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NFL Divisional Round Picks: Against the Spread, Over/Under & Prop Bets (2022 Playoffs)

Jan 20, 2022


 
Last week our featured pundits were 3-1 against the spread, 1-2 on the over/unders, and 2-2 on the prop bets. This is okay, but we’re aiming for more success in what is one of the most fun weekends in all of sports, the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. We’re also hoping this slate will leave you all on the edge of your seat more than last week’s matchups did. Four of those games were blowouts, and those are only entertaining for fans of the winning team or bettors who nailed their wagers. Speaking of bettors, we’ve brought back our most accurate betting experts to share their top picks of the week and help you win some cash! See their favorite choices below.

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View picks from the entire consensus for each Divisional Round playoff game:

CIN @ TEN (-3.5) | SF @ GB (-6.0) | LAR @ TB (-3.0) | BUF @ KC (-1.5)

Q1. Which team are you most confident in against the spread and why?

“The Packers (-6) are my favorite pick against the spread this week, and here’s why. Green Bay enters the Divisional Round healthier than they’ve been all season. With the return of key players on both sides of the ball, this will make it even more challenging on San Francisco as they travel on a short week to the frozen tundra. Speaking of the “frozen tundra,” temps are projected to be in the single digits with wind gusts around 22 MPH. Why does this matter? Well, it gives a distinct advantage to Green Bay as they’re familiar with not only playing in these types of conditions but, more importantly, how it affects their footing in-game as they get in and out of their breaks. Look for Green Bay to start strong by taking control early and covering the spread.”
– Derek Yoder (Picks By Blaze)

Green Bay (-6) is my highest confidence pick for the week. Aaron Rodgers under the lights at Lambeau Field in sub-freezing temps is what playoffs are all about and no one thrives in those conditions more than the Packers. They are not afraid to feature their dynamic RB duo of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon alongside one of the best (if not the best) QB/WR combos in football, Rodgers and Davante Adams. Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers are not just going to be way outside of their comfort zone due to the weather, but also because the Green Bay defense is going to make San Francisco throw the ball plenty. This will be an exciting game and I expect the Packers to be in control of it the whole way.”
– Brian Barker (Barker’s Fantasy Football Analysis)

“For me, it has to be the Green Bay Packers (-6). The 49ers deserve credit for defeating the Cowboys on Sunday, but they were limping to the finish line. I don’t see how the 49ers will keep pace with a well-rested Aaron Rodgers and a Packers team that will be as healthy as they have been all year long, on both sides of the ball.”
– Matt MacCoy (Fantasy Team Advice)

“I really like Buffalo (+1.5). The line opened at +2.5 and has been bet down throughout the week. Wouldn’t be surprised if they close as slight favorites. Buffalo is coming off the NFL’s first perfect game (scoring a TD on every single drive), and that was against a top-five defense! Kansas City is great at home, but Josh Allen is on another level right now. I expect the Bills to win outright.”
– Nick Zylak (Fantasy Football Advice)

“The Packers are rested, but they haven’t played a real game in three weeks. I think they may have some rust and they’ve also had trouble against teams that could run on them. The 49ers (+6) have the ground game to churn the clock and keep this game close, if not pull the upset.”
– Adam Zdroik (RotoWire)

View more picks against the spread from dozens of experts >>

Q2. Which matchup are you most confident in picking the over/under and why?

LAR at TB: 48.5 – Over
“If you’re a fan of hitting ‘overs’ then look no further than the Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With the line sitting at 48.5 points, I see this matchup as an offensive shootout. Both these teams have eclipsed this total over 10 times each this season, including their week-three matchup where LA won 34-24. Anytime I can get Tom Brady and Matt Stafford on the field against each other, you better believe I’ll be betting the over. Sit back, relax, and watch the points roll in!”
– Derek Yoder (Picks By Blaze)

