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Andrew Erickson’s Values to Target Based on Best Ball ADP 2.0 (2022 Fantasy Football)

May 26, 2022


 
Underdog’s Best Ball Mania III has been live for well over a few weeks now, and there are some interesting ADP movers now that the dust has finally settled from the aftermath of the 2022 NFL Draft.

The following report will break down the biggest risers and fallers from the middle of May at each of the four skill positions, with additional insight into actions to take with the players that are shaking up early 2022 best ball ADP and fantasy football rankings.

OVERALL BIGGEST RISERS

Rank Player Current ADP Position Rank Old ADP ADP difference
1 Jarvis Landry (WR – NO) 137.9 WR62 161.7 23.8
2 Jalen Tolbert (WR – DAL) 161.1 WR71 179.9 18.8
3 K.J. Hamler (WR – DEN) 176.5 WR77 195.2 18.7
4 Tim Patrick (WR – DEN) 129.7 WR59 146.5 16.8
5 Keaontay Ingram (RB – ARI) 194.9 RB58 210.3 15.4
6 Jameis Winston (QB – NO) 158 QB21 172.4 14.4
7 Tyrion Davis-Price (RB – SF) 171.3 RB53 184.5 13.2
8 Jamison Crowder (WR – BUF) 140.3 WR63 151.1 10.8
9 Darrell Henderson (RB – LAR) 149.3 RB46 160.1 10.8
10 Alec Pierce (WR – IND) 163.1 WR72 173.5 10.4
11 Gerald Everett (TE – LAC) 172.9 TE22 183 10.1
12 Russell Gage (WR – TB) 97.1 WR46 106.9 9.8
13 Wan’Dale Robinson (WR – NYG) 193.1 WR85 202.7 9.6
14 Mike Williams (WR – LAC) 36.6 WR15 46.1 9.5
15 Bryan Edwards (WR – ATL) 207.7 WR91 215.8 8.1
16 Miles Sanders (RB – PHI) 79.1 RB26 86.2 7.1
17 Nyheim Hines (RB – IND) 157.1 RB48 163.9 6.8
18 Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU) 121.4 RB38 128 6.6
19 Robbie Anderson (WR – CAR) 177.1 WR79 183.7 6.6
20 Robert Tonyan (TE – GB) 133.2 TE14 139.5 6.3
21 Hassan Haskins (RB – TEN) 200.7 RB59 207 6.3
22 Allen Robinson (WR – LAR) 52.7 WR25 58.8 6.1
23 Mecole Hardman (WR – KC) 127.6 WR58 133.6 6
24 Michael Pittman (WR – IND) 34.2 WR13 40 5.8
25 Tyler Allgeier (RB – ATL) 143.1 RB45 148.7 5.6
26 Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC) 81.8 RB27 87.2 5.4
27 Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) 45.4 WR21 50.5 5.1
28 Aaron Jones (RB – GB) 20.3 RB10 25.4 5.1
29 Devin Duvernay (WR – BAL) 205.1 WR90 209.7 4.6
30 Kenneth Gainwell (RB – PHI) 161.2 RB49 165.5 4.3

 
The biggest riser over the last two weeks is newly signed Saints wide receiver Jarvis Landry. The 29-year-old provides much-needed depth to a formerly barren New Orleans receiving room that lacked playmakers a season ago.

His best season with the Browns came back in 2019 when he averaged 12.2 fantasy points per game in half-point scoring as the WR13. The former LSU star’s production fell off in the last two seasons amid quarterback Baker Mayfield‘s struggles.

However, Landry displayed a higher fantasy ceiling in games that Odell Beckham Jr. missed from 2020 to 2021, averaging 11.2 points per game in 2020 (nine games) and 9.5 points per game in 2021 (10 games).

So although his WR56 and 8.9 fantasy points per game in 2021 suggest Landry may be on the decline, he was more a victim of bad circumstances. His 25% target rate per route run ranked inside the top 12 last season — tying him with the likes of D.J. Moore, DK Metcalf, Brandin Cooks, and Stefon Diggs.

He’ll compete for his fair share of targets in an offense alongside what now appears like a sneaky good pass-catching corps between veteran Michael Thomas, first-round rookie Chris Olave, and running back Alvin Kamara.

There’s a clear path for steady fantasy WR2 production with Landry if Thomas doesn’t overcome the remaining hurdles stemming from his ankle rehab.

His ADP rise after his landing spot is a reminder that other notable WRs that are currently free agents — Will Fuller, Odell Beckham, Julio Jones — will never be cheaper than they are at this moment in time.

Dallas Cowboys rookie third-round pick Jalen Tolbert is the next biggest riser, and it’s no doubt related to his immediate opportunity to see the field with Michael Gallup coming off a late-season torn ACL injury.

