Best Dynasty Value on All 32 Teams (2022 Fantasy Football)
While we wait for training camps and the temperature of the beat writer mill to heat up, it’s a perfect time to take on another dynasty league. If you have restraint (unlike me) and have already maxed out the number of leagues you can handle, then your offseason forecast could include a trade tornado warning being issued to your league mates.
I’ve taken out my fine-tooth comb and picked out the best dynasty values to attack on every NFL depth chart. That’s right, all 32 teams. 32 players to swing offers for or place in the queue while you impatiently wait to be back on the draft clock. Enjoy.
*All 1QB Startup Dynasty ADP per DLF May ADP*
James Conner (RB – ARI) Overall ADP: 82.1, Positional ADP: RB26
Life after drafting James Conner in 2022pic.twitter.com/6Nvhtt1fWj
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 1, 2022
James Conner is being criminally underrated in dynasty circles. If dynasty managers played this format in two-year windows like many claim to, Conner would be a locked-in top-20 dynasty back. His new contract puts him in Arizona for at least two seasons, as the team can’t save considerable money by cutting him until after the 2023 season. During his abbreviated run as Arizona’s workhorse, Conner crushed last year as the RB2 in fantasy points per game. The pass-game usage he saw in that stretch gives him an immensely high ceiling and floor. In Weeks 9-14, he saw a 15.8% target share (5.2 targets per game). Over a full season at that pace, he would have finished fifth in target share behind Austin Ekeler and third in raw target volume behind only Ekeler and Najee Harris. The health concerns for Conner have made him the screaming value.
Drake London (WR – ATL) Overall ADP: 28.3, Positional ADP: WR15
Seeing Drake London as a top-20 dynasty wide receiver might prompt many to think, “how is he a value when he’s already here without playing a snap?” Because if he produces in his rookie season, he’s only going to climb higher in the ranks. Two rookies from last year’s class (Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle) are already inside the top 12 in dynasty ECR. There are also three wide receivers that are entering their third season in the league that also find themselves as dynasty WR1s. London has the draft capital, an easy lane for a massive rookie season target share, and the talent to ascend quickly.
Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL) Overall ADP: 45.6, Positional ADP: WR22
“I can’t draft Rashod Bateman in BAL. Two words. Lamar. Jackson…
Oh & those passing attempts. Yeah. The passing attempts.” pic.twitter.com/MHE10OXXvm
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 27, 2021
This ADP for Rashod Bateman is still egregious. Bateman has the talent and target opportunity to blow this out of the water. Baltimore can remain a run-focused offense, and it doesn’t matter. Marquise Brown drew a 26.1% target share last year and finished with 146 targets, good for ninth among all wide receivers. Bateman was a better prospect than Brown entering the NFL and will show this season that he is the better NFL player. Despite getting off to a slow start to the season, Bateman was 26th in win rate versus man coverage (per Playerprofiler.com). He’s a true X receiver with only Mark Andrews to compete with for targets.
Gabriel Davis (WR – BUF) Overall ADP: 80.6, Positional ADP: WR42
Gabriel Davis could make zero progress forward in the targets per route department (18%) and see a big bump in targets thanks to more routes.
Hard to see a scenario where he doesn't get to 85-90% in the Bills' offense.
21% target share player in that role down the stretch: pic.twitter.com/iZMnCS1RCe
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) May 12, 2022
The Gabriel Davis hype machine apparently hasn’t spread throughout the entire dynasty community considering this ADP. Davis deserves the praise, though. Last season after becoming a full-time player in Week 14, he had a 2.10 yards per route run (per PFF). If he kept up this level of production the entire season, he would have ranked 13th in this metric among wide receivers with 50 or more targets. In Weeks 14-20, he was PFF’s 14th-highest-graded wide receiver. Tied to arguably the league’s best quarterback inside of a top-five scoring offense, if you’re waiting to see Davis do it for an entire season, you’ll be late to the party. RSVP and acquire his services now.
