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Before we dive into my Dynasty Must-Have Quarterbacks, let me first define what a “must-have” quarterback is in the first place. Top-tier quarterbacks like Josh Allen (QB – BUF) or Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) are not “must-haves” because you’ll have to draft them too early in a startup or give up too much in a trade to acquire them. High-upside/low-floor quarterbacks, like Zach Wilson (QB – NYJ) and Jameis Winston (QB – NO), don’t qualify under my criteria. Yes, they are fairly cheap to acquire, but they also have a very low floor and could be completely unusable soon.
The sweet spot for a must-have quarterback is those quarterbacks being ranked at the back of the QB1 tier or just on the outside of QB1 territory that could make that leap into the elite if a few things break right. Josh Allen made that leap two seasons ago, going from back-end QB1 to arguably the QB1.
Now that we have defined it, here are my 2022 Dynasty Must-Have Quarterbacks…
Tagovailoa gets a lot of criticism because he doesn’t push the ball down the field. He has been called “check-down Charlie” through his first few seasons; however, some things lead me to believe that this could be his breakout season for both real life and fantasy.
First, let’s take a look at his deep passing stats. Yes, he had a low number of attempts, 26 of them, which accounted for a mere 6.7 percent of his total attempts. For comparison’s sake, the league average is about 10 percent, with Russell Wilson (QB – SEA) leading the league at 19 percent. However, no one had a higher completion percentage on passes over 20-plus yards than Tua, completing 50 percent of his deep ball passes.
Secondly, let’s look at his overall completion percentage at 67 percent — tied for the fourth-best in the NFL. Yes, I get it. It’s easier to have a higher percentage when you’re throwing shorter passes, but outside of Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA), what weapons did he really have to throw to? Miles Gaskin was the third leading receiver on the team with 49 receptions. DeVante Parker was fourth, played only 10 games, and had 40 receptions, with tight end Durham Smythe (TE – MIA) rounding out the top 5 with 34. The other tight end, Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA), was second with 73.
Fast-forward to 2022, the Dolphins added one of the best big-play wide receivers to ever play in Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA), a solid WR3 in Cedrick Wilson (WR – MIA), an excellent receiving back in Chase Edmonds (RB – MIA), and blazing fast running back Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA). If you couple these playmakers with Waddle and Gesicki, and then you tell me there is a 67 percent chance that one of these playmakers gets their hands on the ball on every pass play, you may be looking at a breakout for Tagovailoa. Take advantage of the unfounded hate of Tua Tagovailoa and grab him late in startups or trade to get him on the cheap.
Lawrences’ rookie season was marred with inconsistent play, controversy with his head coach that led to a mid-season firing, and a severe lack of weapons. Justin Herbert (QB – LAC) spoiled us all by coming in and lighting up the fantasy world in his rookie season, but that is the exception, not the rule. With a new coaching staff and the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, the Jaguars are expecting a Year 2 leap for Lawrence, and so should the fantasy community. There really isn’t much that was good about his rookie season, and if he were any other quarterback with the rookie season he had, the Jaguars might be considering a quarterback change. But, he is not just any other quarterback. He is the same quarterback who excelled at every level and was one of the highest-rated prospects at the quarterback position since Andrew Luck.
The Jags were one of the most active teams in free agency, signing wide receivers Christian Kirk (WR – JAC) and Zay Jones (WR – JAC), tight end Evan Engram (TE – JAC), and guard Brandon Scherff (OL – JAC). Couple that with the return of his college teammate, running back Travis Etienne, and the Jags now have some weapons for Lawrence.
The owner of Trevor Lawrence probably isn’t ready to part with him on the cheap just yet, but if you’re in a startup draft, Lawrence is the perfect late-round quarterback that could end up in an elite tier as early as this season. Currently coming off the board between QB12 and QB14, Lawrence is a quarterback I’ll be targeting in all my startup drafts this season.
If you are reading this and Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF) is still on the 49ers roster, buy buy buy Trey Lance. Lance has seen his value take a hit as his ability to be the starter has been questioned in the media, and the longer Garoppolo is on the team, the lower Lance’s value will drop. I don’t need to tell you the value of a Konami Code quarterback in this league. Even if you have to stash him on your bench this season and watch Jimmy Garoppolo for one more season, the 49ers did not trade three first-round picks to have Lance ride the bench for his career.
The 49ers have the weapons in place for Lance to succeed, and they have proven to be able to draft talent on the offensive side of the ball. Signing Deebo Samuel (WR – SF) to a long-term deal would go a long way to helping Lance’s value, but a running quarterback in a system that likes to run would be a match made in heaven. If an owner in your league is a little panicked with all the news about Trey Lance not being ready, now would be the time to make an offer.
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