The South Alabama product was a mega-producer in the small-school college ranks.

The 6-foot-1, 194-pound deep-ball specialist earned a top-three career 31% dominator rating which factor in a redshirt freshman season. Tolbert posted dominator ratings of 35%, 42%, and 42% from his sophomore year onward. He torched defenses downfield as the nation’s leader in targets (99), catches (38), and receiving yards (1,402) on targets of 20-plus air yards.

With a 19-year-old college breakout age to boot, nobody will be shocked if he hits the ground running from the get-go.

K.J. Hamler’s gotten the most OTA buzz among all WRs, which has inflated his ADP by nearly 1.5 rounds. Russell Wilson has gone as far as coining Hamler as a “Young Star” and admittedly it’s hard to not get excited about the Broncos’ speed demon. He’s really the only pure speed wideout on the Denver depth chart, so he should see unique touches in the offense to take advantage of his vertical ability.

Injuries have obviously derailed him, but there’s no ignoring his enticing splash-play potential in the best ball scoring format.

Arizona Cardinals sixth-round rookie running back Keontay Ingram had been gaining steam as the potential handcuff to James Conner, but the recent signing of Darrel Williams all but nukes that idea. Anticipate Williams’ ADP to rise substantially in the coming days/weeks while Ingram fades into oblivion.

 

I declared Jameis Winston as my biggest riser on a recent episode of the FantasyPros football podcast. The Saints’ quarterback played with almost zero weapons a season ago and still managed to average 17.5 fantasy points per game — good for QB14 on the year. Winston also finished the season with the league’s sixth-highest passer rating (102.8) and the lowest turnover-worthy play rate (3%) of his career. Winston led all QBs last year in fantasy points per dropback (0.64).

With a plethora of toys added to his arsenal, Winston is emerging as an intriguing late-round QB2 fantasy option. The market agrees, as his ADP continues to rise.

Gerald Everett is easily one of my favorite late-round tight ends, so I am glad the consensus is finally starting to catch on. He was solid during stretches of the 2021 season, particularly after Russell Wilson returned from injury. The ex-Rams tight end ranked as the TE9 in fantasy points per game (PPR) from Weeks 10-16 while running a route on 74% of dropbacks.

Everett proved he can be the featured No. 1 tight end for the Chargers coming off a career year. He achieved career-highs in receptions (48) and receiving yards (478) and wreaked havoc with the ball in his hands, forcing 11 missed tackles after the catch — sixth-most among tight ends.

His peripheral metrics in Seattle’s offense — 12% target share, 63% route participation, and 17% target rate per route run — were nearly identical to Jared Cook in the Chargers’ offense last season.

Cook finished as TE16 overall, which seems like Everett’s fantasy floor heading into 2022. The tackle-breaking tight end finished the 2021 season just .4 points per game short of Cook’s average (8.3 versus 7.9) despite playing in an offense that ranked dead last in pass attempts per game (29.1).

L.A. ranked third in that category last season (39.6). They also ranked ninth in TE targets overall.

Breakout tight ends are generally athletic players who earn above-average route participation in high-powered offenses. Everett fits the profile of next season’s star at the position. And he’s still super cheap at TE22.

CTAs

OVERALL BIGGEST FALLERS

Rank Player Current ADP Position Rank Old ADP ADP difference
1 Raheem Mostert (RB – MIA) 168.6 RB51 151.2 -17.4
2 William Fuller V (WR – FA) 163.9 WR73 150.9 -13
3 Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS) 188.4 RB56 177.3 -11.1
4 Curtis Samuel (WR – WAS) 182.6 WR80 172.2 -10.4
5 Marlon Mack (RB – HOU) 186.8 RB55 176.4 -10.4
6 Corey Davis (WR – NYJ) 158.1 WR70 147.9 -10.2
7 Michael Carter (RB – NYJ) 138.8 RB44 128.7 -10.1
8 Zamir White (RB – LV) 206.9 RB62 197.3 -9.6
9 John Metchie (WR – HOU) 187.8 WR82 178.6 -9.2
10 George Pickens (WR – PIT) 148.5 WR65 139.8 -8.7
11 Mac Jones (QB – NE) 184.1 QB25 175.6 -8.5
12 Ryan Tannehill (QB – TEN) 175.1 QB24 167 -8.1
13 Gus Edwards (RB – BAL) 168.1 RB50 160.4 -7.7
14 Logan Thomas (TE – WAS) 181.3 TE23 174.6 -6.7
15 Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA) 131.5 QB17 124.9 -6.6
16 Odell Beckham Jr. (WR – FA) 176.1 WR76 169.6 -6.5
17 Sterling Shepard (WR – NYG) 209.8 WR92 203.5 -6.3
18 Damien Harris (RB – NE) 90.8 RB31 85 -5.8
19 James Robinson (RB – JAC) 151.5 RB47 146 -5.5
20 Taysom Hill (TE – NO) 185.4 TE24 179.9 -5.5
21 Michael Thomas (WR – NO) 60.9 WR28 55.5 -5.4
22 Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA) 89.5 WR42 84.7 -4.8
23 Jameson Williams (WR – DET) 114.2 WR54 109.4 -4.8
24 Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR) 213.3 RB66 208.7 -4.6
25 Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE) 110.2 QB15 105.7 -4.5
26 Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR – CLE) 183.2 WR81 178.8 -4.4
27 Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL) 47 QB4 42.8 -4.2
28 David Montgomery (RB – CHI) 47.8 RB19 43.8 -4
29 Justin Fields (QB – CHI) 133.8 QB18 129.8 -4
30 Marvin Jones (WR – JAC) 176.8 WR78 172.8 -4