Terrace Marshall (WR – CAR) Overall ADP: 212, Positional ADP: WR90
Terrace Marshall makes this list even after a dreadful rookie season. No, this isn’t my futile attempt to massage my priors and truther status. With Christian McCaffrey sitting at RB3, D.J. Moore comfortably being drafted as WR14, and Robbie Anderson turning to dust last season, Marshall is the obvious (and possibly only) choice. The outlook isn’t rosy, with a pitiful 0.50 yards per route run in his rookie season and a foot injury that landed him on the IR (per PFF). However, the question remains how much the foot injury suppressed his effectiveness and availability throughout the season. We saw presumably healthy Marshall crush opponents in the preseason, securing 75% of his targets with 3.93 yards per route run (per PFF). Yes, it was the preseason, and it was against many backup-quality players, but the results were such a stark contrast from his regular-season totals that we can’t rule out that injury played a big part in his rookie-season flop. Marshall is being drafted outside the top 200 players currently. Taking a shot on him in his sophomore season is essentially free.
Cole Kmet (TE – CHI) Overall ADP: 132.3. Positional ADP: TE14
Cole Kmet looks HUGE pic.twitter.com/UTWIO4xalQ
— Bears Nation (@BearsNationCHI) April 14, 2022
We wouldn’t be having this discussion if Cole Kmet hadn’t finished last season with zero zilch nada for touchdowns. Kmet ranked inside the top 12 amongst tight ends in targets (93, eighth), target share (17.7%, 11th), receiving yards (612, 12th), and air yard share (17.6%, 11th). With the depth chart devoid of receiving talent outside of Darnell Mooney, Kmet should see a similar share of the passing offense (if not more) in 2022. With touchdown regression poised to strike his box scores, Kmet could easily vault into the top 8-10 range for dynasty tight ends after this season.
Joe Burrow (QB – CIN) Overall ADP: 71.6, Positional ADP: QB6
With Ja’Marr Chase (WR1), Tee Higgins (WR7), and Joe Mixon (RB9) also all being ranked inside the top 10 at their respective positions in dynasty ADP, the value pickings are slim on this team. Tyler Boyd (WR58) could qualify, but entering his age-28 season as the clear third or fourth option in this passing attack, that screams more trap than value. As good as Joe Burrow was last season, we could see him reach yet another level in 2022 if the Bengals protect him better and fully unleash him. Cincinnati further invested in the offensive line this offseason for a good reason; Burrow was second in yards per attempt and sixth in passer rating when kept clean last season (per PFF). Burrow was eighth in pressures and tied for ninth in quarterback hits. Coupled with the Bengals ranking 16th in passing rate on first and second down, he sat at 15th in passing attempts. If Zac Taylor lets Burrow do his thing in 2022, he has the talent and surrounding skill players to wedge his way possibly into top three conversation industry-wide.
David Njoku (TE – CLE) Overall ADP: 155.1, Positional ADP: TE18
Another day of people 😴…
on David Njoku’s Top 5️⃣ upsidepic.twitter.com/B6FAmkNPwf
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) April 10, 2022
David Njoku’s dynasty value is screaming at this moment. It’s been turned up to 11. Your eardrums might burst if you don’t answer the call to acquire him in dynasty. Njoku will gain value as soon as he signs the rumored extension regarding which he and the Browns have been in talks. So that’s one avenue. The other is his immense talent is at the precipice of being unleashed. Last year, Njoku was 11th in yards per route run and fifth in yards after the catch per reception (minimum 20 targets, per PFF). He can win the battle to become Deshaun Watson‘s second target over David Bell, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Co. You’ll wish you traded for Njoku at pennies on the dollar when he does.
Jalen Tolbert (WR – DAL) Overall ADP: 122.6, Positional ADP: WR60
Jalen Tolbert is the cheapest exposure to one of the NFL’s best offenses. For multiple years, Tolbert will have to contend with Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb, but Dalton Schultz is only playing on a franchise tag. He could be on the move after this season. Tolbert hails from a small school (South Alabama), but outside of not being an early declare, he checks multiple boxes that we look for. He posted a 96th-percentile college dominator and 95th-percentile collegiate target share (33.4%). Over the last two seasons, he was seventh and sixth in receiving yards and 32nd and 12th in yards per route run among all FBS wideouts with 50 or more targets. If Gallup starts the season slowly or on the PUP, Tolbert could contend with Schultz to be the second option in the Dallas passing attack early on.
