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5 Burning Questions For Week 17 (2021 Fantasy Football)

5 Burning Questions For Week 17 (2021 Fantasy Football)

Remember to reach out with questions on Twitter (@toomuchtuma) anytime.

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1. Will Aaron Rodgers win his second straight MVP award?

The 38-year-old hasn’t put up jaw-dropping counting stats this season. Entering Week 17 he’s tied for fourth in the NFL in passing touchdowns and checks in at 10th in passing yards. However, that is more so due to the Packers’ offensive identity than anything to do with Rodgers’ abilities. He remains one of the best quarterbacks alive, and when narrowing the scope down to league-wide efficiency stats among QBs, he might be the best.

Green Bay’s offense is a perfect marriage between a sound scheme combined with one of the best QB/WR duos playing in their primes. They continuously milk the clock, which is why Rodgers’ counting stats are so low. The Packers are so wildly efficient on offense that they basically play a version of “keep away” when possessing the ball, knowing they’ll be able to march down the field and put up points without the need for explosive plays.

Of course, Rodgers’ presence in Matt LaFleur’s offense means that explosive plays are still on the table, especially with Davante Adams still around. In Week 17 the team draws their NFC North rival, the Minnesota Vikings, on Sunday Night Football. Rodgers, Adams, Aaron Jones, and AJ Dillon are all in play for fantasy lineups in championship weekend. Should Rodgers wind up winning the MVP award it would be the fourth of his career.

2. Can we actually start Trey Lance in the fantasy finals?

There are so many factors to analyze when it comes to the rookie out of North Dakota State this weekend. First, we need to make sure Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t actually playing. The 30-year-old reportedly has a torn UCL and a fractured bone in his throwing thumb, which sounds like quite a big deal. Assuming Garoppolo is out, should fantasy managers actually consider giving Lance a chance?

I think the best way to approach Lance is as a low-floor, high-ceiling fantasy player. Let’s talk about the aforementioned factors to consider. Any Lance conversation should start with his legs. In the rookie’s lone start of the season, back in Week 5 against the Cardinals, he ran 16 times for 89 yards. We can expect the 49ers to be able to move the ball against the Texans, which should lead to multiple red zone trips for the offense. This could lead to several opportunities for Lance to rush it in for the score himself. This is where the QB1 ceiling comes into play.

There’s an alternative view to take, however. Lance’s accuracy wasn’t great in Week 5 as he completed just 15-of-29 passes for 192 yards and an interception. Perhaps Kyle Shanahan doesn’t feel as if Lance is fully ready yet, which could lead to a heavy rushing attack between the RBs and Deebo Samuel. In this scenario, San Francisco could cruise to a victory without really needing Lance’s services. He could also be inaccurate when called upon. This is where the low floor comes into play.

As of this writing we don’t yet know if Lamar Jackson (ankle) will play against the Rams on Sunday. Lance makes sense as a hedge for managers who roster Jackson as well. Otherwise, it’s unlikely that you’re in the fantasy finals and need Lance. If you’re going to start him, though, just know that he has a wide range of outcomes.

3. Is Saquon Barkley usable anymore?

This is a situation where if you drafted Barkley in 2021, then you might not be in the fantasy finals. However, we still need to talk about this situation. The former No. 2 overall pick out of Penn State hit another low in Week 16, totaling just 28 yards on 16 touches!! Incredibly, he played on just 34% of the snaps as the Giants were thoroughly dominated by the Eagles. Barkley has one touchdown in six games since returning from injury. He has yet to have a game with at least 65 rushing yards in 2021.

Entering Sunday’s game against the Bears, the 24-year-old ranks 44th in PFF’s elusive rating and 33rd in yards per route run. His best attribute as a RB is his ability to break long runs. His breakaway rate on PFF checks in at 15th best in the NFL, but backup Devontae Booker is right behind him at 17.

The most worrisome metric for Barkley, however, is that he currently ranks 40th in Next Gen Stats’ success rate. Booker ranks 22nd. It’s becoming hard to make the case for what Barkley does better than Booker in 2021. Add in the current Mike Glennon/Jake Fromm quarterback duo in New York, and it’s even harder to make a case for starting Barkley this weekend. His 2022 ADP will be fascinating to monitor.

4. Are we running it back with Ronald Jones?

Bruce Arians' favorite whipping boy came through for fantasy managers in Week 16. Jones rushed 20 times for 65 yards and a touchdown against Carolina, adding two receptions for 16 yards through the air. He wasn't particularly efficient, but he got the job done for fantasy purposes.

Per Dwain McFalrand's Utilization Report (PFF), Jones played on 52% of the snaps and was Tampa Bay's lead back on early downs. Meanwhile, Ke'Shawn Vaughn handled roughly 3/4 of the long-down-and-distance and two-minute offense snaps. Jones coming off the field for these situations shouldn't come as a huge surprise, and it also might not matter all that much.

That's because the Bucs should once again see some incredibly positive game script against the Jets during the fantasy finals. The offense likely won't have many third-and-long scenarios, and the team could be in clock-killing mode for most of the second half. The Jets rank 32nd (dead last) in PFF's run defense grade. Jones is a low-end RB1 for championship weekend.

5. We're starting Sony Michel, right?

Darrell Henderson landed on IR after Week 16. He didn't receive a touch until the fourth quarter as Michel had fully usurped the starting job even before the injury. Entering Week 17, Michel should be viewed as a locked-in fantasy RB1, despite a less-than-ideal matchup against the Ravens.

It all comes down to utilization. Again, referencing McFarland's work at PFF, Michel operated like an every-down back this past weekend. He played on 90% of the snaps, which included 100% of the opportunities related to short-down-and-distance, inside the five, and the two-minute offense.

Cam Akers (Achilles) might have a surprising chance to suit up against Baltimore, but it would be shocking if he took on a meaningful role. LA's offense has seen a resurgence behind their revamped power-running philosophy, with Michel at the center of new approach. Don't overthink it. He's a bell-cow RB playing in one of the best offenses in football. Start him where you have him.

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Brendan Tuma is a featured writer at FantasyPros. To read more from Brendan, check out his archive and follow him @toomuchtuma.

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