 
Raheem Mostert szn did not last long in South Beach. The Miami Dolphins added ex-Rams running back Sony Michel, further muddling the backfield’s touch projection. It was hard to buy into Mostert as a legitimate fantasy option based on his injury track record and 30-year-old age. He has played 16 games once and never started more than eight games in a season.

I’m actually shocked that Michel hasn’t fully taken over Mostert in terms of ADP, because he’s probably the most proven three-down back in the entire Miami backfield. Just from an experience standpoint, Michel has twice as many starts (35) as anybody else in the Miami backfield. Mostert (9), Chase Edmonds (15), and Myles Gaskin (17) just don’t have the same pedigree that Michel does as a former first-round pick.

I’ll continue to scoop him up in the late rounds with a current ADP outside the top 200.

I wouldn’t be entirely shocked if he leads the team in carries in 2022. He’ll probably also be extremely efficient on a per-game basis as he benefits from the favorable run scheme.

I’m not sure the market is buying the puff pieces about rookie third-round pick Brian Robinson Jr.; despite the fact that B Rob looks slated for a complementary role alongside Antonio Gibson, and Ron Rivera views the two as his new version of DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart. It is coachspeak at its finest, but there’s a chance that both these RBs are worth buying on their price dip.

The year the Panthers drafted Stewart, he finished as the RB24, averaging 12 touches per game. Williams was the RB1 with 18 TDs on a similar workload to Gibson’s 300 touches last season. Gibson’s ADP at RB22 (59th overall, previously 30th pre-draft) seems priced closer to his floor/median projection, and we obviously know the ceiling he can offer with his explosive/diverse skill set if he is required to take on an expanded role. He’s a do-it-all RB that ranked third in red-zone carries, fourth in touches, and owns two RB1 finishes (RB12, RB10) in his first two years in the NFL. All in all, AG is discount Nick Chubb, who also operates in a committee but still gets drafted in the second round of fantasy drafts.

Robinson is RB56, which seems absolutely egregious based on his draft capital. Third-round running backs have earned 125 touches on average since 2013.

Per The Athletic’s Ben Standig, Rivera envisions using a two-back system, which means Robinson will see ample touches to score fantasy points.

The Alabama product finished third in missed tackles and seventh in PFF rushing grade (90.4) while also flashing his chops in the passing game in 2021. He caught 35-of-38 targets for 296 receiving yards.

It’s strange that both Washington RBs are seeing their ADPs decline, and it’s the same story with Curtis Samuel, despite the fact that Samuel is healthy at team OTAs. The guy is getting the “injury-prone” treatment, even though 2021 was the only season he’s been a non-factor because of injury.

Let’s not be too quick to forget that Samuel is just one year removed from a top-25 fantasy finish and 23rd-ranked 1.94 yards per route run. WR80 ADP? Come on.

Tua Tagovailoa is the newest QB to fall in ADP this spring, as Mac Jones and Ryan Tannehill felt the brunt of the market in my first edition of Best Ball Values to Target Based on ADP (2022 Fantasy Football).

The Dolphins’ QB is falling because of the social media videos of him underthrowing deep passes to Tyreek Hill. It seems silly that would actually cause his real ADP to fall, but that is the social media world we live in. I do find the constant defending of Tua’s deep ball and arm strength comical. Because if it actually wasn’t a problem, nobody would be talking about it. The constant efforts by his teammates to defend him is great sportsmanship, but it doesn’t change reality.

His lack of willingness to target downfield — 7.5% deep ball rate in 2021, 36th out of 37 qualifying QBs and nearly identical to 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo — tells you all you need to know about Tagovailoa’s field-stretching arm. He’s got limited upside as a fantasy QB because of it. I’d go as far as saying he’s just Southpaw Jimmy G. His numbers will present the illusion he’s uber-efficient, but the eye test and fantasy box scores won’t match up.

Andrew Erickson Mock Draft


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