Overvalued & Undervalued Players: Week 12 (2021 Fantasy Football)
To put it simply, I hope everyone had a lovely Thanksgiving holiday, and it allowed you a respite from the relentless frustration that is fantasy football. With that being said, we have some playoff spots to clinch, and the below hopefully continues to allow you to navigate one of the most shocking NFL seasons I can remember.
As always, the below utilizes FantasyPros ECR rankings using Half PPR scoring.
Cam Newton (CAR): QB9
Cam’s resurgence has been rapid and admittedly impressive, but I’m not on board with him being a top-ten QB quite yet. Miami is a favorable matchup, but Cam only threw for 189 yards against Washington last week: the first QB all season to throw for less than 200 yards against them (and only the third to throw for less than 249). He’s a fine streaming option, but I think everyone is hopping on board a bit too quickly.
Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): QB18
Garoppolo tends to lean towards the safe side, as he’s only thrown for 300+ yards three times this season, and he doesn’t have a game with more than two passing touchdowns. With that being said, two of his 300-yard passing games have come in the past four weeks, and he has six touchdowns and one interception over that span. In two of the last three weeks, the Vikings have allowed 30 or more fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and Garoppolo should continue his dependable run.
Darrell Henderson (LAR): RB14
Henderson was shaping up to be one of the steals of the 2021 drafts, but he has cooled off massively over the past few weeks, as have the Rams as a whole. In the past two weeks, Henderson has season lows in touches and yardage, plus he hasn’t scored either week after racking up seven touchdowns in the previous seven games he’s played. Green Bay hasn’t allowed opposing running backs to gain over 100 rushing yards since Week 1, so I don’t love this week as the rebound for Henderson.
Antonio Gibson (WAS): RB16
After dealing with a lingering ankle issue for a few weeks, Gibson seems to be almost out of the woods. From Weeks 6-8, Gibson saw an average of just under 11 carries per game. Since the Week 9 bye, he’s seen 24 and 19 carries, respectively, in each game since. Seattle has the second-worst defense against opposing running backs this season as well. I know Gibson has been maddening this season, but this feels like a week where you should try to squeeze him in.
I know the Washington pass defense is terrible. I know they’ve given up touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in five of the last six games and all but two games on the season. With that being said, Metcalf and Lockett can’t both be viewed as top 13 receivers. Metcalf hasn’t broken 43 receiving yards since Week 7 and has a sub-50% catch rate in the past two weeks (seven catches on 16 targets). Lockett’s inconsistency has reared its head yet again: over the last five weeks. He has two weeks of 115 or more receiving yards and three weeks of 35 or less. He has single-digit fantasy points (Half PPR) in six of the last eight games. The talent is there for both, but the rankings are too high for what they – and the Seahawks – have been lately.
Jakobi Meyers (NE): WR34
Meyers does have pretty capped upside, as he just scored his first career touchdown two weeks ago. However, he always seems to be pretty involved with the Patriots passing attack, posting a minimum of four receptions for 36 yards in all but one game this season. That in itself isn’t enough to recommend Meyers, but Tennessee is the worst in the league against wide receivers. Oddly enough, the Titans have alternated between zero and two touchdowns to wide receivers since Week 2, meaning they allow two touchdowns to opposing wideouts every other week. Last week they gave up 0, so you know what that means…
Evan Engram (NYG): TE17
The Eagles are bad against tight ends, which has been a running theme of this piece this season. They’ve allowed touchdowns to tight ends in seven games this season, and they’ve allowed double-digit points to tight ends every week except Week 2. So Engram is your streaming option this week.
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