Skip to main content

NFL Conference Championship Round Picks: Against the Spread, Over/Under & Prop Bets (2022 Playoffs)

Jan 28, 2022

 
Two weeks ago, the vast majority of football fans likely didn’t envision either San Francisco or Cincinnati making it this far. We’re only two days away from both of these Cinderella teams facing extremely talented opponents in Los Angeles and Kansas City, respectively, who are playing at the peak of their power. These spreads at first glance do appear to favor the underdogs, but let’s not forget how high-powered the Rams’ and Chiefs’ offenses are or underestimate the prowess of Matthew Stafford and Patrick Mahomes.

We didn’t have the best week ATS, going 1-4. but we finished 3-1 on the over/under and 3-2 on the prop bets. Here’s hoping our most accurate betting experts will turn things around against the spread this week. Read on to see their favorite betting picks below.

View all major prop bets for each player and team >> 

View picks from the entire consensus for each Conference Championship playoff game:

CIN @ KC (-7.5) | SF @ LAR (-3.5)

Q1. Which team are you most confident in against the spread and why?

San Francisco (+3.5) hasn’t lost to L.A since 2018. This year, the 49ers took the Rams to OT (where SF won by three) and cruised to a 31-10 victory. San Francisco is banged up, but my money is on all of their key guys playing — OT Trent Williams included.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)

“On the surface, many will look to the advantage the Rams have with Matthew Stafford over Jimmy Garoppolo. But I’m looking at the coaching matchup which has been heavily in favor of Kyle Shanahan over Sean McVay recently (6-0). I expect Shanahan’s 49ers (+3.5) to run the ball well against LA, control the time of possession, and keep this game close. Even if the Rams figure out a way to win, I don’t think it’ll be by more than a field goal.”
– Bart Wheeler (Hail to Fantasy Football)

“The San Fransico 49ers (+3.5) have owned Sean McVay. They have won six times in a row in this division matchup. This is the best team the Rams are fielding against the 49ers but a 3.5-point spread is too much. This one shouldn’t be overthought. Sometimes a team just owns another — ask the 1999 Jacksonville Jaguares how it feels to only lose three games all year to the same team, the Tennessee Titans.”
– Doug Roth (FantasyPros)

“I don’t know why this spread is more than three points, so I have to go 49ers (+3.5). Kyle Shanahan seems to have a noticeable edge on Sean McVay and that’s what I’m betting on. There’s a chance Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ defense continue to roll, but I’m not sold on them putting together four good quarters.”
– Adam Zdroik (RotoWire)

“One of the most difficult things any NFL team can do is beat a division rival three times in a single season. The Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) enter this game riding a wave of momentum after late-game heroics propelled them into the NFC Championship. Although LA has lost both matchups this season, both the offense and defense seem to be clicking at the right time. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has been blistering hot as he’s averaged 284 yards and a TD/INT ratio of 4:0 through two playoff games. With his ability to push the ball down the field and consistently hit the open target, I think it will be too much for San Fransisco, and as a result, LA takes the final matchup in this series and moves onto the Super Bowl.”
– Derek Yoder (Picks By Blaze)

“The key for the Bengals (+7.5) to keep this game close is going to be the offensive line and how quickly Joe Burrow can get the ball out of his hand. While I’m not so confident that Cincinnati can win the game outright in Arrowhead, 7.5 points is a large spread in a championship game. It was only three weeks ago we saw the Bengals beat this Chiefs team in a game that had Joe Burrow throw for almost 450 yards and four touchdowns.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed)

View more picks against the spread from dozens of experts >>

Q2. Which matchup are you most confident in picking the over/under and why?

CIN at KC: 54.5 – Over
“Kansas City’s games alone have eclipsed this mark 10 times during the regular season, and their two playoff games have blown it away. Over their last seven games (including the postseason), the Chiefs have averaged 37 points per game. The Bengals’ offense is nothing to write off either, as they averaged 27 points per game during the season. Joe Burrow and company are going to have to at least hit that number in order to keep up and possibly win this game, in what many envision as a championship shootout.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed)

“This game ended 34-31 back in Week 17. With the weather for this weekend looking favorable for offensive production, I see another close, high-scoring game unfolding. Also note that Kansas City enters with 28+ points in seven straight.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)

“We all love to root for overs — let’s be real — so go with the over in the Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs. They last met in Week 17, when both teams combined for 65 points. They should be able to reach 54.5 with ease, especially with the Chiefs’ recent track record in the playoffs.”
– Doug Roth (FantasyPros)

