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The Primer: Week 7 Edition (2021 Fantasy Football)

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks

Date/Time: Monday October 25, 8:15pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Saints -4.5
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 43 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Saints 23.75, Seahawks 19.25

Quarterback

Jameis Winston: Winston has surprisingly been one of the league’s more efficient QBs over the course of this season and he would normally be in consideration as a low-end QB1 with his touchdown totals if we saw his yardage totals be higher than what they are. Through five games, Winston is averaging just 178.4 passing yards per contest, which isn’t enough to push him into the weekly top-15 conversation. Additionally, there’s always the potential that Taysom Hill could come onto the field at any given moment to make a big play and take away the upside that Winston possesses. The matchup is a fantastic one for opposing QBs against Seattle, but it’s an extremely risky play to start Winston this week as a streaming option. It could pay off in a big way or it could blow up in our faces.

Geno Smith: Well, we saw the Seahawks alter their game plan without Wilson in the lineup and Smith wasn’t asked to push the ball deep downfield very much. Smith had an ADOT of just 4.1 in week six and he barely crossed over 200 passing yards as a result. In a matchup this week against the solid Saints defense, Smith’s not worth viewing as anything more than a high-end QB3.

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara: It’s certainly been an interesting year for Kamara. He’s had games where he’s been used similarly to Derrick Henry with a massive workload on the ground and then other games we’ve seen the usage from him that we’ve become familiar with in previous seasons. Either way, we know that he’s going to be given plenty of work each and every week and that’s all we should care about as fantasy managers. With his skill set and talent, he has the ability to translate that volume into top-5 fantasy production every single week. In a matchup against the Seahawks defense that’s allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs this year, AK’s a top-tier option.

Alex Collins: At the time of writing, it’s unclear whether or not Collins is going to be able to suit up for this matchup as he’s dealing with reported hip/glute injuries. We’ll continue to monitor the situation and update as more information becomes available.

Rashaad Penny: Penny is set to return to the active lineup this week, but it’s unclear right now whether or not he’ll be receiving the majority of the work in this backfield. For the time being, there’s very little to analyze, so we’ll need to wait until more information becomes available about Collins’ injury status and then we’ll update as able.

Wide Receivers

Marquez Callaway: Callaway has started to emerge as a viable option in this Saints offense over the previous couple of weeks, but there’s still very little predictability with this team as far as where the majority of the targets are going to go. In a fantastic matchup on paper, we could see Callaway explode for a monstrous performance or we could see Winston pepper other receiving weapons on this team with targets and Callaway’s left with a lackluster fantasy outing. He has a wide range of outcomes this week and he needs to be viewed as a low-end FLEX play accordingly.

DK Metcalf: Despite Smith struggling to push the ball deep downfield, Metcalf was able to at least provide a solid floor for fantasy managers in week six with a 6-58-0 stat line. All upside for Metcalf has been virtually erased without Russell Wilson in the lineup, but he should still dominate targets as the WR1 in this offense. This is a tougher matchup against the Saints defense that’s allowing just 22.6 fantasy points per game on average to opposing WRs, but there should be enough volume there for us to view Metcalf as a safe WR2.

Tyler Lockett: Apparently Lockett’s fantasy outlook completely depends on Russell Wilson, huh? Without Wilson pushing the ball deep downfield to Lockett, the veteran receiver wasn’t able to do much in week six in a plus matchup against the Steelers. Lockett had just two receptions for 35 yards on seven targets and he now has a much tougher battle this week against the Saints secondary. Until we see Wilson come back into the lineup, it’s probably best to view Lockett as nothing more than a low-upside WR3.

Tight Ends

Adam Trautman: Trautman has the talent to be a factor for fantasy football, but the volume and pace of play from this Saints offense is holding him back. He can be viewed as a low-end TE2 this week at best.

Gerald Everett: Everett was able to showcase his talent and play-making ability on a big catch last week against the Steelers, but he ended up with only three receptions. With Will Dissly still involved, there’s no upside for Everett in this Seattle offense that’s currently being led by Geno Smith. He’s a low-end TE2 this week at best.

Cleveland Browns vs Denver Broncos

Date/Time: Thursday October 21, 8:20pm ET
BettingPros Consensus Spread: Browns -3
BettingPros Consensus Over/Under: 41.5 points
Implied Vegas point totals
: Browns 22.25, Broncos 19.25

Quarterback

Teddy Bridgewater: After opening the season 3-0, Denver has lost three straight, and a recent poll of Broncos fans showed that a majority favor benching Bridgewater in favor of Drew Lock. Assuming those fans are familiar with Lock’s play, that’s quite an indictment of Bridgewater. He actually ranks QB12 in fantasy scoring over the last two weeks, but his 622 passing yards and five TD passes over that span have been offset by four interceptions and seven sacks. Bridgewater’s Week 6 numbers were artificially inflated by 22 fourth-quarter passing attempts, as the Raiders did a poor job of playing keep-away with a commanding lead. Not that Broncos head coach Vic Fangio is apt to cave into fans’ demands, but the possibility of an in-game benching heightens the risk for any fantasy managers forced to bet on Bridgewater in Week 7. Plus, Bridgewater is now dealing with some sort of minor foot issue. He’s going up against a staggering Browns defense that gave up four TD passes to Justin Herbert and Chargers in Week 5 and another four to Kyler Murray and the Cardinals in Week 7. Bridgewater isn’t on par with those two premier passers, but this has been a different Cleveland defense than the one that terrorized Justin Fields and Kirk Cousins a few weeks ago. There’s a wide range of possible outcomes for Bridgewater this week, but a ranking of QB21 reflects overall bearishness.

