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NFL Daily Fantasy Stacking Advice: Week 17 (2021)

Dec 31, 2021
Josh Allen

Greetings from week 17 of DFS Stacking. This weekly series aims to identify some of the more favorable stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel, both cash and tournament contests. Need more help setting some lineups? Make sure to check out our DFS Lineup Optimizer for quick and easy assistance to build some winning lineups.

This article is focused on covering Sunday’s main slate of games.

As more and more seasonal redraft fantasy players find themselves out of playoff contention, the focus shifts to DFS. Get an edge by keeping up with the DFS content here and FantasyPros.

Author’s Note: Please check player’s notes for any injury or potential Covid list updates. With the recent exposure rates spiking, it is recommended to check when setting lineups and again before respective games kick-off.

This week’s main slate has 14 games to choose from, making it one of the deepest player pools we have seen this season.

Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool >>

For the most up-to-date betting odds, lines, and totals make sure you’re checking out BettingPros.

 

Stacks to Target

DraftKings

Josh Allen (QB, BUF) $8000 / Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF) $7900 / Gabriel Davis (WR, BUF) $5000

We will start with a solid foundational cash game build. The current QB1 in all of fantasy, and the highest DK points per game average for the position, Josh Allen kicks this one off. The Bills host the Falcons, who are somehow still in the playoff hunt. Honestly, part of the intrigue to this play is the fact that the Falcons have something to play for. The Bills have a solid defense, hence the middle-of-the-road implied point total. Expect Matt Ryan and company to come out swinging and try to make some noise in this one, forcing Allen, and his competitive nature, to fight back.

Stefon Diggs has not repeated the WR1 performance he had last season, but boasts a healthy 17.2 DK points per game average and remains Allen's primary target with a 25.5 target share percentage. The Falcons allow the fourth-most production to the wide receiver position.

The contrarian and possible tournament play here is Gabriel Davis, who should be back this game after a short Covid stint. Yes, Cole Beasley should also be back and is a viable option as well and Emmanuel Sanders logged a limited practice and could suit up for this one as well. Davis has four touchdowns over the last three weeks and six on the season. He's a playmaker that knows how to cash in when his number is called in the red zone. With the receiving core back at near full strength, targets will be muddled after Diggs takes his off the top. My favorite receiver to capitalize on these targets is Davis.

 

Kyler Murray (QB, ARI) $7300 / Christian Kirk (WR, ARI) $5800 / Zach Ertz (TE, ARI) $5200

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals are riding a three-game losing streak as they head into a week 17 matchup against a Dallas Cowboys team that is riding a four-game winning streak. This game has shootout potential scribbled in every nook and cranny. But, due to recent poor play from a team perspective, a lot of people are off of Kyler and company as viable DFS plays, which reduces roster exposure.

Murray has not played exceptionally well over the last four weeks, posting four passing touchdowns to three interceptions during that span. However, he has rushed for 50 or more yards in three of those. His point-scoring floor can be safely buoyed by his legs and nearly negates mistakes or simply softens them. In a shoot-out kind of match and a lower than normal expected roster percentage, Murray can work in both cash and tournaments games.

Zach Ertz is tied for third among tight ends in red-zone targets over the last four weeks. Of his seven red-zone targets, he has converted three receptions into two touchdowns. The Cowboys just allowed a touchdown to a tight end many people have never heard of last week and surrendered one to Ertz back in week three, although he was wearing a different jersey at the time. Ertz has 24 targets over the last two games and should continue to see high-value targets in this matchup. At a reasonable salary, fire him up.

Christian Kirk is averaging nine targets and 15.9 DK points over the last three weeks. Murray had been spreading the ball around generously until DeAndre Hopkins went down for the remainder of the regular season. Since then, Ertz and Kirk have soaked up the bulk of those vacated targets, making both viable PPR targets and at reasonable salaries.

With the highest expected point total on the slate, pieces of both sides of this game should be scattered across rosters.

 

Trey Lance (QB, SF) $4800 / Deebo Samuel (WR, SF) $8700 / George Kittle (TE, SF) $7100

Disclaimer, this stack comes down to whether or not Jimmy Garoppolo is able to suit up and play through a thumb ligament injury. If Trey Lance steps in as the starter for this game, he will be in a tidy pile of my lineups. At $4.8K, virtually all risk is removed by his rushing upside. It is a versatile offense that can be operated in a variety of ways, including Lance's run-and-gun style. In his first start this season, Lance rushed for 89 yards on 16 carries. In the prior game, he threw two touchdown passes on nine completions in a relief role. At the cost, Lance represents more upside than risk which is always the recipe for a winning tournament roster.

