Congrats on making it to the championship! The lineup decisions you make now will be the most important of your entire season, resulting in you winning your league’s title or falling short and thinking of what could’ve been. Considering that the pandemic is still looming large, any of the players we list can head to the reserve/COVID list at any given time, so please stay vigilant. With that being said, our featured pros have come together to bring you their favorite sleepers and their biggest duds of the week for the final time this season. Read on below to see who they recommend playing if you’re in a pinch and who you should lower your expectations for.
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Q1. Who is a player outside of our top 100 flex rankings that is a deep sleeper start and why do you think he has upside this week?
Zay Jones (WR – LV)
“In a weird season, could there be anything weirder than Jones becoming a reliable option? He has caught at least five balls in three straight games and in four of the past five outings. Jones sits tied for 11th among WRs in targets over the past three weeks and is tied for 15th over the past five weeks. He ranks 40th in total PPR points over the past three weeks without scoring a TD in that span. Now Jones and the Raiders head to Indy as six-point underdogs to face a defense whose top corner (Kenny Moore) operates primarily in the slot (Hunter Renfrow territory). Don’t overreach for Jones, but he’s a PPR flex option — or even a WR3 in deeper leagues.”
– Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks)
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
“Assuming he comes off the COVID-19 list, Stevenson is a good bet to get double-digit carries this week against the Jaguars. Stevenson has gotten double-digit carries in five of his last six games, and he’s averaged 12.6 carries in the last five games that he and Damien Harris have played together. The Patriots have one of the run-heaviest offenses in the league, and they might be especially run-heavy this week as 15.5-point home favorites in a cold-weather game against the hapless Jaguars.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Ke’Shawn Vaughn (RB – TB)
“Vaughn showed explosiveness last week. Although I don’t like the volume he had (only 23% of the total touches), he has such a favorable matchup that it is feasible he could give replicate his production from last week with a long carry and a TD. The Jets have allowed at least 15 fantasy points to RBs in five consecutive games.”
– Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy)
Derrick Gore (RB – KC)
“Gore has all-purpose upside in Week 17 against the Bengals. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire likely out, Gore and Darrell Williams will split the backfield. When given the opportunity, Gore has been pleasantly productive and has more TD equity than other low-ranked flex options because he plays with Patrick Mahomes.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Q2. On the flip side, what player inside the top 40 flex rankings is likely to disappoint fantasy managers this week?
Melvin Gordon (RB – LAC)
“Gordon has been trending down considerably in the last three weeks, not only in terms of production (23.1, 6.6, and 0.5 half-PPR fantasy points), but also in volume (24, 15, and seven touches). He has a favorable matchup, but it could very well be a game where Javonte Williams heavily outscores Gordon, just as it happened in Week 12 againts the Chargers (Williams outscored Gordon 18.6 to 9.3 in half-PPR fantasy points).”
– Mauricio Gutierrez (Estadio Fantasy)
“I think Melvin Gordon is toast. Sure, on paper the matchup versus the Chargers is appealing, but with Drew Lock under center and Javonate Williams clearly looking like the healthier, more explosive back, I would do all that I could to avoid starting Gordon this week.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
D.K. Metcalf (WR – SEA)
“Since Russell Wilson’s Week 10 return, only 12 wideouts have seen more targets than D.K. Metcalf. However, 48 of them have scored more PPR points — including Jakeem Grant, Jamison Crowder, and two Jaguars. Metcalf has failed to deliver in consecutive losses, first with Tyler Lockett missing and then with Lockett barely involved after coming off the COVID list. Detroit holds nothing scary in coverage but has been a negative matchup for WR scoring — in part because the Lions can’t score enough to force you to throw. That should be cool with Seattle, whose offense would rather not throw anyway and struggles to stay on the field. Metcalf doesn’t belong among the top 24 WRs in any format heading into this week.”
– Matt Schauf (Draft Sharks)
Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS)
“It has to be Gibson. He’s averaging 30.3 rushing yards over his last three games. He’s dealing with turf toe and a stress fracture in his shin. He’s going up against a good Eagles run defense that’s allowing 3.9 yards per carry. The Washington offense has hit the skids, averaging 239.3 yards over its last three games. It seems unlikely we’ll get a ceiling game out of Gibson this week, and his floor is uncomfortably low.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Thank you to all the experts for giving their sleeper starts and duds. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice. Also, please check out our latest podcast episode below.
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