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN) Overall ADP: 66.6, Positional ADP: WR34
Appreciate Courtland Sutton MORE❗️
2019 – 12th in Yards/Route Run
(Min 50 tgs, per PFF)
was otw to being Elite
Then ACL tear…shit QB play…
2nd yr Post ACL ✅
BIG QB upgrade ✅
2 years (minimum) contract 🔒
And he’s WR34 in Dynasty….C’MON!!pic.twitter.com/77g28XXlmw
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 18, 2022
Since the Broncos traded for Russell Wilson, Courtland Sutton has seen his stock rise, but it’s still not nearly high enough. Sutton was the WR42 (82.8 overall, per DLF ADP) in dynasty drafts in February. For a receiver entering his age-27 season, now tied to Wilson, and with contract certainty for at least the next two seasons (up to four possibly), he should be drafted inside the top 24 wideouts in dynasty. Sutton had a down year last season with pitiful quarterback play while coming off an ACL tear. His yards per route run dipped to 1.43, but we can’t forget what he did in his sophomore season. In 2019, he was 12th in yards per route run among wide receivers and looked to be on the fast track to entering the league’s elite (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). The rest is history. A spot among the NFL’s upper-tier wide receivers is still in his range of outcomes in his second season post-ACL repair with a massive quarterback upgrade.
Jameson Williams (WR – DET) Overall ADP: 55.0, Positional ADP: WR27
Jameson Williams is already a top-30 dynasty wide receiver without playing a snap. Could he begin the 2022 season limited? Yes, again. Will that matter if he shows the dynasty community a glimmer of his talent and upside this year? Nope. Williams’ blinding speed and underrated route chops led him to rank 13th in yards per route run last year at Alabama (minimum 50 targets, per PFF); while also posting top-16 rankings in passer rating when targeted in the short and intermediate areas of the field. The move is to get Williams’ exposure in dynasty now because his stock will only rise once he gets on the field.
Green Bay Packers
Allen Lazard (WR – GB) Overall ADP: 125.8, Positional ADP: WR61
Allen Lazard is being vastly underrated. The chemistry with Aaron Rodgers is already in place, and Lazard is a perfect fit and quietly elite at what Rodgers loves to do. Over the last three seasons, Rodgers has ranked 13th, 8th, and 13th in pass attempts between 0-9 yards from the line of scrimmage (per PFF). Over that same timespan, Lazard has ranked seventh, first, and 25th in yards per route in this area of the field (minimum 20 short-area targets, per PFF). If Lazard steps forward in 2022 as Rodgers’ top target and (gasp) gets a contract extension, his stock will rocket up the board.
Brandin Cooks (WR – HOU) Overall ADP: 70.6, Positional ADP: WR37
Brandin Cooks is STILL underrated.
This is an evergreen tweet.
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 3, 2022
All Brandin Cooks does is produce. With 1,000-yard receiving seasons in six of the last seven years on four different teams, Cooks is a baller, and he’s poised to do it again in 2022. With a new contract in place, he is poised to remain a target hog in Houston for at least the next two seasons. Last year in the 10 full games with Davis Mills under center, Cooks saw a 27.5% target share and averaged 67 receiving yards per game. He’s been the WR19 and WR17 since arriving in Houston. Based on volume alone, even if age does start to creep into the conversation, he should rack up two more top-24 seasons if his health holds up.
Matt Ryan (QB – IND) Overall ADP: 219.1, Positional ADP: QB25
Frank Reich coaxed a QB18 season out of the dumpster fire that is Carson Wentz last year. In his final season, Philip Rivers was a top-16 weekly fantasy option in 43.7% of his games. Matt Ryan still has more in the tank and is playing at a higher level at this juncture than both of those quarterbacks. Last season with minimal talent outside of Cordarrelle Patterson, Kyle Pitts, and Russell Gage, Ryan was top 10 in deep-ball accuracy, clean pocket accuracy, and under pressure accuracy ratings (per Playerprofiler.com). With an improved offensive line, Michael Pittman, and Reich calling the shots, Ryan can easily churn out mid-QB2 production (if not higher) as a Colt.
Christian Kirk (WR – JAC) Overall ADP: 91.3, Positional ADP: WR47
While we all have had our quick chuckle at the Jaguars’ expense, we need to get real here. Christian Kirk is easily the most talented receiver on this roster (sorry, Marvin Jones, but it’s true). Kirk was 22nd in slot yards per route run last season (minimum 15 slot targets, per PFF). Trevor Lawrence struggled in the short and intermediate parts of the field, with 29.2% of his passing attempts aimed at this area. Last season, Kirk was PFF’s 22nd-highest-graded wide receiver on intermediate targets (minimum 10 targets). After a disappointing start to his career, Kirk is poised to see a second contract bounce back.
Kansas City Chiefs
Skyy Moore (WR – KC) Overall ADP: 72.0, Positional ADP: WR40
Skyy MOORE PROPAGANDA 😘pic.twitter.com/e73SxCuLG8
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 18, 2022
Even without playing a down with Patrick Mahomes, Skyy Moore deserves to be higher than this in ADP. At the very least, he should be in the mid-30s alongside Chris Olave (WR35), and he should certainly be ahead of JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR39). Moore was a mega-producer at Western Michigan with a 90th-percentile college dominator and 99th-percentile collegiate target share. With the skill to play both outside and in the slot and a running back’s mentality in the open field, Moore will “Skyy” rocket as soon as training camp starts, and it won’t stop.
Las Vegas Raiders
Derek Carr (QB – LV) Overall ADP: 162.3, Positional ADP: QB18
Before the offense fell apart around him, Derek Carr was the QB11 in fantasy football. At the age of 31, with an improved receiver group and the Davante Adams addition, Carr has plenty of good football ahead of him. Last season he was seventh in true completion rate, first in play-action completion rate, and first in clean pocket accuracy (per Playerprofiler.com). The Raiders began last season fifth in neutral-script passing rate before it tailed off somewhat as the team was limping to the finish line. Carr could easily be a top-12 option at the quarterback position for the next two seasons that is currently being viewed as a mid to low QB2.
Los Angeles Chargers
Mike Williams (WR – LAC) Overall ADP: 70.6, Positional ADP: WR38
Mike Williams posted six 20+ point PPR performances in 2021 (tied for 4th most). Four of them came in the first five weeks.
Suffered a knee injury in Game 5 that severely limited his Week 6 routes. Staley said no correlation with his drop in production.
Finished strong. pic.twitter.com/A7ihcXYsP7
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) May 16, 2022
The age and injury bias around Mike Williams has gone too far. Yes, he’s entering his age-28 season, but he’s also armed with a new deal that locks him in for at least the next two seasons with one of the best young quarterbacks in the NFL. As the WR13 in fantasy points per game last season, his efficiency remained stellar while his box-score numbers were up and down. He was 15th in yards per route run overall while also ranking 19th in yards per route run against zone coverage (minimum 50 targets overall and 15 zone targets). He’ll easily outproduce this ADP if his health holds over the next two seasons.
Los Angeles Rams
Cam Akers (RB – LAR) Overall ADP: 31.3, Positional ADP: RB13
Peering at this ranking, you’re not getting an insane injury discount with Cam Akers, but at age 22, with two years left on his rookie deal, Akers could still climb up the rankings. There’s a tier of nearly age-27 running backs that he could hop in Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb, and Dalvin Cook with a healthy 2022 season. While his 2.31 yards after contact per attempt last year was yuck, he rolled up a 2.96 mark in his rookie season at full health that was good for 28th, immediately behind Alvin Kamara (minimum 50 carries, per PFF). If Akers resumes his workhorse ways in 2022 with better results inside of a top 5-10 scoring offense, his stock will bounce back and rise up the dynasty boards.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA) Overall ADP: 147.0, Positional ADP: QB16
— Ty Hill (@cheetah) May 12, 2022
At age 24, Tua Tagovailoa takes a ton of unnecessary shade from the dynasty community with a Miami team that’s on the rise. Last season, Tagovailoa was quietly excellent as he was top 10 in pressured completion rate (10th), play-action completion percentage (fourth), and clean pocket completion rate (10th). With a retooled offensive line and Tyreek Hill in South Beach, Tagovailoa could push his way into the top 10-12 dynasty quarterback realm this season if this Dolphins offense explodes.
Irv Smith (TE – MIN) Overall ADP: 143.5, Positional ADP: TE15
The last time we saw Irv Smith in extended action, he was stuck in a complementary role alongside Kyle Rudolph except for a late-season cup of coffee as “the guy”. Smith returns to an every-down role in the Vikings’ passing attack. Behind him, they have only Ben Ellefson, Johnny Mundt, Zach Davidson, and Nick Muse, which means Smith isn’t coming off the field. In 2020, he was eighth in yards per target while flashing skill as a big slot receiver. In a limited showing, Smith was eighth in yards after the catch per reception and fifth in passer rating when targeted from the slot (minimum 10 slot targets, per PFF). This season, the Vikings are counting on Smith, as they didn’t add any pass catchers this offseason outside of Jalen Nailor in the sixth round. Smith is headed for free agency after this season, so he has all the motivation in the world to crush in 2022. That happens, and his dynasty stock will rise considerably.
New England Patriots
Kendrick Bourne (WR – NE) Overall ADP: 198.3, Positional ADP: WR84
Kendrick Bourne is available for pennies in dynasty, and he shouldn’t be. Last year, Bourne finished with the same number of top-24 wide receiver weeks as teammate Jakobi Meyers (six). Bourne also popped in numerous efficiency metrics, such as yards per route run, where he finished 14th (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). Bourne also ranked first in QBR when targeted and finished as the WR37 in fantasy points per game last season. Kendrick Bourne is a free square in dynasty. Bourne is a prime target, especially in leagues that utilize a best ball format, considering the volatile week-to-week nature of the Patriots’ offensive attack plan.
New Orleans Saints
Chris Olave (WR – NO) Overall ADP: 68.1, Positional ADP: WR35
Dennis Allen on the early look at Chris Olave ⚜️ pic.twitter.com/zgKANTaaMM
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) May 14, 2022
Chris Olave arrives in the Big Easy after a productive career at the Ohio State University. Olave enters the NFL landscape with a 76th-percentile collegiate target share and 86th-percentile breakout age (per Playerprofiler.com) in his back pocket. Olave was arguably the most nuanced route runner in the class that could hit the ground running. It sounds like Michael Thomas‘ health is still iffy, which is concerning considering the lengthy layoff, and he still isn’t 100%. If Thomas cannot go or looks like a shell of his former self, Olave’s main competition for targets is Jarvis Landry and Alvin Kamara. If Olave challenges the team lead in targets or has a few ceiling weeks, he could enter the top 25-30 wide receiver ranks in dynasty as other veterans continue to age and drop around him.
New York Giants
Wan’Dale Robinson (WR – NYG) Overall ADP: 126.5, Positional ADP: WR63
Wan’Dale Robinson’s slip in dynasty rookie drafts is predictably bleeding over into his startup value. Robinson is going too late in drafts for a player of his talent and current situation. He concluded his career at Kentucky with a 98th-percentile college target share and 95th-percentile breakout age (per Playerprofiler.com). Last year, he was 18th in yards per route run and 13th in receiving yards from the slot (minimum 20 slot targets, per PFF). Robinson will compete for targets in Year 1 against the rollercoaster known as Kadarius Toney, dusty Kenny Golladay, and Sterling Shepard, who is recovering from an Achilles tendon rupture. Robinson could easily work his way into the starting lineup by Week 1 if Toney is dealt or he flashes well in camp. It doesn’t take a vivid imagination to see Robinson leading the team in targets by the season’s end.
New York Jets
Zach Wilson (QB – NYJ) Overall ADP: 174.1, Positional ADP: QB21
With Garrett Wilson (WR20) and Elijah Moore (WR24) both checking in as top-24 dynasty wide receivers and Breece Hall going off the board at RB6, I’m going to pivot and go with the lynchpin that makes this all work, Zach Wilson. Wilson is currently going outside the top 20 dynasty quarterbacks, and while I don’t disagree with this at all, there’s value to be had if he can take a step forward in Year 2. Last year, Wilson was objectively terrible in most games, but he did show some prowess with the deep ball, ranking fifth in accuracy rating (per Playerprofiler.com). He also suffered through the third-most drops in the NFL. While Wilson deserves to wear a crown of shame for his rookie performance, his receiving talent last year didn’t do him any favors. This offseason, the Jets have well-stocked the skill-position cupboard and fortified the offensive line. If Wilson is ever going to fire, he’s in a prime spot to do so in 2022.
DeVonta Smith (WR – PHI) Overall ADP: 58.3, Positional ADP: WR29
Devonta Smith is coming off of a 64-916-5 rookie season and seems to have not gained any value. There are concerns about the passing volume but certainly not the role or talent he displayed.
He is a great guy to price check in your dynasty leagues. pic.twitter.com/qWO5r7r43B
— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) March 8, 2022
DeVonta Smith has seen his dynasty stock dip after the arrival of A.J. Brown. It’s time to buy the dip. In April, he was drafted as the WR24 in dynasty startups, but he has since dropped to WR29 and could fall further the closer we get to the season. Smith finished his rookie season excelling all over the field. His #ReceptionPerception profile by Matt Harmon is lit up with green on every route imaginable except the nine and flat. Smith logged 77th- or higher percentile finishes against man, zone, and press, per Harmon. Smith was also productive in yards per route run, ranking 30th (1.77) among all wideouts with 50 or more targets and third amongst rookies with 25 or more targets. He surpassed Elijah Moore (1.75) and Jaylen Waddle (1.75), who are currently ranked above him as the WR24 and WR9 in startup ADP.
Chase Claypool (WR – PIT) Overall ADP: 80.8, Positional ADP: WR43
Follow me down this Rabbit hole.
In 2022 could Chase Claypool be a POWER SLOT in PIT❓
(per PFF, min 10 slot tgs)
Diontae 1.07 (90th)
Claypool 1.75 (30th of 114 WRs)
Diontae & Pickens outside
Claypool slot 🤯
DAMN I’M BACK IN pic.twitter.com/GHvcgskfp2
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 5, 2022
While many have tossed in the terrible towel with Chase Claypool, I say it’s time to grab him in dynasty. Claypool has dropped from the WR40 in dynasty in April to the WR43 currently, and while that doesn’t sound like much, his new teammate George Pickens is already WR44. Give it a few more weeks, and those ADPs will flip. If a positive blurb surfaces from a beat writer on Pickens, it will move handily in Pickens’ favor. While Claypool has experienced mental brain farts for all of the world to see, the upside is still very real, and his role in 2022 could be the ticket to accessing that. He produced as soon as he hit the NFL, ranking behind only Justin Jefferson among rookies in yards per route run (minimum 25 targets, per PFF) overall. Last year, while he saw a decline in his metrics across the board, he was still efficient when lined up in the slot. Among all wideouts with 10 or more slot targets, he was 29th in slot yards per route run and 16th in yards after the catch per reception from the inside (per PFF). With Juju Smith-Schuster in Kansas City and Diontae Johnson‘s success coming from the outside, Claypool could emerge as a power slot this season in Pittsburgh.
San Francisco 49ers
Tyrion Davis-Price (RB – SF) Overall ADP: 150.0, Positional ADP: RB48
Dynasty managers are treating third-round pick in the NFL Draft, Tyrion Davis-Price, like an afterthought. Elijah Mitchell‘s startup ADP hasn’t budged from April to May, as he is still the RB23. Even the most bullish Mitchell supporters weren’t forecasting him to finish as the RB14 last season with the third-highest opportunity share among running backs. Yes, the echoes of Trey Sermon‘s demise still resonate within the dynasty community. I share that pain, and while this might come off as a case of “why didn’t you learn your lesson the first time”, this is different. Last year in May, Trey Sermon was drafted as the RB26 (67.6 overall). Davis-Price isn’t coming close to that level of hype, going nearly 100 selections later as the RB48. Davis-Price wasn’t a player that was high on my board entering the NFL Draft process, but I’m adjusting and taking the value that he presents currently. The risk is baked into his cost. Davis-Price has the benchmark athleticism to succeed in this zone-based run scheme with a 77th-percentile 40-yard dash and 73rd-percentile 10-yard split time. After what we have seen transpire in San Francisco over the last few years, we can’t rule out that Kyle Shanahan pivots off Mitchell like he’s done so with other productive rookies.
Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA) Overall ADP: 97.6, Positional ADP: WR50
Tyler Lockett’s fall from grace in dynasty is twofold. It’s a combination of his age as he enters his age-30 season and the decomposing garbage that the team plans to roll out at quarterback in Drew Lock or Geno Smith. If Smith starts, we’ve at least seen what that looks like, as Lockett had a 32.6% target share (48% air yard share) with seven or more targets in two of Smith’s three starts. I’m pulling for Smith to get the call again.
Lockett didn’t look like a player ready to hit the retirement home and begin sipping his prune juice last year. He ranked ninth in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets, per PFF) and receiving yards per game. We know that he’ll remain a pillar in the passing game with a contract that assures he’ll be in Seattle for the next two seasons. Securing him now can pay dividends. At this cost, it’s a bet on his talent or volume outkicking mediocre quarterback play and the hope Seattle upgrades the position next season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Russell Gage (WR – TB) Overall ADP: 130.5, Positional ADP: WR64
a WR4 that could finish as a WR3 with multiple weeks of spike WR2 production if things break right.
Sign me up in Best Ball ALL DAY.
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) March 16, 2022
Russell Gage is the cheapest and most effective option available in dynasty (no, I’m not trading for Ke’Shawn Vaughn or Cameron Brate) on what projects to be a top 3-5 scoring offense in 2022. Gage surprised me last year. In Weeks 8-18 without Calvin Ridley, Gage was the WR25 in fantasy points per game, and this isn’t just a result of inefficient volume helping prop up a player’s totals; Gage was also 17th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets, per PFF) and 12th in route win rate (per Playerprofiler.com). Tom Brady has shown the ability to support up to three fantasy wide receivers, so there’s no reason to believe he can’t do so this season. Gage is in line for numerous WR2/WR3 production weeks, with the floor and ceiling being raised if Chris Godwin gets off to a slow start.
Hassan Haskins (RB – TEN) Overall ADP: 192.8, Positional ADP: RB57
Hassan Haskins is a freebie shot on goal for a volume rusher in an offensive system that revolves around the ground game. Haskins bullied the opposition in his final season at Michigan. He was the 17th-highest-graded rusher (per PFF) while also ranking 20th in missed tackles forced and 13th in runs of 10-plus yards, which was tied with Breece Hall. The Titans just hit reset with their wide receiver spending this offseason by drafting Treylon Burks and trading away A.J. Brown. The same could happen to Derrick Henry next year. He’s an unrestricted free agent in 2024, but he can also be cut next year and save $12.5 million against the cap.
Jahan Dotson (WR – WAS) Overall ADP: 86.1, Positional ADP: WR46
Between Startups, Rookie Drafts, & Orphans this offseason:
4️⃣ Rosters with Jahan Dotson
Sometimes ya just scoop the value. pic.twitter.com/cur2iOGONM
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) May 9, 2022
Jahan Dotson got the first-round draft capital we hoped for after wrapping up a career at Penn State, where he amassed a 90th-percentile college dominator and 95th-percentile target share (per Playerprofiler.com). Dotson saw his yards per route run fall from 27th among all FBS receivers to 46th in 2021 (minimum 50 targets each season, per PFF). As Dotson’s play on the field remained top shelf, this was a case of him continuing to deal with shoddy quarterback play. Yes, Carson Wentz isn’t a great quarterback, but his fourth-ranked deep ball accuracy and even his 32nd-ranked catchable pass rate will be an uptick from what he dealt with in college (per Playerprofiler.com). Among quarterbacks with 200 or more dropbacks, Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford has never finished higher than 41st in adjusted completion percentage dating back to 2019. With Terry McLaurin slated to become an unrestricted free agent after this season, Dotson could enter 2023 as the team’s No. 1 wideout. Regardless of our thoughts of Wentz or the Commanders, access to a young and possibly future No. 1 option at a WR4 price tag is too good to pass up.
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