All six of George Kittle's touchdowns have occurred since returning from injury. In that span, he is second among the position in targets, receiving yards, and tied for first in touchdowns. It would be a shame if the opposing defense was overly generous to tight ends. Oh...wait, the Texans allow the seventh-most fantasy points to the position. Kittle is my preferred stacking option due to cost and how bleak the position can be.

That being said, Deebo Samuel, though quieter recently, still finds ways to score seemingly every week. His hybrid role keeps him nearly bust-proof even with an inexperienced rookie under center.

 

Honorable Mentions: Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR) $7100 / Cooper "All I Do Is Win" Kupp (WR, LAR) $9500 - Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, LAR) $5700 - Joe Burrow (QB, CIN) $6900 / Tee Higgins (WR, CIN) $6900 / Joe Mixon (RB, CIN) $7500

FanDuel

Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC) $8500 / Tyreek Hill (WR, KC) $8200 / Travis Kelce (TE, KC) $8200

Dominance. That is what fantasy managers wanted from Patrick Mahomes this season. Unbridled dominance. In the middle of the season, Twitter was filled with complaints about Mahomes and the lack of production. Here we are in week 17 and Mahomes is the QB4 in fantasy scoring and QB6 in FD points on a per-game basis. He is tied for fourth in touchdown passes and has already secured an appearance in the postseason. He has thrown for multiple touchdown passes in all but five games this season, including three of the last four. The Bengals defense has allowed 300-plus passing yards to five different quarterbacks this season, including Josh Johnson who was playing for his second team this season. 

The usual suspects are in play as well. Tyreek Hill is already over 1,100 receiving yards and has nine receiving touchdowns. He and his 26.2% target share will strut into Cincinnati with the goal of rebounding from a poor outing last week. While improved, the Chiefs defense can still be scored on and Burrow has been playing aggressively enough to warrant a higher scoring affair than what Las Vegas is currently implying.

Likewise, Travis Kelce will look to build on his most successful fantasy outing of the season against a Bengals defense that almost entirely ignores the tight end position. His mismatch potential will pay off in this game when paired with his redzone prowess. He should be in lineups, stacked or not.

 

Dak Prescott (QB, DAL) $7400 / CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL) $7200 / Michael Gallup (WR, DAL) $5800

Production has been erratic for Dak Prescott this season. First of all, after three seasons of six rushing touchdowns followed by two more of three rushing touchdowns, he only has one rushing score this season and has dialed back his scrambling. He has eight games of 250 passing yards or less and five games with either zero or only one touchdown pass. While less consistent than we have become accustomed to, he has seven games of 20 or more FD points and is facing a Cardinals defense that has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in four of their last five games.

CeeDee Lamb has not scored a touchdown since week 10 or cleared 100 receiving yards since week eight. Since week 13, the Cardinals have allowed eight touchdowns to wide receivers and 21 total to the position this season. Lamb is averaging 8.1 targets and 12.9 FD points per game this season. Lamb will be facing Byron Murphy, who has allowed 12.7 yards per reception in coverage and a 61% catch rate in coverage.

Michael Gallup has a nice matchup, facing either Marco Wilson or Antonio Hamilton on the perimeter. Gallup is averaging 7.2 targets per game and excels when defensive attention is focused on either Lamb or Amari Cooper.

Dalton Schultz is the one to avoid in this matchup. The Cardinals defend the tight end position better than receivers and have only allowed two touchdowns to the position all season.

 

Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI) $7900 / (DeVonta Smith) $6100 / Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI) $5800

Rushing quarterbacks are built for FanDuel lineups. Especially ones that keep goal-line rushing opportunities for themselves. Jalen Hurts checks those boxes. He did not run as much last week, which is going to lead to a reduced rostered percentage; this in turn makes him a solid tournament option this week at a reasonable salary. Hurts has finished with less than 20 FD points in only five games this season. He has a safe floor despite minimum passing yard production. The last time the Eagles faced the Football Team, Hurts threw for just under 300 yards and had three total touchdowns.

Dallas Goedert was quiet last week but dominated this matchup with 135 receiving yards in their last tilt.  I'm not projecting that same stat line this week, but Goedert and DeVonta Smith are far and away the preferred targets in this minimalistic passing approach. Goedert is averaging six targets per game over the last five games and 9.1 FD points per game this season. Meanwhile, Smith is averaging 6.2 targets and 9.4 FD points per game.

Hurts may run less than normal in this matchup, which will bolster both Goedert and Smith against a fantasy-friendly defense. This is a solid foundational tournament build that allows flexibility at other positions.

Honorable Mentions: Joe Burrow (QB, CIN) $7700 / Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN) $7600 / Tee Higgins (WR, CIN) $7000 - Justin Herbert (QB, LAC) $8200 / Keenan Allen (WR, LAC) $7300 / Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC) $9000

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John Hesterman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @John_Hesterman.

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