This was one of the more bizarre weeks in the NFL when it came to upsets. We see teams that are 10-point underdogs cover the spread all the time, that is not a bizarre event. We rarely see a 10-point favorite down 30-0 at home. That is what the Dallas Cowboys did on Sunday, before losing 30-16. That game was not even the biggest upset of the weekend, because the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Buffalo Bills at home 9-6 as 15.5-point underdogs. That was the biggest upset for the Jaguars since they were 14-point underdogs in their 30-27 playoff victory over the Denver Broncos back in the 1996 season.
Then you have the Tennessee Titans without Derrick Henry going on the road and not only upsetting the Los Angeles Rams but beating them 28-16 in a game where the Rams trailed 21-3 at the half and were down 28-9 until they scored a garbage-time touchdown late in the game. The Rams were favored to win that game by 7-points but instead lost by 16 points.
There were also smaller upsets, such as the Atlanta Falcons beating a 6.5-point favored New Orleans team on the road and the Arizona Cardinals winning as 5.5-point underdogs without Kyler Murray or DeAndre Hopkins. In all, seven underdogs not only covered this week, but they won the game outright. While this is not a column about betting and is a column about fantasy football when you have that many upsets, it leads to bizarre fantasy football outcomes.
Fantasy rankers rank players by how they think they are going to perform in the game and there were a lot of good teams that did not perform as well as expected and a lot of teams that were not expected to do much that exceeded expectations. That needs to be taken into account before making snap judgments based on one week where so many games did not go as expected.
As for roster management, another week means there are players that you should be looking to cut from your fantasy roster. Here are some players that did not live up to expectations this week and are trending toward players that should not be on your fantasy rosters based on their recent fantasy production.
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12- and 14-Team Leagues
Bryan Edwards (WR – LV)
It was a horrible week for the Raiders 2020 Draft Class. They had two first-round picks in that draft and selected Henry Ruggs III and Damon Arnette. Ruggs III was released last week after he was involved in a car accident where he was allegedly DUI and killed a 23-year-old woman and her dog while driving at 156 mph in a residential area. Damon Arnette also ended up being released yesterday after a video surfaced on social media with him yielding a gun and threatening to kill someone. It is almost unheard of for a first-round pick to be cut in his second year, much less have two of them released in their second year within a week of each other by the same NFL team.
Moving on to the least important part of all this, Edwards figured to see an expanded role once the Raiders released Ruggs III. He had only four targets against the New York Giants and he failed to record a reception. The Raiders signed DeSean Jackson to try to add a vertical element to replace the speed of Ruggs III. Jackson is one of the best vertical threats in the league, but he is also 35-years old and he has not played more than half a season since 2018. He should be fresh at this point though, he had only 15 targets in seven games with the Rams.
I do not expect Jackson to have consistent fantasy value, but if Edwards could not catch a single pass as the featured wide receiver without Jackson, it does not seem likely that he is going to be a huge factor with Jackson cutting into his targets. Darren Waller has 64 targets in seven games and he is going to be the featured player in this passing offense. Hunter Renfrow is going to see work out of the slot, he has 60 targets in eight games. Jackson is going to be next in line as the vertical threat. Edwards, Zay Jones, and Willie Snead are going to fight for the rest of the wide receiver targets. It just does not make much sense to roster Edwards in a passing offense dominated by Waller and Renfrow.
Las Vegas Target Distribution – Week 9
Rondale Moore (WR - ARI)
Moore is an intriguing fantasy option because he is an 80-yard touchdown waiting to happen on every play. The problem is that the floor is incredibly low and it would have been nice to see Moore take advantage of both DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green being out this week. Instead, Moore was the 56th ranked fantasy wide receiver with just 5.0 fantasy points. The week before with Hopkins missing large chunks of Thursday Night Football, Moore had just 2.0 fantasy points.
You can blame this week on Kyler Murray not playing, but Colt McCoy did a good job filling in for Murray and Christian Kirk thrived with 13.4 fantasy points. Antoine Wesley chipped in with 7.7 fantasy points and Moore was next in the passing game with his 5.0 fantasy points. At a certain point, there has to be a high enough floor to justify hoping for that big play from Moore. He has only five fantasy points or less in six of his last seven games and the only game he was fantasy relevant was Week 5 when he had 12 fantasy points and he was the 26th ranked fantasy wide receiver. Moore is not worth rostering with so many underwhelming fantasy performances.
