards passing, 5.4 Yards Per Attempt, and zero touchdowns to one interception. However, it doesn’t matter for fantasy football because Hurts tacked on 30 yards rushing for two touchdowns on the ground. This reminds me of Blake Bortles from several years ago where he’s a viable fantasy option, but you simply cannot watch the games for your mental health because of the quality of the play. The final stats end up looking alright, but it’s not the prettiest thing to watch while it’s happening. Hurts continues to get the job done for fantasy football though and he’s worth starting every single week because of the potential for what he can do on the ground with his legs. This matchup against the Bucs is a good one on paper for opposing passing attacks, so Hurts should see better numbers through the air than what he posted in week five. On top of what he can do as a runner, Hurts is a mid-range/low-end QB1 yet again.

Running Backs

Leonard Fournette: When Bernard was activated right before kickoff last week, I panicked and dropped Leonard Fournette a bit in my weekly rankings. He was definitely still worth starting, but I had plenty of concerns about what his workload would be with Gio in the fold. While Bernard was able to find the end zone as a receiver, it didn’t make much of a difference for Fournette and he appears to now have locked away the starting role in this offense. Fournette had 17 total opportunities in week five against the Dolphins and he turned it into 110 total yards and a score. He is experiencing a career resurgence here in Tampa Bay and he’s looking like the old Fournette that we saw at LSU that was worthy of the No. 4 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. He’s pulled away from Jones from a snap count perspective (46 snaps in week five to just 10 for Jones) and he still maintained a heavy workload through the air with Gio active. Moving forward, there’s no reason why we shouldn’t view Fournette as a mid-range RB2 every single week. He’s in one of the league’s top offenses and he’s now secured this starting job. Against Philadelphia, who just allowed Chuba Hubbard to run for over 100 yards, Fournette’s a rock-solid start as a mid-range RB2 with upside.

Giovani Bernard: Giovani Bernard was able to fight through injury to play last week and he was able to cash in and find the end zone as a receiver. However, Fournette appears to have completely taken over this job in Tampa, which means that there’s very little leftover opportunity for Bernard. He can’t be started in any format at this point. Ronald Jones has now seen his snaps steadily decrease from 26 in week two all the way to just 10 total snaps in week five against Miami. Fournette has completely secured this job, which now puts Jones into the insurance-RB conversation at best. If you need to move on from him to be able to add an RB who is set to see an increased workload in week six and who can help your lineup right away, you can do so confidently.

Miles Sanders: There’s some good news to take away from the Eagles’ week five game against the Panthers. Miles Sanders saw 16 total touches, which is one more than he had seen the previous two weeks combined. However, Sanders only turned those 16 touches into 51 total yards and – yet again – no score. At this point, there is zero upside to plugging Sanders into your starting lineup any given week. The Eagles offense is struggling to put up points and, when they do, it’s going to Hurts on the ground versus the RBs. In a matchup against the Bucs fearsome run defense, Sanders belongs nowhere near your starting lineup this week.

Kenneth Gainwell: Kenneth Gainwell has had some moments so far this season where he’s been relevant, but the parallels to Nyheim Hines in Indianapolis are uncanny. Hines has had moments of exploding and putting up dominant performances – like Gainwell has done this season – but trying to predict when those happen is an absolute nightmare for fantasy football. In a matchup that the Eagles trailed for the majority of the game, Gainwell would be expected to see an uptick in usage as the pass-catching compliment out of the backfield, right? Unfortunately, Gainwell went from nine touches in week four to just three in week five. There’s no predicting when or how Gainwell will be used in this backfield and it’s honestly not worth the headache. If there’s a more proven asset available on your waiver wire this week, it’s fine to move on from Gainwell and let someone else deal with trying to predict when he’ll be relevant for fantasy.