Case Keenum: Baker Mayfield has a torn labrum in his left, non-throwing shoulder, so the Browns wisely decided not to put him at risk and to start Keenum instead. One of the better backups in the league, Keenum posted an 11-3 regular-season record as a starter for the Vikings in 2017 but couldn’t sustain that level of success as a starter with the Broncos in 2018. Technically, there’s a little bit of revenge-game narrative here, since the Broncos traded Keenum to Washington for sixth- and seventh-round draft picks in early 2019. Under normal circumstances, we could expect a run-heavy game script for the Browns, but with RBs Nick Chubb and Kareen Hunt both injured, Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski may not have the luxury of taking a conservative approach Thursday against the Broncos. The Denver defense performed well in the first three games of the season against the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets, but Broncos head coach Vic Fangio and defensive coordinator Ed Donatell have watched their D collapse the last two weeks against the Steelers and Raiders. Still, with a banged-up supporting cast and limited prep time for a Thursday-nighter, Keenum ranks QB23 this week.

Running Backs

Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon: Williams leads the league in missed tackles per carry, according to PFF. He’s averaging 3.5 yards after contact. For sake of comparison, Derrick Henry is averaging 3.6 yards after contact. Williams has been every bit as good as advertised, if not better. Gordon has been solid, too, averaging 4.7 yards per carry and 7.4 yards per target. This continues to be a true 50/50 split, and that arrangement has held steady through the first six weeks. In Week 7, Williams and Gordon face a Cleveland run defense that has continued to hold steady even as the Browns’ pass defense has slid into a funk. The Browns are giving up 3.6 yards per carry and rank third in DVOA against the run. Both rank as lower-end RB2s.

D’Ernest Johnson, Demetric Felton and John Kelly: The Browns have two of the more talented running backs in the league with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, but that relative embarrassment of RB riches will do them no good this week, with Chubb and Hunt both sidelined with calf injuries. D’Ernest Jackson has been No. 3 on the Browns’ RB depth chart and figures to get the start against the Broncos on Thursday night. He’s a former undrafted free agent who backed up Marlon Mack for three years at the University of South Florida before rushing for 796 yards and seven touchdowns in a committee role as a senior in 2017. Since entering the league in 2019, he has 40-198-0 rushing and 10-92-0 receiving. Felton, a former UCLA running back who’s been playing more of a WR role with the Browns, figures to get some additional snaps, whether out of the backfield or in the slot. Ex-Ram John Kelly has been moved from the practice squad to the active roster and could also factor in. Even with an enhanced role, Johnson is still just a back-end RB2 this week due to all the injuries the Browns are dealing with. Backup QB Case Keenum will be starting for Cleveland, and it’s possible they’ll be without starting offensive tackles Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin, who both missed Week 6. Felton and Kelly are long shots to be fantasy-relevant even with enhanced usage.

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton: Sutton leads all NFL pass catchers in air yards, but will he still play an alpha receiver role for the Broncos once Jerry Jeudy returns from a high-ankle sprain? Week 8 seems like a probable return date for Jeudy, so Sutton has at least one more week left as the undisputed boss of the Denver WR corps. Sutton has racked up 25 targets over the Broncos’ last two games and has 15-214-2 over that span. He has a tricky matchup this week against Browns CB Denzel Ward, but as solid as Ward is, he can’t be considered a true lockdown cover man yet. Consider Sutton a midrange WR2 this week.

Tim Patrick: Despite seeing more than six targets in a game only once, Patrick is the WR30 in fantasy scoring (0.5 PPR). That’s because he’s averaging an efficient 10.1 yards per target. The impending return of Jerry Jeudy could further restrict Patrick’s diet of targets, but Patrick is still a reasonably good play in fantasy for at least another week. He falls into midrange WR3 territory.

Odell Beckham: Beckham is questionable with a shoulder injury. Even if he plays, he’ll be paired up with backup QB Case Keenum in an offense that could be without its two starting offensive tackles. A matchup against a slumping Denver pass defense isn’t as daunting as it might have seemed a month ago, but Beckham still isn’t a very attractive play in season-long leagues. I have him at WR40.

Jarvis Landry: A sprained MCL has kept Landry out of action since Week 2, but he has a chance to return for Thursday night’s game against the Broncos, and the injury-depleted Browns could certainly use him. I tentatively have him slotted as a low-end WR47 in a tough individual matchup against Broncos slot corner Bryce Callahan.

Donovan Peoples-Jones: Don’t let the Week 6 stat line fool you: Peoples-Jones’ 4-101-2 game was largely driven by a 57-yard TD catch on a Hail Mary. Aside from that play, he drew just four targets on 30 routes. People-Jones won’t be playable for fantasy purposes if Odell Beckham (shoulder) and Jarvis Landry (knee) are both able to play, but he could warrant flex consideration if OBJ and Landry are both out and DPJ becomes the Browns’ No. 1 receiver by default.

Tight Ends

Noah Fant: Fant’s stat lines in the two games since the Broncos’ No. 2 tight end, Albert Okwuegbunam, went on IR: 3-20-0 and 9-97-1. With Albert O. still out and WR Jerry Jeudy not expected back until next week, Fant’s target outlook for Week 7 is sunny. I have him ranked TE8 this week, though the numerologists among you may be troubled by the fact that Fant has scored a touchdown in every even-numbered week but has failed to reach the end zone in odd-numbered weeks.

David Njoku and Austin Hooper: In a curious move, the Browns responded to Njoku’s 7-149-1 explosion in Week 5 by giving him a season-low 44% snap share in Week 6. Njoku responded with a 1-6-0 stat line on two targets. Hooper, meanwhile, has just two catches over his last three games despite playing 152 snaps over that span. This is a mess, and when you consider that the Browns will be starting backup QB Case Keenum and that the Broncos have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends, neither Njoku nor Hooper is worth your attention in fantasy this week.

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