Robby Anderson (WR - CAR)
Anderson has only 3.6 fantasy points in his last three games, making him the 123rd ranked fantasy player during that time period. Jaelon Darden, Ashton Dulin, and Ben Skowronek all have two things in common. All of them are rostered in zero percent of Yahoo.com leagues and all of them have more fantasy points in the last three games than Anderson. Anderson, on the other hand, is rostered in 42 percent of Yahoo.com leagues and 56.9 percent of ESPN.com leagues. That makes little sense given his production this season that has just crashed to the lowest depths possible in fantasy over the last three weeks.
Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR - JAC)
Shenault Jr. has four targets in each game he has played since the bye week and the result is seven fantasy points over his last two games. Marvin Jones Jr. has not been much better with 10 fantasy points, but he at least has 13 targets, and had Trevor Lawrence thrown a good deep pass against the Buffalo Bills that was meant for Jones Jr., he would have scored a touchdown. Jamal Agnew and Dan Arnold are settling in as the featured weapons in this anemic offense with Jones Jr. sprinkled in and Shenault Jr. all but forgotten. It does not make much sense, but that is the Urban Meyer offense at the moment and it makes little sense to roster Shenault Jr. until Meyer changes his offense or the Jaguars change their head coach.
Kenneth Gainwell (RB - PHI)
It looked like Gainwell was going to have an expanded role in this offense once Miles Sanders went down with an injury. Instead, Jordan Howard has emerged as the back to roster for Philadelphia. Howard has 29 carries for 128 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games. He is averaging 15.4 fantasy points per game in his last two games and he is the 11th ranked running back. That has not left much of a role for Gainwell. He has only nine fantasy points in his last two games and he is the 58th ranked running back over those two games. It makes little sense to roster Gainwell with Sanders eligible to return in Week 11 and with Howard as the featured back in the offense. Howard is likely to retain a role even after Sanders returns and Gainwell with have even a more diminished role at that point.
Derrick Gore (RB - KC)
Gore was a hot waiver wire add when he had 11 rushing attempts for 48 yards and one touchdown against the New York Giants on Monday Night Football. He followed that effort up with only three rushing attempts for 13 yards against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. Darrel Williams maintained his hold on the lead-back role with 19 carries for 70 yards. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is eligible to come off of IR in Week 11 and that is going to eliminate any touches that Gore is seeing right now. Even if the Chiefs play it safe and do not bring CEH back until after the Week 12 bye, Gore is not seeing enough of a timeshare to warrant holding onto for the next two games.
Trey Sermon (RB - SF)
As feared when it comes to Sermon's fantasy value, Jeff Wilson Jr. is now back and the result was that Sermon was inactive against the Arizona Cardinals and Wilson Jr. took his spot. The 49ers did not give Wilson Jr. a carry in that game. Eli Mitchell led the way again with eight carries for 36 yards. The problem is that there is another running back in the fold and Wilson Jr. is eventually going to see carries. It further dilutes the 49ers running back position and is an additional obstacle for Sermon to be active. It is going to be a lost rookie year that saw Sermon have a brief stint of fantasy relevance in Week 3 and Week 4 followed by several games where he has either not been active or seen one carry. There was little upside to rostering Sermon before Wilson Jr. came back and now there is just another obstacle for Sermon to see the field.
Trevor Lawrence (QB - JAC)
No one expected Lawrence to have a big game on Sunday against a very tough Buffalo Bills defense, but he had only 118 yards passing and no passing touchdowns and he finished the day with just five fantasy points. Jordan Love had a better fantasy day than Lawrence and Love looked lost for most of his game against Kansas City in his first NFL start.
That marked the fifth time this season that Lawrence finished the week as the 20th ranked fantasy quarterback or lower. He has been a Top-12 fantasy quarterback only twice. The first time was in Week 1 against the Houston Texans when he finished 12th and the other time was in Week 5 against the Tennessee Titans, when he finished ninth. He's going to be a good player, but the offense is currently built around Dan Arnold and Jamal Agnew. He is being sabotaged by poor supporting cast talent and an even worse offensive scheme.
