NFL DFS Value Plays: Divisonal Round (2022)
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Only four games on this slate, so finding that diamond in the rough will be difficult, but if you are playing any large field tournaments, you’re going to need to find a way to differentiate yourselves from the field. A couple of the guys I have listed here should have lower ownership, and help you do just that. Let’s get started…
Ryan Tannehill (TEN) vs. CIN | $5,800 DK | $7,300 FD
These two words make Tannehill the best value at quarterback this weekend: Derrick. Henry. The playaction fake means a lot more when it’s Derrick Henry in the backfield than any other running back on the Titans roster. The Bengals rank 24th in pass DVOA, and they gave up the fifth most yards per reception on play action passes this season (per FTNfantasy.com.)
Cam Akers (LAR) @ TB | $5,500 DK | $5,700 FD
Akers is back and he immediately stepped into the lead role last week. He was given 17 carries to Sony Michel‘s 13, and Akers also had two targets to Michel’s zero. The Bucs’ run defense is tough, but they have slipped some over the past few weeks. They rank 12th is rush DVOA, but they were ranked first or second for most of the season, so I’m not afraid to play Akers this week.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) vs. BUF | $5,200 DK | $5,700 FD
This backfield has the potential to frustrate anyone who rosters one of the Chiefs running backs. Jerick McKinnon likely earned himself more touches after his performance last week. Darrell Williams is also still in the mix despite finding himself in the doghouse last week after he fumbled on his first and only attempt.
With all that said, CEH is the most complete back in this offense. He can carry it between the tackles, bounce it outside, and catch passes out of the backfield. Against this stout defense, the Chiefs will likely run a lot of hurry up when they have a favorable matchup, and a versatile running back like Edwards-Helaire makes it easier to do.
Jauan Jennings (SF) @ GB | $3,400 DK | $5,000 FD
On a four game slate, pretty much every player will have some type of ownership. Even the backup quarterbacks will find their way into lineups. Jennings is a player that’s not heavily involved in the 49ers passing game, but he seemingly is aways the one making the critical play when they need it most.
Jennings was the one that caught the go-ahead touchdown versus the Rams in a must-win situation, and all three of his catches last week went for huge first-downs with the 49ers needing to keep a drive alive. The Packers will sell-out to stop Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk will draw some attention, but Jennings could be a sneaky cheap play against a pass defense ranked 15th in DVOA.
Julio Jones (TEN) vs. CIN | $4,700 DK | $5,600 FD
Jones had more targets in the final game of the season (9) than he had in any other game this season and also caught his first touchdown. That bodes well for him in this game suggesting Tannehill has trust in him after Jones spent a good part of the season on the injury list. The Bengals rank 24th in pass DVOA, and with Derrick Henry back to draw in the linebackers, Jones should have no problem getting open over the middle, where he has made his career.
Josiah Deguara (GB) vs. SF | $3,000 DK | $4,900 FD
The 49ers defense has been tough on tight ends all season, but over the last two games they have allowed tight ends to run wild. Tyler Higbee caught two touchdowns against them two weeks ago and Dalton Schultz caught seven passes for 89 yards last week. To add insult to injury, star linebacker Fred Warner is dealing with an ankle injury. Warner may be the best coverage linebacker in the league, and if he can’t run at full speed, Aaron Rodgers will exploit that by getting his tight end one-on-one with Warner.
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