Several statistics apply to hitters and pitchers, and today’s column will review one of those stats.
O-Swing, commonly known as chase rate, measures how often a player swings at a pitch outside the strike zone. For batters, the lower the chase rate, the better; for pitchers, it is the exact opposite.
Among the lowest induced chase rates for pitchers are Dakota Hudson, Adam Wainwright, Triston McKenzie, Josiah Gray, Framber Valdez, and Michael Wacha. These pitchers lack deception and could be prime “sell-high” pitchers.
Fantasy managers can use this same stat to find “sell high” batters when combined with some other parameters. A high O-Swing%, a high swinging strike rate, CSW%, BABIP, and a low contact rate could spell regression for batters. Some batters that fit that profile include Sheldon Neuse, Xander Bogaerts, Jesus Aguilar, Jesus Sanchez, Nick Castellanos, and Maikel Franco.
Below is a look at a few more players and an interesting “double-duty” metric.
Kevin Gausman (SP – TOR) 53.9% O-swing
Gausman has the best chase rate in baseball among qualified starting pitchers by 10.4%. Not only that, but he is also top four in lowest overall contact rate allowed, swinging-strike rate, and CSW%. He is having an exceptional year, and it appears his success from last year in San Francisco has followed him to Toronto.
Only three players, including Gausman, are top 10 in the aforementioned categories.
| Name | Team | O-Swing% | Contact% | SwStr% | CSW% |
| Kevin Gausman | TOR | 53.90% | 65.50% | 21.10% | 34.60% |
| Pablo Lopez | MIA | 37.70% | 69.30% | 15.00% | 33.60% |
| Max Scherzer | NYM | 38.40% | 69.80% | 15.40% | 32.30% |
How is Gausman managing such a high rate of swings and misses? His splitter, slider, and changeup each possess a whiff rate between 51-57%, meaning batters are swinging and missing at his breaking and offspeed pitches around half of the time.
He also added horizontal movement on his sinker, splitter, and changeup and vertical movement on his splitter and sinker, making those pitches more deceptive and difficult to hit.
Aside from 2020, the highest single-season chase rate for a qualified pitcher in the last 10 years is 39.6% and belongs to Carlos Carrasco, who did it in 2015. Gausman is on another level this season and should be considered among the best fantasy baseball pitchers for the rest of 2022.
Avisail Garcia (OF – MIA) 51.2% O-Swing
Garcia has the worst rate among qualified batters on the hitter end of the chase rate. He is swinging at over half of the pitches he sees outside of the strike zone.
During the last offseason, Garcia received a 4-year $53 million deal from the Marlins after a successful year for the Brewers in 2021. Likewise, fantasy baseball players drafted him favorably before the start of this season. His ESPN ADP was 230, his Yahoo ADP was 174, and his NFBC ADP was 171.
However, it may be the time for fantasy managers to cut ties with the struggling outfielder. His .255 BABIP is about 60 points lower than his career average, so there is reason to believe he is hitting into some bad luck.
Although bad luck may play some part in his struggles, the bigger issue for Garcia is a significant increase in strikeout rate and a lack of discipline at the plate. He has some of the worst discipline metrics among qualified players this year, including his chase rate. He also has the lowest swinging strike rate and the second-lowest overall contact rate.
| O-Swing% | Contact% | SwStr% |
| 51.2 | 60.7 | 25.1 |
This has resulted in a 33.7% K rate (tied for sixth-worst in baseball) and a 1.2% BB rate (tied for the worst in baseball). This season, Garcia’s .04 K/BB rate is one-hundredth of a point worse than pitcher Phil Niekro’s career K/BB rate.
It is time for those on the fence about Garcia to pull the plug. His struggles go beyond just bad luck.
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Taylor Tarter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Taylor, please see his archive.