Sam Darnold (QB - CAR)
There was some hope that Christian McCaffrey returning to the lineup would help Darnold regain his early-season form. One game may be a little too early to abandon that hope, but McCaffrey saw 18 touches on Sunday, so it did not appear that he was on too big of a pitch count and the results for Darnold were not good. Darnold finished with just five fantasy points and he was the 29th ranked fantasy quarterback.
Over the last five weeks, he has finished 29th, 14th, 25th, 23rd, and 29th among fantasy quarterbacks. Bringing back McCaffrey for 18 touches resulted in Darnold equaling his worst fantasy ranking of the season and his five points were the second fewest in a game this year. It is hard to keep rostering him hoping that he will rediscover the form he had in Week 3 and Week 4 in Houston and Dallas.
Jonnu Smith (TE - NE)
Smith has three fantasy points over his last two games and he saw only two targets and one rushing attempt. I have been writing for weeks that Hunter Henry is the tight end to roster in New England and this has not materialized as an offense capable of supporting two fantasy tight ends. Smith belongs on the waiver wire.
Austin Hooper (TE - CLE)
Hooper had a fantasy explosion of sorts in Week 7 and Week 8 when he scored five fantasy points each week and was the 20th and 21st ranked tight end. The Browns offense had one of their best games of the season scoring 41 points at Cincinnati in Week 9, but Hooper was left with two targets, two receptions, and 14 yards. He was the 39th ranked fantasy tight end. He should be on the waiver wire in all formats.
Shallow Leagues
Daniel Jones (QB - NYG)
One of the advantages of shallower leagues is that you can put players on the waiver wire during their bye week and have a realistic chance of still finding them there when they come back from the bye. I think Jones is that type of player, he is only the 17th ranked fantasy quarterback with 16.53 fantasy points per game. He has a bye this week and I do not think too many fantasy managers are going to want to roster him to play against Tampa Bay in Week 11. You may have games you want to stream him in after that, such as a home game against Philadelphia in Week 12 and a road game at Miami in Week13. In a deeper league, he may not make it back on the waiver wire, but in shallow leagues, it may make sense to free up the roster spot and claim him back in a couple of weeks.
Jeremy McNichols (RB - TEN)
I think there are some positives and negatives to take away from the game against the Los Angeles Rams. McNichols figures to have a bigger role when the Titans are behind and they have to throw the ball more. That was not a good game for him in that regard, the Titans had a 21-3 lead at the half and their biggest deficit was three points. In a game where the script was not set up for him to see a ton of touches, he did see seven rushes for 24 yards and three receptions for 11 yards. That is enough to hold onto him in a deeper league and hope for better outcomes when the Titans are not gifted a defensive touchdown and a drive that starts at their opponent's 2-yard line due to another turnover.
The problem is D'Onta Foreman and Adrian Peterson in shallower leagues. Foreman saw five carries for 29 yards and Peterson saw 10 carries for 21 yards and a touchdown. Peterson also had a target, reception, and five yards in the passing game. It is quite possible that this just evolves into an RBBC where no back sees more than 10 touches until Henry returns.
If that is the case, McNichols is not going to be much of a threat to score a touchdown, the other two backs are bigger and better for the goal line. He is going to be a receiving back that sees 3-5 targets per game and 7-9 rushing attempts. That probably is not enough volume or upside to warrant playing him in a shallower league and if you are not going to play him, I am not sure it is worth rostering him hoping something happens health-wise to the other backs that leads to an expanded role. The Titans would be more likely to just sign another back and keep rotating bodies at this point.
Jakobi Meyers (WR - NE)
Meyers has not done much over his last five games with just 32.3 fantasy points or 6.5 fantasy points per game. The Patriots are spreading the ball around and Meyers never seems to find the end zone for a touchdown, only a two-point conversion. In a deeper league, he is worth the bench stash hoping for a stronger finish as Mac Jones continues to develop. In a shallow league, there is not a ton of upside right now.
Mo Alie-Cox (TE - IND)
Alie-Cox has seen his fantasy value crater over the last two weeks with just 1.7 fantasy points per game over his last two games. Jack Doyle has reemerged as the Colts' tight end of choice with 14.8 fantasy points over the last two games. I almost think you could cut Alie-Cox in all formats, but in a deeper league, fantasy managers may hold out hope that Alie-Cox regains his role or can vulture a touchdown from Doyle. In a shallow league, it makes little sense to continue to roster him.
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Derek Lofland is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Derek, check out his archive and follow him @DerekLofland.
