NBA DFS Primer: Wednesday (1/12)
The Tuesday was a successful one for yours truly, and we’re going to keep that momentum rolling here. We’ve gotten back to some sense of normalcy, with far fewer players in the dreaded COVID protocols. It’s clear that the NBA has relaxed its stance on the testing, and it’s very beneficial to us fantasy players!
After just six games on Tuesday, we’re back to nine games here. That means a full slate and an expansive player pool! There’s a lot of fun games and many exciting things to discuss, so let’s go ahead and get into it!
Schedule and Odds
- BOS at IND (BOS -3) O/U: 211
- CHA at PHI (PHI -5.5) O/U: 226.5
- ORL at WAS (WAS -7.5) O/U: 217.5
- MIA at ATL (ATL -4) O/U: 223.5
- DAL at NYK (DAL -1) O/U: 207.5
- HOU at SAS (SAS -5) O/U: 232.5
- CLE at UTA (UTA -6.5) O/U: 222
- BKN at CHI (BKN -1) O/U: 228
- LAL at SAC (LAL -2.5) O/U: 230.5
- Bradley Beal (COVID) OUT
- Ben Simmons (Personal) OUT
- Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles) Questionable
- Caris LeVert (COVID) OUT
- Kelly Oubre (COVID) OUT
- Tyrese Maxey (COVID) OUT
- Wendell Carter Jr (hamstring) Questionable
- Jalen Suggs (hand) OUT
- Jimmy Butler (ankle) Questionable
- Bam Adebayo (hand) OUT
- Cam Reddish (ankle) Questionable
- Clint Capela (ankle) Questionable
- Kristaps Porzingis (COVID) OUT
- Kemba Walker (knee) Questionable
- Derrick Rose (ankle) OUT
- Keldon Johnson (COVID) OUT
- Derrick White (COVID) OUT
- Collin Sexton (knee) OUT
- Ricky Rubio (knee) OUT
- Rudy Gobert (COVID) OUT
- Joe Ingles (COVID) OUT
- James Harden (knee) Questionable
- Kyrie Irving (ankle) Questionable
- Alex Caruso (ankle) OUT
- Anthony Davis (knee) OUT
- Richaun Holmes (COVID) OUT
Dejounte Murray (PG – SAS): $9,700 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
This is my favorite play of the day! The numbers for Murray speak for themselves, with Dejounte averaging 18.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, 8.9 assists, and 2.1 steals per game. Those stat-stuffing ways make him intriguing against anyone, but Houston has been the best matchup in fantasy. The Rockets rank second in pace and dead-last in both points allowed and defensive efficiency. I usually don’t bet players recording triple-doubles, but if you find anything above +400, I’d hop on that as well.
Kyle Lowry (PG – MIA): $7,600 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
With Butler and Bam expected to miss this game, it’s another chance for Lowry to run the show. He’s been doing just that, averaging 36 DK points per game when both of those guys are out of the lineup. We love that production in a matchup like this, with Atlanta ranked 27th in defensive efficiency and 25th in points allowed.
De’Aaron Fox (PG – SAC): $7,500 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel
A point guard facing the Lakers is a godsend. This season, Los Angeles surrenders the most fantasy points to opposing points, ranked 27th in points allowed and third in pace. Those numbers are horrifying against a speedster like this, with Fox scoring at least 43 DraftKings points in four of his last six games. In addition, he’s averaging 42.7 DK points per game in his three meetings with the Lake Show this season.
Cash Game Considerations
LeBron James (SF – LAL): $11,700 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
LeBron is the greatest basketball player of all time, in my opinion, and he’s playing like it recently. Over the last 11 games, LBJ has been averaging 34.2 points, 9.6 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game. He’s also scored at least 47 DK points in all of those, en route to a ridiculous 63-point average. That makes him the best cash game play on the board, especially against a 26th-ranked Kings defense.
Joel Embiid (C – PHI): $11,200 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel
Joel has been almost as hot as James, scoring at least 53 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games. Reaching 50-plus fantasy points is easy for this guy, but it should be cake in a matchup like this. Charlotte sits first in pace, 28th in defensive efficiency, and 29th in points allowed. They’re also surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers as well, with Embiid averaging 62.4 DK points per game in their two meetings this season.
Spencer Dinwiddie (PG – WAS): $6,000 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
As long as Dinwiddie plays here, he’s the best value of the day. Something is different with this guy when Beal is out of the lineup, scoring at least 29 DraftKings points in all six games he’s missed. More importantly, he leads the team with a 31 percent usage rate while averaging nearly 50 fantasy points per game in those circumstances. We also don’t mind that he faces a 25th-ranked Orlando defense either.
Christian Wood (C – HOU): $6,900 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
Injuries and disciplinary issues have kept Wood’s price a bit too cheap. Those aforementioned issues are why he’s in the GPP section, though, because you never know what could happen. In any case, Wood is an $8K player when he’s right and can regularly provide 40-50 fantasy point games at ease. We love that sort of upside in this matchup, with the Spurs surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
Jakob Poeltl (C – SAS): $6,300 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel
We love this San Antonio-Houston matchup! These two teams sit Top-5 in pace, and both are subpar defenses. That means Poeltl should provide his usual 30 DK points, scoring at least 27 fantasy points in 25 of 33 games this season. He’s also got at least 29 DraftKings points in eight straight games, generating a 36-point average in that span.
Richaun Holmes (C – SAC): $5,500 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Holmes has been in and out of the lineup with numerous ailments, but he’s another guy that’s way too cheap. This dude was between $7-8K last season, and he can definitely play at that level on any given night. A matchup against a 27th-ranked Lakers defense is an excellent way to get him back on track, with Richaun registering 43 DK points in their one meeting earlier this season.
Matisse Thybulle (SF – PHI): $4,100 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
Thybulle has always been one of the best defensive players in the NBA, and it looks like Philly is finally giving him all the minutes he can handle. He’s actually played at least 26 minutes in six straight games, averaging 19 DK points per game across 32 minutes a night in that span. That’s a terrible rate but getting 32 minutes from a $4,100 player is hard to overlook, especially against one of the worst defenses in the NBA.
Onyeka Okongwu (C – ATL): $3,900 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
With Capela expected to miss this game. Onyeka should get another start at center. In the last game without CC over the weekend, OO played 38 minutes! He only had 23 DraftKings points, but that looks like the floor as long as he keeps getting a workload like that. We say that because Okongwu is averaging 22 DK points per game across 23 minutes a night for the season, a fantastic rate from a player with an expanded role.
Aaron Holiday (PG – WAS): $3,200 DraftKings, $4,000 FanDuel
There’s a chance that Dinwiddie is rested in the second half of a back-to-back set here. If that’s the case, Holiday should get the start at point guard and could be looking at 25-30 minutes of action. That makes him one of the best values sitting around the minimum on both sites, especially with Beal out as well. If Dinwiddie does play, go ahead and avoid Holiday.
- Spencer Dinwiddie (PG – WAS): $6,000 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel
- Russell Westbrook: (PG – LAL) $9,600 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel
- Jalen Brunson (PG/SG – DAL): $7,700 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel
- Lance Stephenson (SG/SF – IND): $5,100 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
- Tyler Herro (SG – MIA): $7,800 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
- Zach LaVine (SG – CHI): $8,800 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
- Myles Turner (C – IND): $6,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel