I’ve already covered hitters to target, hitters to avoid, and pitchers to target. Now I’m going to cover ten pitchers who I believe are being over-drafted.
Before we dive in, keep in mind that an 0WAR fantasy pitcher had a 3.02 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 123 K’s, 9 W’s, and 8 SVs last season. When I found out, I was shocked that the thresholds for ERA and WHIP were so low; 11 of 39 qualified starting pitchers had a lower ERA, and six had lower WHIPs. That’s when I realized Relief Aces are the biggest sleepers this season, and middle of the fantasy rotation starters are the biggest busts.
Invest in the Max Scherzer’s (SP – NYM) and Brandon Woodruff’s (SP – MIL) of the world and skip out on these guys. I’ve crunched the numbers so you don’t have to.
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Sandy Alcantara (SP – MIA) (ADP – 36)
Managers are drafting Sandy Alcantara at the third and fourth round turn despite finishing as the 88th-most valuable player last season (34th most valuable pitcher). ZIPS projects a 3.49 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, but the market is pricing in a sub 2.75 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP. Managers love Alcantara’s inning-eating ability and top-of-the-line fastball, but playing for a Marlins team whose best hitter is Avisail Garcia (OF – MIA) doesn’t bode well for his win total. Another bearish factor for Alcantara is the Universal DH; no more easy outs at the bottom of the line-up. He lacks the ceiling of Robbie Ray (SP – SEA), Liam Hendriks (RP – CWS), and Kevin Gausman (SP – SF), who managers are drafting after him. Finally, Alcantara needs to improve on his career-best 3.19 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, but lacks the underlying metrics or track record to forecast that improvement to return value at his ADP.
Jack Flaherty (SP – STL) (ADP – 56)
Injury concerns have me sidelining Jack Flaherty in the fifth round; he missed over half of last season with oblique and shoulder strains, and he’s thrown 119 innings in the past two seasons combined. Flaherty will need ~170 IP to return value at his ADP; the market is pricing in a 2021-Charlie-Morton-type season. The Universal DH will hurt Flaherty, and his 3.96 xFIP vs. 3.22 ERA last season indicates potential regression. Flaherty also has an extremely low BABIP (career .252 in 487 innings), ripe for negative regression. I’d rather have Joe Musgrove (SP – SD) 20 picks later.
Jose Berrios (SP – TOR) (ADP – 65)
Jose Berrios is a guy I like better in real-life than in fantasy. Last year he set career-lows in ERA and WHIP and a career-high in strikeouts, but he still has to improve to return value at this ADP. Berrios’ career 4.04 ERA and 1.22 WHIP mean he will likely hurt your ratios. Fantasy managers may not realize a mid-3’s ERA, and 1.1X WHIP can wipe out a lot of value that 200+ K’s and 15 W’s give you. Managers are drafting Max Fried (SP – ATL) after Berrios, but ZIPS projects a 3.84 ERA and 1.16 WHIP for Berrios and a 3.24 ERA and 1.12 WHIP for Fried. Therefore, I’d rather have Fried. I believe Berrios doesn’t have the ceiling to warrant going in the sixth round.
Dylan Cease (SP – CWS) (ADP – 77)
Dylan Cease reminds me of a pre-2021 Robbie Ray; he had the second-highest K% among qualified pitchers, better than Gerrit Cole (SP – NYY), Max Scherzer, or Ray, but Cease was also second-worst in BB%. That’s why he averaged just 5 1/3 IP per start, which is bearish for his win totals. Despite the strikeouts, Cease finished 175th on the player rater (78th best pitcher), so he has to be better in 2022 to return value at this ADP. ZIPS projects a 3.88 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, similar to his 2021 line, and will be a liability for manager’s ratios. He’s going ahead of guys like Charlie Morton (SP – ATL), Emmanuel Clase (SP – CLE), and Ryan Pressly (RP – HOU), who all finished in the top-25 of pitchers last season. The strikeouts are tempting, and if you draft guys like deGrom and Scherzer, you may have low enough ratios to make Cease palatable, but I want to see him prove that he can be a great pitcher before I draft him this high.