“I like the over 54.5 points between the Bengals and Chiefs and I’ll probably take it up to 56. I think the Chiefs should be around the 35-point range because the Bengals’ defense isn’t going to stop them. And for the Bengals to have a chance, they’ll need to score. So even if the Chiefs get out to another big lead, I think the Bengals can score enough for the over to hit.”
– Adam Zdroik (RotoWire)

CIN at KC: 54.5 – Under
“I don’t feel great about taking an under the way the Chiefs have been clicking on offense in their last seven games, but I’m doing it anyway. When these two teams faced off earlier this month, Kansas City gave up too many big plays (specifically to Ja’Marr Chase). But after seeing the Titans run right through Cincy’s offensive line and sack Joe Burrow nine times last week, I think the Chiefs can make adjustments and bring plenty of pressure without rushing more than four or five guys. Having more defensive backs on the field while also making Burrow uncomfortable should help prevent those big plays from happening and force more punts from the Bengals. As long as the Chiefs don’t score more than 5five touchdowns, I think this one will stay under 54.5 and KC will win with relative ease this time around.”
– Bart Wheeler (Hail to Fantasy Football)

SF at LAR: 45.5 – Under
“With the total in the 49ers/Rams game sitting at 45.5 points, this number is entirely way too high, and I’ll tell you why. San Fransisco loves to run the ball at their pace. Ranked in the bottom tier of offensive efficiency, if the 49ers aren’t scoring touchdowns, they’re killing the clock. The LA Rams have also been dominant in clock management as they’ve averaged 34 minutes per game and have seen a much higher offensive efficiency through the playoffs. Both teams know each other as well as anybody, and I believe it will be a low-scoring game with both teams taking a lot of time off the clock each quarter. Give me under 45.5!”
– Derek Yoder (Picks By Blaze)

View full set of consensus Over/Under game picks here >>

Q3. What is your single favorite prop bet for this weekend’s games and why?

Cam Akers: 60.5 Rushing Yards – Under
“I was fine taking the under on this one earlier in the week when the number was under 60. Now that it’s at 60.5, I’m aggressively doing just that. San Francisco has been one of the better defenses against the run during the season, and Akers hasn’t been impressive since coming back from tearing his Achilles. Akers received 24 carries against Tampa Bay last week and was still held to under 50 yards rushing. San Francisco’s defensive line can have similar success in the NFC Championship.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed)

“Cam Akers has looked healthy since returning from a torn Achilles this past offseason. Yet his inability to hold onto the football almost cost the Rams the game. I say he should go under 60.5 rushing yards on Sunday. Look for a split backfield with Sony Michel.”
– Doug Roth (FantasyPros)

Elijah Mitchell: 17.5 Rushing Attempts – Over
“To correlate with how I think the Rams/Niners game will go, I like Elijah Mitchell over 17.5 rushing attempts (-110 at DraftKings). Last week against Green Bay was the first time he stayed under this number in his last seven games (and he barely missed it), finishing with 17 rush attempts. In his two games against the Rams this season, he has 21 and 27 attempts, and I don’t see why he wouldn’t get around 20 again. Deebo Samuel will certainly mix in and get 8-10 rushes himself, but there should be plenty to go around as the Niners attempt to deploy a run-heavy game plan in the NFC Championship.”
– Bart Wheeler (Hail to Fantasy Football)

Joe Mixon: 30.5 Receiving Yards – Over
“My favorite play this weekend takes place in the AFC Championship game as we look to take the over with Joe Mixon’s receiving yards, currently at 30.5. This number has been eclipsed in three of his last four games including a few weeks ago when Mixon racked up 40 yards receiving in the Bengals’ 34-31 win over KC. With a lot of the attention directed on the outside towards wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, I anticipate Cincinnati will take advantage of getting Mixon out in the flats in one-on-one matchups with the Kansas City linebackers. I don’t just like this number for Mixon, I love it!”
– Derek Yoder (Picks By Blaze)

Joe Burrow: 288.5 Passing Yards – Over
“Burrow had 446 passing yards when these teams met a few weeks ago and he’s had at least 340 yards in three of the last four games. I don’t think the Bengals will be able to run the ball, which means it’ll be all on Burrow. I also like the over on his passing attempts.”
– Adam Zdroik (RotoWire)

George Kittle: 4.5 Receptions – Over
“Kittle’s reached at least five receptions in his past five games against the Rams. The 49ers’ current run-first mentality is a tad worrisome, but I think this game turns into one that forces Jimmy Garoppolo to throw late.”
– Kevin English (Draft Sharks)


Thank you to the experts for taking the time to provide their picks and analysis. Please give them a follow on Twitter for more advice throughout the playoffs.


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Against the Spread, Featured, Featured Link, Featured Pros, NFL, Sports Betting