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9 Sleeper Starts & Duds: Week 16 (Fantasy Football)


 
Injuries and COVID figure to make fantasy football’s penultimate week another tough one. Austin Ekeler, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Tyler Lockett are just a few high-profile athletes who are dealing with the worrisome virus. Hopefully, these players will end up being alright and fantasy managers will have them at their disposal this week. Keep in mind too that games can always be postponed as well, just like last week. In a week where football is already present on four days, any extra schedule switches may only serve to make life even more difficult for fantasy managers, most of whom certainly have at least one player suffering from a non-COVID ailment as well.

It’s probable that the healthiest fantasy squads will likely be the ones to advance to the title bout. Much like last year, luck is unfortunately primed to play a larger role than usual in determining which fake football teams are the most successful. Regardless, we here at FantasyPros are committed to guiding you through all the mayhem each and every week. Our featured experts have arrived once again to assist with your difficult lineup decisions. Together, they share their thoughts on this week’s top sleepers and disappointments below.

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Q1. Who is a player outside of our top 100 flex rankings that is a deep sleeper start and why do you think he has upside this week?

Jordan Howard (RB – PHI) 
“It wasn’t clear how the Eagles were going to deploy their four running backs in Week 15, but any questions about Philadelphia’s RB usage were answered Tuesday night: Miles Sanders is No. 1, Howard is No. 2, and no one else matters. Howard’s role is valuable on a team that’s gone full Big Ten on us, running the ball on 63% of its offensive plays since Week 8. Howard had 15 carries for 69 yards on Tuesday and should be a decent flex play this week against a Giants defense that has yielded the eighth most fantasy points (0.5 PPR) to running backs.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

“The Eagles host the Giants this week as double-digit favorites, and I expect Jordan Howard to get plenty of carries in a positive game script. He played nearly as many snaps as Miles Sanders against Washington in Week 15, as Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott were afterthoughts in the offense. The Giants come in ranked 24th against fantasy running backs and are at the bottom of the league in time of possession. Howard likely won’t see a target in the passing game, but 12 carries for 70 yards and a touchdown would be a helpful stat line in your flex spot.”
– Bart Wheeler (Hail to Fantasy Football)

Laquon Treadwell (WR – JAC) 
“Treadwell has not been a huge fantasy asset since joining the Jaguars, but he has strung together four straight weeks of at least four receptions and 53 receiving yards, ending no worse than WR44 during that stretch, making him a decent, albeit uneventful, WR3/flex play. In the first Jaguars game post-Urban Meyer, Treadwell played nearly every snap (97%) and led the team in targets (nine). Now the Jaguars get to face off against the underwhelming and beatable Jets secondary that ranks 12th overall in Fantasy Points Allowed Over Average to opposing WRs (BRoto Fantasy App), in one of the easiest tests to date for rookie QB Trevor Lawrence. Desperate times call for desperate measures, and Treadwell may just be the unlikely hero-ho-ho for fantasy teams this holiday season.”
– Michael Petropoulos (BRoto Fantasy)

Jalen Guyton (WR – LAC) 
“Assuming he is activated off the reserve/COVID-19 list, Guyton for the Chargers has a great matchup this week against the Texans. It is always hard to predict touchdowns, but he is on a streak, having scored a TD in each of his last three games. The Texans have given up 20 touchdowns this year, and Guyton always has the chance to take the top off of a defense.”
– Dan Yanotchko (EDSFootball)

Tyler Johnson (WR – TB) 
“Assuming that Mike Evans doesn’t play (which I think is likely), then Johnson has the opportunity to take on a much bigger role. Antonio Brown’s conditioning is likely to see him play less than a full complement of snaps against the Panthers, and Johnson saw seven targets against the Saints. Breshad Perriman may return from the reserve/COVID-19 list and Scotty Miller may see a bigger role, but Johnson looked to be moving into the third receiver role even before the injuries to Chris Godwin and Evans. Tom Brady needs to establish a rapport with his other receivers now that Godwin is lost for the season, so Johnson should be in line for 6-8 targets once again.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

Q2. On the flip side, what player inside the top 40 flex rankings is likely to disappoint fantasy managers this week?

Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL) 
“Elliott is approaching nearly -100 rushing yards over expected (BRoto Fantasy App) over his last 100 rush attempts on the season. Over the last two weeks, he has carried the ball 28 times, just three more than the combined carries of his respective backups for each week, Corey Clement and Tony Pollard. The running game is not the only place where Zeke has lost his juice, as he has topped 25 receiving yards just once since the Cowboys’ Week 7 bye. With a dreadful matchup against the Washington Football Team in Week 16, a team that ranks 27th in total Fantasy Points Allowed Over Average (BRoto Fantasy App) to opposing RBs and 32nd in Fantasy Points Allowed Over Average if you break it down to only rushing stats for opposing RBs, Zeke may just be the scrooge for your team in your semifinals matchup. He will be highly TD dependent and managers better hope he falls into the end zone.”
– Michael Petropoulos (BRoto Fantasy)

Michael Pittman (WR – IND) 
“It’s hard to feel confident in Pittman these days. In Week 8, the Colts lost an overtime game to the Titans in which they largely abandoned the run, with Carson Wentz throwing 51 times. Since then, Indy has been extremely run-heavy, throwing on only 44% of its offensive plays. Pittman has averaged 3.8 catches and 49.2 receiving yards per game, with only one touchdown. He has a tough matchup this week against an Arizona defense that’s given up the fifth fewest passing yards this season.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)

Hunter Renfrow (WR – LV) 
“Not many wide receivers have been as consistent as Renfrow this year, but he posted a dud in Cleveland last week with just three catches for 32 yards. This week he’ll face a Denver defense that has been stingy to opposing fantasy WRs this season and that conceded just three catches for 36 yards to Renfrow in Week 6. With Darren Waller possibly back in the fold this week, I don’t expect double-digit targets from Renfrow in an already tough matchup. While he typically has a safe floor, I worry he won’t provide that high upside here in the fantasy playoffs when you need it the most.”
– Bart Wheeler (Hail to Fantasy Football)

Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG) 
“Barkley has disappointed fantasy managers all season, so I’m not sure why Week 16 would be any different. Whether it’s Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm taking the majority of the snaps this weekend, it’s unlikely that the Giants will have much success on offense, even with the Eagles’ defense being on short rest. Barkley has ceded plenty of snaps to Devontae Booker over recent weeks, and there’s little incentive for the Giants to push him in a lost season. He gained just 53 total yards on 17 touches against the Eagles in their last game, and I’d expect similar production here. I’d try to avoid him this week if I could.”
– Dan Harris (FantasyPros)

Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF) 
“Diggs will have a tough day against New England this week. The last time the Bills faced the Patriots, he had four catches on seven targets for just 51 yards. Now add the fact that Cole Beasley has been added to the COVID list, and this means the Patriots will be able to utilize J.C. Jackson one-on-one and roll Adrian Phillips over the top to prevent the explosive play. Most receivers have it tough enough with Jackson alone.”
– Dan Yanotchko (EDSFootball)


Thank you to all the experts for giving their sleeper starts and duds. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter for more great advice. Also, please check out our latest podcast episode below.


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