Frankie Montas (SP – OAK) (ADP – 80)
Frankie Montas is another guy who had a great 2021 (117th overall, 48th best pitcher) but needs to get better in 2022 to return value for drafters. He’s got a career 3.86 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, which is a liability but ZIPS projects improvement (3.54 ERA and 1.19 WHIP). Unfortunately, Montas has to do even better than that; he needs to reproduce his 2019 ratios to be worth it at this ADP (almost impossible considering he had a 3.47 xFIP vs. 2.63 ERA that season). Managers are overbuying guys like Montas, who offer strikeouts but middling ratios this draft season. My strategy is to draft two or more elite starters in the first five rounds and fill out the rest of my staff with closers, high ceiling picks, and relief aces. The A’s will probably trade Montas before the start of the season, which is bearish because Oakland is one of the best pitchers parks in the show.
Yu Darvish (SP – SD) (ADP – 88)
Yu Darvish was one of the best pitchers in the shortened 2020 season, and I think managers are still giving him credit for that. He was 223rd overall on the player rater last season, and his velocity fell 1.5 MPH year-over-year. ZIPS projects a 3.87 ERA and 1.17 WHIP; that’s not going to cut it for managers spending a top-100 pick on Darvish. He was terrible on the road (5.54 ERA in 13 starts) and averaged just 5 1/3 IP per start in 2021 (bearish for win totals). I’ve repeatedly said it, but the strikeouts aren’t worth the ratios. Darvish is going a handful of picks ahead of Bryan Reynolds (OF – PIT), but I’d rather have Reynolds. He’s got a career 3.56 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, but as he gets further and further away from his prime, I expect those numbers to keep rising; if you ignore 2020, he hasn’t had an ERA under 3.50 since 2016.
Shane McClanahan (SP – TB) (ADP – 101)
Shane McClanahan will probably start for the Rays on Opening Day, but he’s not someone I want to draft on my team. The young lefty averaged just 4 2/3 IP per start last year, reflecting the Rays’ commitment to their bullpen; he was the 99th-best pitcher in fantasy (211th overall) and threw 123 innings. It’s unlikely that the Rays will let him throw more than 160 innings because conventional wisdom dictates a jump of 30+ IP year over year leads to an increased chance of injury, which further limits his upside. ZIPS projects a 3.86 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP – a liability for manager’s ratios. If he falls a couple of rounds, I might scoop him up, but at pick 101, I’d rather have Justin Verlander (SP – HOU), Carlos Rodon (SP – CWS), Jesse Winker (OF – CIN), or Bobby Witt Jr. (SS – KC).
Aroldis Chapman (RP – NYY) (ADP – 95)
I’m avoiding Aroldis Chapman, who struggled with his command last season and posted the highest BB% of his career. He’s suffered elbow and knee injuries over the past few seasons, and I worry that they will become chronic injuries. As someone who had shares of Marcell Ozuna (LF – ATL) and Trevor Bauer (SP – LAD) last season, I’m also concerned that Chapman’s off-the-field behavior could limit his workload in unforeseen ways. The Yankees demoted him when he struggled last summer and have plenty of guys who fit the closers mold, so he doesn’t even have the same job security as the other top closers. ZIPS projects a 2.98 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, a WHIP liability. I’m targeting guys like Jordan Romano (RP – TOR) and Giovanny Gallegos (RP – STL), drafted rounds after Chapman.
Framber Valdez (SP – HOU) (ADP – 127)
ZIPS projects Framber Valdez to have a 4.00 ERA and 1.34 WHIP; both of those numbers would be disastrous for your ratios. It’s hard to imagine Valdez improving his ERA year over year; in fact, I believe he is due for negative regression. Valdez was 177th on the player rater last season, so duplicating his 2021 ratios (which were fantastic) wouldn’t even be enough to provide managers value; he has to do better. Additionally, the Astros may cap him around 170 IP because he threw 135 innings in 2021; he doesn’t have a gaudy K%, so he needs to eat innings to rack up strikeouts. I believe his best category will be wins, but wins are such a crapshoot that I’d rather draft Adam Wainwright (SP – STL) 40 picks later.
Ian Anderson (SP – ATL) (ADP – 131)
Ian Anderson doesn’t have the ceiling I’m looking for in the middle rounds. ZIPS projects a 3.74 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP, which is fine in real life but well above the 3.02 ERA and 1.07 WHIP that separates the fantasy assets from the fantasy liabilities. His Statcast is Savoy Blue, and his xFIP was nearly 40 points higher than his ERA, pointing to negative regression in that category. The Universal DH will add another challenge to keep his ratios down. I’m not sure I want to take the risk; he walks way too many batters and has to improve a lot to return value at this ADP.
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