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1. Is Hunter Renfrow a WR1 moving forward?

The former Clemson wideout has been an underrated PPR player for a while now, but we’re starting to see his upside with Darren Waller sidelined as of late. Renfrow has a whopping 24 targets over his past two games, and he has hauled in 22 of them for 219 yards and a touchdown. That’s called efficiency combined with volume. Since the Raiders’ Week 8 bye, Renfrow has either scored a touchdown or topped 100 receiving yards in 5-of-6 contests.

The question becomes how trustworthy he’ll be during the fantasy football playoffs. For starters, Renfrow’s immediate outlook is increased with Waller sidelined. Per Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report, Renfrow’s route% has spiked to over 95% in both games sans Waller. Not only is Renfrow dominating routes lately, but checkdown king Derek Carr is targeting him aggressively. Renfrow’s 6.2 ADOT for the season meshes with Carr’s “short targets over the middle of the field” philosophy.

Even when the Raiders’ star tight end returns, one imagines that Renfrow has built up enough of a meaningful role to stay more involved than he had been prior to the injury. Without Waller he’s a low-end WR1. With Waller we can still start him as a low-end WR2.

2. Is Trevor Lawrence bad?

Well, he certainly hasn’t been good this year. According to Ben Baldwin’s database, the 2021 No. 1 overall pick has performed poorly both in terms of efficiency (EPA per play) and accuracy (CPOE). Here is an easy-to-digest image representation of how Lawrence has played this season.

The obvious elephant in the room is Urban Meyer’s frightening tenure as Jacksonville’s head coach. It’s hard to imagine any quarterback succeeding in this environment, especially in terms of efficiency. The only reason I’m unwilling to put 100% of the blame on Meyer is that Lawrence hasn’t even been accurate, which is generally viewed as a more independent measure of quarterback ability.

Of course, it’s easier to be accurate when the offense is optimally schemed up and QBs don’t feel as if they need to thread the needle on every drop back. Still, Lawrence has been so wildly inaccurate that it at least raises the question of how much blame belongs on Meyer.

There aren’t many immediate takeaways for Week 15 fantasy purposes as most playoff teams (even in SuperFlex formats) likely aren’t starting Lawrence. Yet this was supposedly a can’t-miss quarterback prospect who hasn’t just been bad. He has been awful. It’s difficult to feel confident about starting any Jaguars player right now. That includes James Robinson, whose utilization profiles as a RB2, but who rushed six times for four yards this past Sunday. Hopefully playoff-bound fantasy teams have an alternative option.

3. Can we trust Michael Carter right away?

As of this writing the expectation is for Carter (ankle, IR) to return in Week 15 against the Dolphins. When we last saw the rookie he was beginning to climb up the RB2 rankings, especially in PPR formats when he was getting peppered with targets from Mike White.

Those 9 and 14 targets games are unlikely to occur again, but Carter is still a talented RB who has improved throughout his rookie campaign. Entering Week 15 he ranks 30th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ success rate metric. Over at PFF Carter ranks 38th in breakaway% and seventh in elusive rating.

What these “advanced stats” tell me is that relative to his other attributes Carter has yet to show the ability to break off explosive runs (breakaway%), but he has been reasonably efficient (success rate) and is quite impressive at breaking/avoiding tackles (elusive rating).

Carter isn’t an elite running back as a rookie, but he has played well and that elusive rating gives us reason for optimism moving forward. Tevin Coleman (concussion) didn’t play in Week 14. If he remains out then Carter can be viewed as a RB2 right away. However, if Coleman plays then it’ll be tougher to trust Carter right away, as the Jets would likely deploy the dreaded three-way RBBC alongside Ty Johnson as well. It’s a situation to monitor throughout the week.

4. Would Chase Claypool be a WR1 with better quarterback play?

Yards per route run is my favorite stat to look at when evaluating wide receivers. It has proven to be stick year to year, and looking at this metric generally yields a list of the best wideouts in the NFL. For example, the top three receivers in YPRR in 2021 are Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, and Deebo Samuel. That makes sense. Checking in at No. 13? It’s Claypool, which was mildly surprising.

Claypool was an exciting breakout choice entering his sophomore season. He scored a whopping 11 touchdowns as a rookie. A downfield playmaker who was consistently utilized at the goal-line, Claypool certainly checked a lot of boxes entering ’21. We now know what the downside was and still is — the presence of Ben Roethlisberger. Through 14 games Big Ben ranks 24th in EPA per play and 25th in CPOE. He hasn’t been good.

Claypool is also dealing with some serious in-house target competition from Diontae Johnson. While that lowers his ceiling to an extent, Claypool has still been targeted on a strong 22% of his routes this season. We should also note that he has played through a series of minor injuries this season. A lot has been working against him, but not talent. His current profile looks like a WR2/3 for the fantasy playoffs (especially with better TD luck). He could be more on the WR1/2 borderline if Pittsburgh solves their quarterback dilemma next year.

Per @PFF among WRs with at least 75 targets, Chase Claypool ranks 6th in YAC per reception and 13th in Yards per route run

The talent is so obvious. But the QB play is so poor.

A year after running hot with 11 total TDs, he has just 1 entering Week 15

Remember this for '22

— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) December 15, 2021

5. Does anyone else stand out when looking at the YPRR leaders?

Tee Higgins, who is suddenly up to eighth with 2.22 YPRR for the season. This puts him just behind teammate Ja’Marr Chase (2.27). We talked about Higgins back in the Week 12 addition of this article, wondering whether or not fantasy production for him was strictly theoretical. Luckily for those who invested in him, the underlying utilization has caught up to his box score results. Over his past three contests the 22-year-old has erupted for 366 receiving yards and two scores. Consider him a strong WR2 throughout the fantasy playoffs.

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Brendan Tuma is a featured writer at FantasyPros. To read more from Brendan, check out his archive and follow him @toomuchtuma.