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Week 12 Trade Market: Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers

Week 12 Trade Market: Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers

If your fantasy trade deadline is absurdly late, as many are, you’ve still got time to bolster your squad! Here is a review of which players increased and decreased their stocks, as well as some last-minute sell-highs and buy-lows in the event nobody in your league is running a Black Friday sale on RB1s.

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Rest-of-Season Rankings Fallers 

Matt Ryan: Not only do I recommend you drop Matt Ryan after Thursday’s game, I admonish you call The Occupational Health and Safety Administration (OSHA) and report workplace negligence after the atrocities his offensive line committed. Matt Ryan would likely have fantasy value with even a decent offense around him, but as the Patriots proved, triple-covering Pitts leaves Ryan approximately one second before he is pummeled to find Tajae Sharpe, Russell Gage or Olamide Zaccheaus. Not ideal. 

Christian McCaffrey: This is a mere formality, as CMC is still a fantasy RB1. However, you can’t not raise your eyebrows at Cam Newton‘s rushing total. Newton and McCaffrey each had 10 carries and the only rushing touchdown on the day went to Newton. Again, CMC averaged 5.9 yards per carry, I’m not worried, but he is now behind Austin Ekeler and Jonathan Taylor in my rest-of-season rankings. 

Darrel Williams: Barring another Clyde Edwards-Helaire injury, Williams’ days of even sniffing your fantasy starting lineup are likely over. He had a solid run in replacement of CEH, but his performance Sunday paled in comparison to that of Edwards-Helaire. Williams actually played more snaps (53%) than CEH (47%) but was far less efficient. If this game isn’t enough to convince the powers that be CEH is the better option going forward, I’m not sure what would be. 

Marvin Jones Jr.: Despite high snap counts, Jones has failed to produce in four straight games following the Jaguars’ week seven bye. Since then, he’s averaging just 3.5 receptions per game. Even in a game where emerging tight end Dan Arnold was held without a reception, Jones couldn’t muster more than four catches for 52 yards. Though fellow WR Laviska Shenault is also plagued by the Jaguars offense, Shenault seems like the more worthy fantasy addition, if either should be rostered, because of his run after the catch ability and potentially creative usage.  

Rest-of-Season Rankings Risers

Darnell Mooney: Mooney logged his second one hundred-yard game this season on Sunday. The second-year wide receiver hasn’t seen fewer than five targets in a game this season and despite starting the year with five touchdownless games, Mooney has scored three times in his last two games.

Jalen Hurts: And your new fantasy QB1 is… Jalen Hurts! Once again, the draft strategy of waiting on a QB prevails if you took a chance on Hurts. His rushing baseline is undeniable and even on an offense with seemingly few pass-catching weapons, he’s getting the job done. He’s on pace to finish the season with 176 rushing attempts, 955 yards and 12 touchdowns. He’s thrown for more than 200 yards just once in the last seven weeks, but that only bolsters his case, because those numbers can’t go anywhere other than up. 

Miles Sanders: Apparently all it takes to get a good running back going is a three-week injury and the emergence of Jordan Howard. Sanders totaled 94 rushing yards on 16 carries, by far his best rushing performance of the season. On paper, his 46% snap share isn’t impressive, but that’s actually the highest single-game snap percentage of any Eagles running back since Kenneth Gainwell (51%) in week seven. The last Eagles running back to exceed 51% of offensive snaps? Miles Sanders in week six (81%). We’ve always known Sanders is a talented back, now, it appears he finally has a path to the opportunity fantasy managers have been starved of. 

Cam Newton: Newton is officially in high-end streaming territory after his performance on Sunday. Newton and the Panthers dropped 21 points on a Washington defense that just held Tom Brady and the Buccaneers to 19. Newton completed 21 of 27 passes for 189 yards and two touchdowns, didn’t throw an interception and looked unafraid to run the ball, which is an invaluable asset in fantasy. He totaled 10 carries for 46 yards and a touchdown. 

Dawson Knox: In his second game back after recovering from a broken bone in his hand, Knox played 98% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps. Not too bad, right? Knox recorded six catches for 80 yards on eight targets. The Bills were passing quite a bit, as they were getting lambasted by the Colts, but even in more friendly game scripts, the Bills don’t run the ball much. Dawson Knox is a TE1 going forward. 

Buy-Low Players 

Antonio Gibson: Gibson ran for a single-game high 95 yards on Sunday and still finished with only 7.5 points. He didn’t catch any passes and he fumbled, which kept his score on the low end. However, since Washington’s week nine bye, Gibson has 43 carries in two games. He also totaled the second-most red zone carries of all running backs in week 11. He didn’t score, but volume in the red zone is always a good thing and often a sign of fantasy points to come.  

Javonte Williams: The Broncos were on a bye in week 11 and Williams still leads the league in broken tackles by three (17). It’s hard not to see Williams’ workload increasing in a direct correlation with season week. His floor is high because of his efficiency, even if Gordon hangs around more than we’d like, Williams will still produce. 

Josh Jacobs: Despite a middling 11.1 PPR points, Jacobs tallied his highest snap percentage since week five (66%). Jacobs still leads his team in rushing attempts inside the 20, 10 and five by quite a bit. He’s also being utilized in the passing game, an area where Jacobs truthers have begged to see bolstered for years. Jacobs’ targets have increased for five straight weeks. In his last three games, Jacobs has caught 14 of 16 targets. With his snap share back and usage back on track, Jacobs has an elevated ceiling and floor. 

