NFL DFS Value Plays: Super Wild Card Round (2022)
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Welcome to the first “Super Wild Card Round,” with five games this weekend and a sixth game on Monday night. There will be a slight format change for those who have read my column all season due to the smaller player pool. First off, you’ll notice I didn’t separate Fanduel and Draftkings into separate sub-headings — both prices will be listed next to each player. And secondly, I usually try to stay under a specific price when picking values, but because the pricing is so tight and the play pool so small, I’m looking at points per dollar to pick my values this week. Good luck this weekend!
Jalen Hurts (PHI) @ TB | $6,100 DK | $7,700 FD
The Bucs defense is tough, ranking 10th in pass DVOA and 12 in rush DVOA, but it’s Hurts’ ability to use his legs that has me interested in him. He played the Bucs in Week 6 this season and had one of his best fantasy games as he ran for two touchdowns.
Matthew Stafford (LAR) vs. ARI | $6,300 DK | $7,600 FD
Stafford has been bad lately, real bad. He has thrown eight interceptions over his last four games after having a total of nine over his previous 14 games. It’s because of his struggles that his price is so low. That, and the Cardinals’ defense is good — ranking fifth in pass DVOA. Lucky for him, the Cardinals are a team he is very familiar with as a division rival — a team that he played twice in the regular season. In those two games, he averaged over 21 points on both sites. The other great thing about rostering Stafford is you know who you’re stacking him with, Mr. Cooper Kupp.
Leonard Fournette (TB) vs. PHI | $5,900 DK | $7,300 FD
Playoff Lenny is back, just in time for the playoffs. He hasn’t officially been cleared to play as I write this, but he is expected to be cleared and starting by Sunday night. There have been four games all season in which Fournette has had nine or fewer carries, three of those four are losses, and the other was a two-point victory in a shoot-out in Week 1 versus the Cowboys. Lenny makes the Bucs better, and he will get a heavy workload against an Eagles team ranked 19th in rush DVOA.
Elijah Mitchell (SF) @ DAL | $5,500 DK | $7,400 FD
Mitchell is listed as questionable, but there is no reason to believe he won’t be ready for Sunday’s matchup with the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys rank 16th in rush DVOA and second in Pass DVOA, meaning the 49ers will likely lean on their strong run game as they’ve done all season. Mitchell has had at least 21 carries in his last five healthy games, and as long as the 49ers can keep it close, he should get 20-plus touches again.
Hunter Renfrow (LV) @ CIN | $6,000 DK | $7,300 FD
The narrative on Renfrow used to be he was a great PPR player and a great value on DraftKings, but not so much on the half PPR Fanduel platform. Well, he caught nine touchdowns this season. That’s more than CeeDee Lamb and the same amount as Tyreek Hill. The even crazier thing is, he is the seventh most expensive wide receiver on FanDuel, but he is 10th on DraftKings! Obviously, that makes him a better value on DraftKings, but his touchdown upside makes him a viable option on FanDual as well.
Christian Kirk (ARI) @ LAR | $5,300 DK | $6,100 FD
In Kirk’s games without DeAndre Hopkins, he averages nearly nine targets a contest. To put that number into perspective, if he were to average nine targets a game for a 17-game season, it would give him 153 targets, which would rank him eighth in the NFL, right behind target monster Keenan Allen. Ram’s shutdown cornerback Jalen Ramsey hasn’t shadowed receivers much this season, and I don’t think Kirk will warrant a shadow. In a game that is expected to be high-scoring, Kirk should see a healthy number of targets and allow him to pay off his salary on both sites.
Zay Jones (LV) @ CIN | $4,200 | $5,300 FD
Zay Jones surprisingly out-targetted Hunter Renfrow over the season’s final five games. Jones saw 42 targets to Renfrow’s 36. The only thing lacking for Jones are the touchdowns…catching only one all season — and it came in Week 1. Zay Jones and Bryan Edwards are the deep threats in this Raider offense, and of the playoff teams only one team gave up more 20-plus yard receptions than did the Bengals (49ers). At $4,200 in a condensed player pool, you will need to have a guy like Zay Jones in your lineups. He will be lower owned and has the potential for one big play to pay off his salary.
Zach Ertz (PHI) @ LAR | $4,700 DK | $5,800 FD
There are a lot of good tight ends in the playoffs this year. In fact, it’s a who’s who of the top-tier tight ends with George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and Rob Gronkowski, along with the second-tier guys like Dalton Schultz and Dawson Knox. With the tight end position being so top-heavy, there is only one tight end I feel falls into the value category and that’s Ertz. Ertz has had a mini-revival in Arizona and falls just below the second-tier tight ends I mentioned above. The only thing keeping him out of the second-tier is his lack of touchdowns — he only has three since joining the Cardinals and two of them came in the same game.
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