By The Numbers: Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, Carlos Carrasco (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

When projecting player performance for the rest of the season, BABIP helps figure out who to target or avoid. BABIP analysis can help fantasy managers decide whom to buy low and sell high.

Today’s column will focus on BABIP for pitchers since it is a statistic associated with hitters, too, in order to help make evaluative decisions. BABIP stands for Batting Average on Balls in Play and measures the result of any balls put into play except for home runs.

For some context, a pitcher’s BABIP can go up and down based on several factors, including the quality of the defense behind them and the quality of the hitters they face, and is often associated with luck.

For pitchers, a high BABIP is usually associated with bad luck, while a low BABIP suggests good luck, and so their ERA should fluctuate as their BABIP levels out.

There is not necessarily a “good” or “bad” BABIP. Instead, fantasy managers should measure a pitcher’s in-season BABIP against their career average to see how a pitcher is doing compared to how they typically do. This is similar to hitters.

There are many other statistics to consider when analyzing pitcher performance, but BABIP is a good place to start. Below are a few pitchers with some interesting BABIP numbers.

Dylan Cease (SP – CWS) .352 BABIP

Dylan Cease has the second-highest BABIP in baseball among qualified starting pitchers, and it shows in his 4.24 ERA. His career BABIP is .305, so it is likely that as his BABIP levels out, his ERA will as well.

Cease has only had three clunkers out of his nine starts this season. His latest outing against Boston resulted in seven earned runs in three innings but came about two weeks after allowing four hits and one run against them.

On the surface, Cease’s ERA is high, and fantasy managers may be frustrated with the young star. However, perceptive fantasy managers will note the many things Cease is doing well.

The righty is striking out 13 batters per nine innings, giving up less than one HR/9, and stranding 72% of runners (league average is 71.9%), all while posting a league-average 10% HR/FB rate.

These background metrics reinforce that these rough outings are not likely to continue and reflect in his xERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, which all suggest his ERA should be 2.70-2.78.

Michael Kopech (SP – CWS) .167 BABIP

Fellow White Sox starter Michael Kopech possesses the lowest BABIP in baseball among qualified starters, suggesting that he has been the luckiest pitcher this season.

He has the most considerable difference between his ERA and his xFIP. This statistic measures the results of balls put into play against a pitcher and factors in league-average defense and league average HR/FB rate.

Part of the reason for such a difference in his 4.57 xFIP and 1.29 ERA is that he has been getting lucky, especially in terms of the teams he has faced this season.

He has faced the Royals, Tigers, Cubs, Twins, and Rays – all of which have been among the worst 10 teams in run differential, batting strikeouts, or both throughout 2022.

Other factors pointing to regression for the righty include a dangerously low 29.7% ground ball rate and 0% HR/FB rate. Kopech also walks over four batters per nine innings. Allowing 54.9% fly balls and having zero of them turn into home runs is extremely good fortune, especially when runners are on base.

This would be an excellent time to sell high and capitalize on the great value.

Carlos Carrasco (SP – NYM) .312 BABIP

Based on BABIP alone, Carrasco seems to be performing exactly as he should, perhaps with some slight fluctuation up or down from his 3.50 ERA.

His .312 season BABIP is only .004 points higher than his career average BABIP, which is a good sign that his ERA is accurate. Some may point to his 6.1% HR/FB rate as a sign regression is coming. That is typically true, but Carrasco is doing many other things right to avoid a potential ERA spike. The veteran has improved his BB/9 rate, which is down to 1.36. Fewer people on base will usually score fewer runs, so even if the home run rate increases, it does not necessarily mean his earned runs will increase.

Carrasco is also above or just below average at stranding runners and inducing ground balls, both of which limit runs scored.

The righty’s 7.5 K/9 rate is his lowest since 2013, but fantasy managers should buy into his steady performance this season and value him as a top-50 starting pitcher or better the rest of the way.

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