DeAndre Hopkins: I’m picturing a world where Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins return to the field on the same week, arm-in-arm, hand-in-hand and finish the season tormenting defenses and scoring a bazillion touchdowns. Can you tell I have a few shares of them? Well, whoever rosters Hopkins may be hesitant to sell because of what they’ve put up with, but if you can find anyone frustrated enough to give you a discount on an elite receiver who is progressing to full health with a fantastic quarterback returning soon, strongly, strongly consider taking that deal. 

Courtland Sutton: I’ve heard of many people dropping Sutton, as he’s scored just 26.6 PPR points in the last four games. If he’s on waivers in your league, scoop him up. If he’s not, try trading for him at a discount. Sutton is too talented, with a proven (this season!) high ceiling. Now, the Broncos just signed him to a four-year extension. Maybe he was playing banged up, maybe he just had a few off games, the bye week will surely help get an extremely talented receiver back on track. 

Sell-High Players 

Mark Andrews: If you need some firepower and other positions, it’s definitely worth shopping around the current TE2. Andrews posted another great week last week, but looking at the snap counts, you might notice a red flag emoji. That red flag emoji is Nick Boyle. Though he’s a blocking tight end primarily, Boyle notched 40% of the offensive snaps in his first game of 2021. Andrews, on the other hand, tallied his lowest snap percentage since week seven. With Marquise Brown returning, Sammy Watkins healthy and Rashod Bateman emerging, Andrews will have more competition for targets than he’s had all season. As I caution with any elite fantasy asset, don’t panic and sell Andrews for table scraps. However, to receive great players you often need to give them, and this could be your move. 

Jaylen Waddle: He won’t be facing the Jets every week. Waddle has been a steady option in his rookie season, currently the fantasy WR20. He’s dealt with tumult at the quarterback position and held value despite it. However, his competition for targets will likely increase again. DeVante Parker and Will Fuller have both been dealing with injuries and though they may miss another week, if they’re back in time for the fantasy playoffs, I’m not confident in starting Waddle one bit. He’s earned a workload, but you don’t want any question marks in the fantasy playoffs and a two established, talented veterans returning to this receiving corps may shake up Waddle’s value a bit a few weeks from now. 

Myles Gaskin: I repeat, you can’t play the Jets every week! Despite his heaviest workload of the season, solid red zone involvement and his second-best fantasy finish of the year on Sunday, I refuse to believe Gaskin is anything more than a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 the rest of the way with an incredibly low floor. Gaskin has been incredibly inefficient from a yards per carry standpoint and the Dolphins even signed Duke Johnson to join their backfield, further muddying the workload division. 

Jarvis Landry: If it weren’t for a week 11 rushing touchdown and some stale name recognition, you might not be able to trade Landry for anyone. However, he does have those two things going for him if nothing else. Baker Mayfield looked atrocious on Sunday and the Browns won purely by running the ball down Detroit’s throat. Landry was out-snapped by Ja’Marcus Bradley and Rashard Higgins despite Donovan Peoples-Jones being inactive.  

The Trade Market

Here’s my take on some of the most popular questions on the FantasyPros “Who Should I Trade?” tool.

Diontae Johnson or James Robinson: Workhorse running backs are hard to find, even if they’re on bad teams. This is likely an unpopular opinion, but I’m going Robinson. He’s the lone bright spot in Jacksonville and has a friendly playoff schedule.

Marquise Brown or Josh Jacobs: Jacobs. He’s healthy and the RB1 on his team. This is incredibly close, but I’ll lean towards the running back in a fantasy football fabric starved for consistent RBs.

Darrell Henderson or Justin Jefferson: Jefferson. He’s a bonafide WR1 who’s displayed an unbelievable ceiling. Henderson is a solid option at RB, but due to his supporting cast his ceiling is limited.

Cordarrelle Patterson or Terry McLaurin: McLaurin by a mile. As a Falcons fan, that game Thursday looked so painfully disappointed I don’t even know how they sustained Patterson’s greatness in the first place. Factor in Patterson’s injury and I’m taking McLaurin here.

Tony Pollard or Darnell Mooney: Mooney, unless you have Ezekiel Elliott. Pollard is a low-floor, low-end flex with Zeke healthy. Mooney is on the rise.

A.J. Brown or Antonio Gibson: Right now it’s Gibson. I want the running back with a defined, heavy workload that’s trending up over a wide receiver who, for all his talents, does disappear every now and then.

Alvin Kamara or George Kittle: This is such a gamble. You’re clearly up against it if you’re making this trade, as Kamara’s injury status is incredibly vague. I’m going to say Kamara but don’t think I’d make this trade if I were on either side with the uncertainty surrounding Kamara.

David Montgomery or Deebo Samuel: Samuel. Even if Montgomery is healthy and Chicago’s RB1, Samuel presents a much higher ceiling and his now consistent involvement in the run game is incredible.

Myles Gaskin or Diontae Johnson: If you can pull this off, assuming you’re the one receiving Johnson, do that RIGHT now. I will end this column right here so you can go do that.

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TJ Horgan is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @tjhorgantv.

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