As fantasy football analysts, we preach to find players at a value when drafting. Find that late-round gem that can set the tone for your season. Know when a player’s value is inflated and unlikely to live up to expectations. Spending a high-round draft pick on a player that doesn’t pan out can sink your ship. Here are a few players I believe will fall into that category for the 2022 season.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL) ECR: 35 (RB17)
Ezekiel Elliott has become a polarizing topic among fantasy football enthusiasts these past two seasons. After a 2020 campaign that saw him underperform expectations, finishing the season as the overall PPR RB9, questions arose about Elliott’s drive to play football at an elite level. It’s never a good look when an athlete receives a considerable pay raise and fails to deliver in year one, just as he did, posting a career-low in rushing yards (979) and tying his career-low in rushing touchdowns (6). Some of the lack of production can be attributed to the absence of quarterback Dak Prescott after a brutal ankle injury ended his season, which is why expectations were that he would return to dominance this past season.
2021 indeed saw a better version of him than we saw in 2020. Elliott finished the season as the overall PPR RB7 but did notch a career-low in rushing attempts (237) despite playing in all 17 games. However, his ten rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns bailed out his season from a fantasy standpoint. A big part of the downturn in opportunities for Zeke was the emergence of third-year running back Tony Pollard as a legitimate threat in the Dallas Cowboys backfield. Pollard saw usage in 2020, which undoubtedly affected Elliott, but 2021 was a different beast. It was clear that offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was using Pollard more directly, giving him more high-value opportunities. When this past season was all said and done, Pollard finished as the overall PPR RB28 without ever being given more than a 42-percent snap share and missing two games.
What does it all mean? Regarding Ezekiel Elliott, I am concerned that we will continue to see Pollard get more love from Kellen Moore, eating into his opportunities, possibly more so than in 2021. While he is currently sitting at RB17 in the FantasyPros Draft Rankings for 2022, I expect that to change as the season draws closer. Given the strong possibility of an ever-growing role for Pollard and a likely continued reduction in opportunity for Elliott, you’d be wise to stay away from him unless his ADP stays in the backend RB2 to high-end RB3 range.
D.J. Moore (WR – CAR) ECR: 45 (WR20)
The Carolina Panthers have been somewhat of an enigma so far this offseason. A team that showed it desperately needed improvement in many areas, especially the quarterback position, has been relatively quiet in 2022. The only significant signings on the offensive side of the ball have been wide receiver Rashard Higgins and running back D’Onta Foreman. This team seems to be content rolling out Sam Darnold again in 2022 if they cannot find another option, and there are few viable ones left. The most likely scenarios right now appear to be the front office trading for Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield, head coach Matt Rhule rolling out Sam Darnold, or the team selecting a quarterback with the sixth overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. Unfortunately, none of these scenarios bode well for wide receiver D.J. Moore.
Moore, who recently signed a contract extension with the team through 2025, is undeniably talented. Despite having Cam Newton and Sam Darnold as his quarterbacks, he has finished three of his four seasons as a PPR WR2. In 2021, most of Moore’s production came in the first four games. From Week 5 on, Moore was the overall PPR WR28. He benefited heavily from Darnold’s hot start and a season-ending injury to running back Christian McCaffrey early on. Once the wheels fell off, so did Moore’s production.
Whether it’s Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, or a rookie quarterback behind center in 2022, D.J. Moore is unlikely to live up to this current FantasyPros draft ranking of WR20. However, with the addition of Higgins, the expected increase in second-year wide receiver Terrace Marshall‘s involvement in the offense, and the overall dysfunction in Carolina, his ceiling will be much closer to the WR28 range. As a result, Moore isn’t worth rostering unless the team does something drastic between now and the beginning of the season unless his draft stock drops considerably.
George Kittle (TE – SF) ECR: 26 (TE3)
San Francisco is another team heading into the upcoming NFL draft with looming questions. The most important question, who will be behind center to start the 2022 campaign, appears to be nearing an answer. With Jimmy Garoppolo choosing to rehab his surgically repaired shoulder away from the team and trade rumors swirling, second-year quarterback Trey Lance is in line to be the starter come September. Lance, who San Francisco traded up to the third round in last year’s draft to acquire, was notably one of the rawest prospects at the position in 2021. While it cannot be debated that George Kittle is an elite-level talent at tight end, this is a scenario where the situation may outweigh talent, at least for the 2022 season.
In 2021, despite missing four games due to injury, Kittle managed to finish the season as the overall PPR TE4. We all know how thin the tight end talent pool is in fantasy football. At four, the separation between the overall PPR TE1, Mark Andrews, and Kittle were 103.1 PPR fantasy points. Kittle did have an opportunity to work with Lance in Week 4, where he managed four catches on 11 targets for 40 yards. While it is admittedly a minimal sample size, they didn’t gel in that first encounter. It should also be noted Kittle’s 2021 value was propped up big time by a few massive games. He had six contests where he couldn’t manage double-digit fantasy point output.
I am not saying Kittle will be fantasy irrelevant in 2022. However, the odds are that he finishes the 2022 season as a TE1, barring significant injury. With his current ECR of TE3, it will be hard to justify drafting him early. Dalton Schultz, Pat Freiermuth, and Zach Ertz are primed to jump Kittle.
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