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Analyzing CBS’s ADP for Undervalued Players to Target (Fantasy Baseball 2022)

Analyzing CBS’s ADP for Undervalued Players to Target (Fantasy Baseball 2022)

Searching for undervalued players is as enjoyable as it is rewarding. When drafting, there’s no better feeling than getting your guy two or three rounds later than expected. It creates an enormous amount of value for your team and makes for a gratifying experience. Such players aren’t that hard to find either. Discovering the undervalued just takes a bit of digging.

While draft trends vary site to site, there are always a few players who stand out as values. Despite playing by nearly identical rules, fantasy managers tend to follow their individual site’s ADP, which can create great value for a select few. The key is to observe who may be falling on your site in relation to others.

I also wrote about the opposite trend here, where in CBS Sports leagues, managers were overvaluing certain players. I prefer writing about the undervalued, however, as singing a player’s praises is always more pleasant than discussing faults.

Without further ado, here are five guys in the top 100 who are being drafted later than they should be in CBS Sports leagues. Their ADP is at least a few rounds earlier on other top sites, and the FantasyPros ECR has them ranked much higher as well. Considering they are undervalued on CBS, you can wait on them a bit, but I don’t wait too long. If you can select them a round earlier than their undervalued CBS ADP, you’re still receiving a great value even if fellow CBS Sports managers don’t think so.

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Max Scherzer (SP – NYM)

CBS ADP: 27
Consensus ADP: 17
FantasyPros ECR: 17

Mad Max isn’t falling excessively far, but considering that he is being selected after nearly every fantasy expert, publication, and website has him projected, he is likely to provide some solid value in CBS leagues.

The third-place finisher in last year’s NL Cy Young voting was practically flawless in the second half of the season and was one of the few pitchers who actually improved after the “sticky stuff” ban. Now a part of the Mets organization, Scherzer loses little if any value. With a revamped lineup and a reliable back end of the bullpen, there’s little doubt Scherzer could flirt with 17 wins again and reach 250 strikeouts. His age is slightly concerning, but the Mets don’t seem to mind, judging by the million-plus they are willing to pay him per game.

Few players can match the certainty of Scherzer, and waiting for the late third round to garner his services is absurd. Many starting pitchers seem to be devalued in CBS Sports leagues, so look to draft the new co-ace of Queens near the end of the second round and hope he lasts that long.

Robbie Ray (SP – SEA)

CBS ADP: 72
Consensus ADP: 46
FantasyPros ECR: 51

CBS managers are not very impressed by last year’s top arms. Ray has risen from the 83rd to 72nd ADP over the last few days, but he’s still being drafted considerably later than on other sites. ECR also has him pegged in the fifth round, so you should be able to score a bargain for the former Blue Jay.

While some of Ray’s advanced numbers do point toward regression, I would argue that a trip to the great Northwest will help offset any deterrents. The Mariners’ ballpark ranks as one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league. Plus, the offenses he will be facing most often are hardly as potent as those of the AL East. And as if that wasn’t enough, while the AL East has some of the most hitter-friendly parks, the AL West is full of pitcher’s havens.

Ray won’t be able to strand 90 percent of baserunners again, but with a 32 percent K rate (something he has maintained for most of his career), his newfound control, a strong bullpen, and a great pitcher’s environment, Ray looks like a terrific value in the eighth round. No way should you wait that long to obtain his services though. Target the Mariners’ new ace at the end of the sixth round when playing in CBS Sports leagues. Your competitors will think you overpaid, but you’ll be the one laughing when it’s all said and done.

Eloy Jimenez (OF – CHW)

CBS ADP: 79
Consensus ADP: 61
FantasyPros ECR: 57

Jimenez was hurt last year, and while he had a fantastic August, he was awful in September and October. With a full offseason to get right, it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see him return to his mashing ways. In CBS leagues, however, he is going near the ninth round, which is ridiculous.

It just takes one look at the projections to see that the White Sox star is far more deserving of an earlier selection: 35 homers, 100+ RBIs, and a .275-.280 average should not be the 79th overall pick. And those numbers are just an average projection; his ceiling is much higher.

Many inexperienced fantasy players place too much stock in last year’s numbers. Looking at the big picture, it’s obvious that Jimenez should be selected closer to the sixth round (10-team league), or in the seventh if you’re feeling lucky.

Tyler O’Neill (OF – STL)

CBS ADP: 86
Consensus ADP: 65
FantasyPros ECR: 53

While some managers put too much weight on last year’s production, others are quick to dismiss it as just a single year of success – and that’s exactly what’s happening with Mr. O’Neill. I drafted O’Neill last year thinking he was a decent sleeper, and after he struggled out of the gate (4 for 33 with one homer), I dropped him. He hit two home runs the next day, and every home run he hit or base he stole after that was a thorn in my side. I won’t make the same mistake twice and am targeting him in all of my leagues.

O’Neill was a five-tool monster last year with the Statcast numbers to back it up. He strikes out a lot, but for nearly every other metric, he places within the top 10 percent of the league. Most impressive are his 98th percentile sprint speed, 97th percentile barrel rate, 96th percentile xSLG, and 94th percentile average exit velocity.

Not that you need any of those numbers to validate his production if you simply watch him perform. He’s built like an NFL safety and plays a bit like one too. There isn’t much he can’t do on the baseball field, and it comes as little surprise considering that his father was a champion bodybuilder. No doubt some of his focus and discipline have rubbed off on the 26-year-old.

O’Neill has a good chance at 35 homers and 15 steals again, plus his batting average should be favorable as well. (He hit .286 last year.) The gold medalist from Canada will likely be sandwiched between Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, making him far too valuable to last until 86th overall. Target O’Neill in the seventh round, which is early on CBS but not anywhere else.

Raisel Iglesias (RP – LAA)

CBS ADP: 92
Consensus ADP: 73
FantasyPros ECR: 74

I never like to draft closers early. In standard leagues where holds don’t count, there is just so much volatility at the position. It seems a new closer is popping up almost daily. That said, there are a few top arms who have solidified their status as the best in the game and are as near a sure thing as you can get. Iglesias is one of those guys.

He’s been fairly consistent since becoming a full-time closer over five years ago. The former Red did experience a few ups and downs in 2019, but since then he has been lights-out (just as he was in 2016-2018). Iglesias produces an otherworldly strikeout-to-walk ratio, limits hard contact, and is as durable as they come. Plus, with the Angels’ roster fully healthy, Iglesias is a candidate to reach 40 saves. A 2.60 ERA, a WHIP under 1.00, 100 K’s, and 40 saves are overwhelmingly valuable at 90th overall.

He goes a few rounds earlier on other sites, so you can wait a bit for Iglesias, but I wouldn’t wait until round 10, or else some other savvy manager will gobble him up.

Make sure to check out Analyzing CBS’s ADP for Overvalued Players to Avoid

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Austin Lowell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Austin, check out his archive.

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