Well, we’ve officially embarked on a journey of rampant speculation ahead of the 2022 season. Here is my list of the ten players whose offseason decisions will impact this year’s fantasy season unlike any other.
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No player embodies the phrase “rampant speculation” quite like Rodgers. Wherever he ends up, he’ll likely boost the value of that team’s receivers. If he leaves Green Bay and Davante Adams stays, Adams would move from my WR2 with a bullet to somewhere around WR5-7. If Rodgers goes to Denver, I can get my conductor suit back on another go on the Courtland Sutton hype train that tragically derailed last season. If Rodgers is in Pittsburgh, you could make the case for Diontae Johnson being drafted as the WR2.
Cordarrelle Patterson (WR,RB – ATL)
“Some things just go better together and probably always will/
Like a cup of coffee and a sunrise, Sunday drives and time to kill.”-Luke Combs
-TJ Horgan
The Atlanta Falcons and Cordarrelle Patterson are a marriage nobody wants to see end. Actually, fans of 31 teams probably do because of how explosive Patterson looked last season. If Patterson returns to Atlanta, he’ll likely have every chance to once again lead the Falcons’ backfield behind the thunderous lead-blocking of fullback Keith Smith. Patterson is a top-20 RB for me if he’s back in ATL.
Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR)
McCaffrey’s 2021 season left a bad taste in my mouth. And I think it left one in his, too, frankly. CMC is a generational talent and when he’s on the field, he’s capable of single-handedly carrying you to fantasy glory. However, I’ve heard some people go as far as saying he’s on their “do not draft” list already because they have no confidence in his health. This offseason is a huge one for McCaffrey. If he’s able to take part in most preseason activities and enter week one without even a hint of an injury designation, I wouldn’t fault you for taking CMC with the second overall pick. However, if health concerns linger through September, you’ll be faced with a massive gamble in drafts.
Death, taxes, and no updates on Calvin Ridley. Neither the Falcons nor Ridley have uttered a word about what the future may hold. He took a mental health leave of absence last year and right now we can’t even say for sure he’ll ever play NFL football again. Far beyond speculation of fantasy value, the importance of mental health cannot be overstated. Calvin Ridley is an exceptionally talented player and I don’t just speak for myself in saying I would love to see him play again.
Robinson was mostly healthy in 2021 and finished as the WR86. He’s a free agent and will be 29 heading into this season. It’s not difficult to see Robinson thriving in more than a handful of NFL offenses and where he winds up could massively swing his fantasy value. Well, there’s really nowhere to go but up, but if he winds up with a good quarterback in, say, Atlanta, Buffalo, Kansas City, or Los Angeles (Chargers, more likely) his fantasy stock could rise quite a bit.
I won’t be speculating on anything here, but it feels necessary to add Watson to this list. He’s a young, talented quarterback whose availability will wind up somewhere between never plays football again and starting QB for a team in week one.
Conner finished as the RB5 in 2021 thanks to 18 total touchdowns. His fantasy value ahead of the 2022 season depends entirely on where he ends up. Conner looked good, but it’s not a stretch to say his value will greatly depend on volume. Touchdowns are so, so unpredictable and I find myself hesitant to draft Conner in my early mock drafts.
Similar to Davante Adams, Chris Godwin is an immensely talented wide receiver who’s proven he can excel in the right offense. Hey, he posted 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns with Jameis Winston throwing him the football. That being said, Winston isn’t actually an awful option for someone to throw your fantasy WRs the ball because of how willing he is to chuck and pray. The best case scenario for Godwin might just be a reunion with Winston, either in New Orleans or if Winston returns to Tampa Bay. The worst case for Godwin would be somewhere such as Philadelphia, where he’s on a run-heavy offense with other solid receiving weapons.
Peanut butter and jelly, copy and paste, bread and butter, Jim and Pam, New England Patriots receivers, and slant routes. I’ll happily join the camp of people calling their shot of Michael Thomas to the Patriots, and if it happens, watch out, because his fantasy value will skyrocket. I think the likelihood of this happening is lower than we’d like to think, mainly because Jakobi Meyers proved himself to be a more-than-capable slot receiver in 2021. Either way, if Michael Thomas ends up on a team lacking a true security blanket receiving option, I’ll be intrigued.
Hayden Hurst is going to make some team very happy in 2022. His market price will likely be lower than it should after catching just 82 passes through two seasons with the Atlanta Falcons. He’ll be 29 heading into this season, with plenty of gas left in the tank. Hurst, here, represents a player archetype. Hurst, Zach Ertz, Rob Gronkowski, C.J. Uzomah, Eric Ebron, Gerald Everett, Robert Tonyan, Mike Gesicki, Evan Engram, and another handful of free agent tight ends are all veterans who’ve proven capable of commanding a healthy target share. To me, volume trumps talent with this group. If they end up with a TE-needy team, it’ll boost their value. However, if they end up on a team already featuring a TE1 such as Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit, Cleveland, etc they’ll fall right back into the abyss of little fantasy-relevant barring an injury.
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TJ Horgan is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from TJ, check out his archive and follow him @tjhorgantv.