BUF at KC: 54.5 – Over
“I like the Bills @ Chiefs to go over 54.5 points. Something I look for in high-scoring games is a close spread and elite QBs. Well … we’ve got a 1.5-point spread and a matchup between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes! These teams scored 47 and 42 points respectively last week, and there’s simply no way either team can sit on a lead. Whoever gets up will need to remain aggressive, and both are explosive enough to score quickly if they get down. Can you tell how excited I am for this game?”
– Nick Zylak (Fantasy Football Advice)

LAR at TB: 48.5 – Under
“I like the ‘under’ on 48.5 in the Los Angeles/Tampa Bay game. Certainly, both offenses have high upside, but I came away more impressed with both teams’ defenses than their offenses. The Eagles could muster very little against the Bucs and the Cardinals could not get out of their own way against the Rams. I expect this game to be much more strategic and low-scoring than most.”
– Matt MacCoy (Fantasy Team Advice)

LAR at TB: 48.5 – Over
“I think the winner of the Rams at Bucs game will score at least 30 points, which means if the loser gets to 20 or so, that’ll be enough for the over to hit. There’s a chance the Rams’ defense repeats what it just did against the Cardinals, but a short week combined with cross-country travel could be a problem in stopping Tom Brady and the Bucs.”
– Adam Zdroik (RotoWire)

View full set of consensus Over/Under game picks here >>

Q3. What is your single favorite prop bet for this weekend’s games and why?

Mike Evans: Scoring a Touchdown
“I originally picked Ja’Marr Chase over 78.5 receiving yards, before swapping to Aaron Jones scoring a TD at EVEN money. But then I saw Mike Evans +110 to score and I just had to take it! Evans scored a TD in 12/20 games in 2020 (15 total scores) and is at 10/17 so far this season (15 total scores). That’s a 59.5% TD rate over the last two seasons and a total of 30 TDs over 37 games! Also, the Bucs had Antonio Brown for a portion of those games and Godwin for most of them! Tom Brady looks at exactly two players when he gets to the end zone (which he does often), so neither of them should be plus money to score. Especially in a game where they won’t be able to sit on a lead.”
– Nick Zylak (Fantasy Football Advice)

Elijah Mitchell: 75.5 Rushing Yards – Over
“The Packers are one of the worst teams in the league in terms of rush defense DVOA and it wouldn’t be surprising if that came up against the 49ers. That’s why I’m taking the over on Elijah Mitchell rushing yards. He’s had at least 21 carries in each of the last six games, hitting at least 85 yards in five of those.”
– Adam Zdroik (RotoWire)

Cincinnati Bengals: 21.5 Total Points – Over
“After hitting the team total prop last week with Pittsburgh, we go back to it again with Cincinnati this time. The Bengals come into the Divisional Round riding a wave of momentum offensively. Quarterback Joe Burrow is clicking on all cylinders, and that’s scary for any team, especially a team like Tennessee, who defensively has given up the second-most points to wide receivers this season. As I evaluated the Bengals’ offense, it’s clear they’re moving the ball at will, and I don’t see this trend stopping. Give me the Bengals’ team total over 21.5 points all day!”
– Derek Yoder (Picks By Blaze)

A.J. Dillon: Scoring a Touchdown
“My favorite prop bet for this week’s game is A.J. Dillon scoring a TD +135. GB is going to need to run the ball to beat SF and Matt LaFleur has plenty of confidence in Dillon. Jones will be the primary back, but Dillon actually has one more TD than Jones this season. This is going to be a game where Dillon will be utilized more, have a couple of shots at the end zone, and will capitalize on at least one of those attempts.”
– Brian Barker (Barker’s Fantasy Football Analysis)

Joe Burrow: 276.5 Passing Yards – Over
“The Tennessee Titans have been one of the best teams in the league in limiting opposing running backs. I don’t see the Bengals finding much success on the ground. Joe Burrow will have to throw the ball a ton on Saturday in order to keep up. I love the ‘over’ on his passing yards set at 276.5.”
– Matt MacCoy (Fantasy Team Advice)

View all major prop bets for each player and team >> 


Thank you to the experts for taking the time to provide their picks and analysis. Please give them a follow on Twitter for more advice throughout the playoffs.


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