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NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Monday (3/28)

Mar 28, 2022
Nikola Jokic

To say the finish line is in sight is a drastic understatement. There are less than two weeks remaining in the regular season, with this being the second to last Monday. It’s been a heck of a ride to get to this point, but you better believe the chaos level will get to 100 with so many teams falling out of the running. We have Oklahoma City and Portland facing off here, and most NBA people don’t have a read on who will play in that game!

We’re kicking off this week with a nine-game card. That’s a normal amount for DFS, and it has us with a massive player pool. The injury report is out of control, too, and that will remain the case for these final two weeks. With that in mind, let’s kick things off with the schedule and odds!

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Schedule and Odds

  • ORL at CLE (CLE -10) O/U: 215
  • ATL at IND (ATL -7) O/U: 235
  • DEN at CHA (DEN -3.5) O/U: 232
  • SAC at MIA (MIA -13.5) O/U: 219
  • CHI at NYK (CHI -4.5) O/U: 223
  • BOS at TOR (TOR -3.5) O/U: 218
  • SAS at HOU (SAS -6) O/U: 237
  • GSW at MEM (MEM -11) O/U: 223.5
  • POR vs. OKC (OKC -2) O/U: 222

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros >>

Injury Report

Core Plays

Jakob Poeltl (C – SAS): $6,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
This pricing makes no sense. Poeltl has been playing at an $8K level for most of the season, averaging 34 DraftKings points per game. That alone makes this pricing tough to understand, especially since he has the best possible matchup. Houston surrenders the most fantasy points to opposing centers, with Poeltl averaging 39 DK points per game in their three matchups this season.

Jalen Smith (PF/C – IND): $5,900 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel
The Pacers stumbled into Smith at the trade deadline, and it looks like he’s their go-to big man now. Myles Turner, Goga Bitadze, and Isaiah Jackson are all nicked up right now, leaving Smith with a starting role. That’s led to Jalen scoring at least 28 DraftKings points in 11 of his last 13 games, playing 30 minutes in his most recent outing. The matchup with Atlanta is astounding, too, with the Hawks ranked 23rd in points allowed and 26th in defensive efficiency.

Theo Maledon (PG – OKC): $4,500 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
This is the worst mispricing on this slate. Oklahoma City is missing most of their roster, leaving Maledon with the starting point guard job. He’s played 32 minutes in back-to-back games in this expanded role, averaging 38 DK points per game. It’s no surprise since he’s stepping into the SGA role, making him impossible to fade below $5K. Not to mention, Portland ranks 28th in points allowed and 29th in defensive efficiency.

Cash Game Considerations

Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $12,200 DraftKings, $10,900 FanDuel
Here we are again. The big man continues to ravage through the NBA, leading the league with 61 DK points per game. He’s also scored at least 41 fantasy points in all but one game this season! Getting to face Charlotte is the icing on the cake, though, with the Hornets ranked third in pace and 28th in points allowed. In their one matchup earlier this season, The Joker collected 29 points, 21 rebounds, and five assists.

Dejounte Murray (PG – SAS): $11,000 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
The Rockets are the best matchup in fantasy. Houston ranks second in pace and dead-last in defensive efficiency. That’s a dream for an opponent, especially a triple-double machine like Dejounte. Murray is averaging over 58 fantasy points per game in their three matchups this season!

Jimmy Butler (S/PF – MIA): $8,300 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
To say the Heat need a win here would be a drastic understatement. They had a meltdown two games ago against a shorthanded Warriors team and then suffered a fourth-quarter collapse against the New York Knicks in their most recent outing. You know Jimmy will be motivated after that, scoring at least 36 fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games. That should be his floor in this matchup, with Sacramento sitting 28th in defensive efficiency and 29th in points allowed.

GPP Targets

Kevin Porter Jr (PG – HOU): $6,200 DraftKings, $5,600 FanDuel
Porter has been playmaking for the Rockets for two months now, and it’s hard to understand why he’s just $6K. He’s scored at least 25 DK points in 22 of his last 26 games, averaging nearly 35 DK points per game in that span. We certainly don’t mind that he squares up with the Spurs either, with San Antonio sitting third in pace and 24th in points allowed.

Mitchell Robinson (C – NYK): $5,500 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel
This guy can be tough to trust, but that’s why he’s in the GPP section. Mitch-Rob has shown a 50-point upside multiple times over the last month, stepping up in the absence of Nerlens Noel. He’s also averaging 30 DK points per game in that same span, a brilliant total from a sub-$6K player. It’s not like Chicago is scary either, with the Bulls owning a 22nd OPRK against opposing centers.

P.J. Washington (PF/C – CHA): $5,000 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel
Washington has always been talented, but it’s always come down to his minutes. We’ve finally seen an increase there recently, with PJ playing at least 27 minutes in 16 of his last 17 games. That has led to Washington averaging 27 DK points per game in that span. Good luck finding that from another $5K player, especially since he dropped 37.3 DK points in this matchup earlier this season.

Value Plays

Terry Taylor (PF – IND): $4,200 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel
We already talked about how shorthanded Indiana’s frontcourt is right now, leaving Taylor with the most prominent role of his career. In fact, TT has played at least 28 minutes in three straight outings, scoring at least 23 DK points in three of his last four games. That’s all you can ask for from a $4,200 player, especially with the Hawks surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing forwards.

Ben McLemore (SG – POR): $4,000 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel
To say Portland’s roster is in shambles would be an understatement. They traded CJ McCollum, Norman Powell, and Robert Covington while losing Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, Anfernee Simons, Josh Hart, and Trendon Watford to injury. That means McLemore is one of the only people left, guaranteeing him for 30 minutes and 15-20 shots. As long as that’s the case, Benny should be $1,000 more. We also don’t mind that OKC owns a 30th OPRK against opposing wings this season.

Daniel Theis (PF/C – BOS): $3,700 DraftKings, $3,800 FanDuel
None of the statistics will make Theis look like a good play. This dude has proven to be a $6K player in a starting role in the past, but he’s been relegated to a bench role in Boston. The good news is that Robert Williams and Al Horford are expected to sit here, likely leading to a start for Theis. If that’s the case, he’s a good bet for a double-double, which would make him one of the best values out there south of $4,000.

Advantageous Pricing

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

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