Wide Receivers

Mike Evans: In the words of the old NBA Jam video game, “He’s on fire!” Mike Evans is playing lights out football here recently and fantasy managers have to be thrilled that they paid up for him in their drafts. Even with Brown and Godwin producing solid numbers so far this season, Evans continues to dominate. Over his last four games, Evans has 369 receiving yards and four total touchdowns. The lowest receiving yardage total he’s had during that time period is 75 yards, which is an incredibly high floor for fantasy purposes. In years past, there’s been plenty of volatility with Evans from a fantasy perspective and you simply had to live with the big performances and the games that he would seemingly disappear. 2021 is a different story for the veteran receiver though and he’s done nothing but produce at a high level outside of week one. With Brady showing no signs of a drop-off in play, Evans should continuously be in the high-end/mid-range WR2 conversation. Against the Eagles defense that held the Panthers’ passing game in check, but got shredded by Mahomes and the Chiefs just two weeks ago, Evans is a rock-solid start.

Antonio Brown: If we remove the fluke week two outing against Atlanta from Antonio Brown‘s statistics, here’s what his weekly average would look like from a production standpoint. 8.66 targets, 6.33 receptions, 102.66 receiving yards, and one touchdown per game. For fantasy managers that spent a mid-round pick on AB, that is music to your ears. He’s providing huge performances in certain matchups and yet he’s also bringing a safe floor in games where he doesn’t find the end zone. There’s no reason why AB shouldn’t be moving up the rest-of-season rankings into low-end WR2 territory and he comes with massive upside every single week. Against the Eagles this week on Thursday Night Football, Brown should be viewed in that range to account for the possibility that the touchdowns go to one of the other dynamic receiving options in this offense, but there’s also the strong possibility that he finishes as a top-5 WR yet again. Start AB if you’ve got him.

Chris Godwin: Chris Godwin was viewed as the safest Bucs receiving option coming into the season and that’s exactly what he’s been through the first five weeks of the season. In any of his five games this year, Godwin hasn’t finished with less than 55 receiving yards. While it’s difficult to watch what other fantasy managers are getting with AB and Evans in this offense, there’s a lot to be said for consistency from your WR1 or WR2 spot. Godwin isn’t going to bring you week-winning upside unless he finds the end zone, but he’s one of the most reliable fantasy assets at the WR position currently. We need to downgrade him slightly to account for his lack of upside, but not by much. He can be viewed as a mid-range/low-end WR2 in week six against the Eagles’ secondary that’s not going to have a prayer for stopping this Bucs passing attack.

DeVonta Smith: DeVonta Smith has certainly had a bit of an up-and-down rookie season so far, but he’s continuing to be heavily targeted and he’s strung together two solid back-to-back performances. Smith led the Eagles in targets in week five against the Panthers with eight and he turned it into seven receptions for 77 yards and no score. While he did have a touchdown this past week, it was called back due to an illegal pick play in the end zone by Greg Ward. Additionally, Smith lost a fumble last week which hurt his overall fantasy finish, but the production is there enough in this Eagles offense that we can rely on him moving forward. It might not be as a low-end WR2 or higher like everyone was hoping for at the beginning of the season, but he’s a steady and reliable mid-range/low-end WR3 that does come with some upside in this matchup against the Bucs’ secondary that’s bleeding fantasy points. Otherwise, none of the other Eagles’ WRs should be considered for fantasy football.

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski: At the time of writing, it’s unclear whether or not Rob Gronkowski is going to be able to make it back for this matchup against the Eagles. As of right now, due to the short week, it seems unlikely that he’ll make it back in time. This means that Cameron Brate and OJ Howard should split the receiving work at the TE position yet again in this game, but neither of them are anything more than a dart throw play for fantasy football. It’s probably best to look elsewhere for your lineup. Update: Gronkowski has been ruled OUT for this matchup.

Zach Ertz: Ertz continued to see more targets than Dallas Goedert in this offense this past week, but he could only reel in one of his six targets for just seven yards. With Hurts’ inaccuracy throwing the football, Ertz struggled to do much last week and fantasy managers that took the shot on him were left disappointed. However, the target share is enough to at least remain interested in Ertz from a fantasy perspective. Additionally, it’s now known that Goedert is likely going to miss this game due to landing on the COVID-19/Reserve list. This does boost Ertz back into the start-worthy conversation, but we shouldn’t be viewing him as a slam-dunk play by any means. He can be viewed as a high-end TE2 this week against Tampa Bay based on volume.

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