Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Stock Report: Listen to That Smooth Jazz (2022)
In dynasty leagues, player values are constantly changing, and you need to stay on top of these changes to be successful long-term. That’s where this dynasty stock report comes in as I discuss four players each week, two on the rise and two falling, both at the MLB level and in the minors as well. This week’s report features an exciting middle infielder, a former top prospect off to a horrendous start, an outfield prospect with power gains and an exciting pitching prospect with command and control issues.
Without question, Jazz Chisholm is already one of the most exciting players in the game, both from a real-life and a fantasy perspective. He’s fun, marketable, plays with energy and has a lofty offensive ceiling due to his power/speed blend. However, there have been some red flags in the profile that held Chisholm back a bit and created plenty of peaks and valleys during his rookie season. Chisholm still racked up 18 homers and 23 steals overall, but there were chunks of the season where he really wasn’t even worth starting.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. has CRAZY pop pic.twitter.com/TetUghDIfF
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 8, 2022
Through the first month of the season, we’ve seen an improved Chisholm in several areas. The most notable improvements come in his strikeout rate dropping from 28.6% to 22.8% and his chase rate dropping from 30.8% to 26%. All of this while still showcasing his tantalizing power and speed blend with five home runs and six steals along with an impressive .310/.354/.621 slash line. Chisholm’s quality of contact metrics have improved this season as well with a 14.1% barrel rate, 50% hard-hit rate and 90.9 mph AVG EV. Chisholm has been more aggressive in the zone and it’s really paying dividends so far early on.
Chisholm with a more advanced approach is a beautiful thing. He’s likely never going to be an elite AVG or OBP threat, but as long as he can hit .260+ with an OBP north of .320, that should be good enough when it comes with 20/20 or better annually. With this start, Chisholm is pushing top-50 overall and should be considered a top-five dynasty second baseman moving forward.
After a breakout year in the upper minors back in 2019, Dylan Carlson found himself inside the top 10 of many prospect rankings entering the 2020 season. But since then, he’s been a mediocre offensive player with not much to get excited about in the profile. Even last season, which was Carlson’s best to date, he only slashed .266/.343/.437 with 18 home runs in 619 plate appearances. Yes, it’s still very early in his career, but this is a large enough sample size to signal that his dynasty value is trending firmly in the wrong direction right now.
This season, Carlson hasn’t been worth rostering. He’s currently sitting on a .220/.273/.330 slash line with one homer and one steal in 110 plate appearances. On the bright side, Carlson has dropped his strikeout rate from 24.6% to 16% along with minimal improvement in his whiff rate and zone contact rate, but unfortunately, the bright side ends there. Even though Carlson is making more contact in the zone, his horrendous quality of contact metrics more than offset that. Carlson currently has a 2.5% barrel rate, an 83.9 mph AVG EV and an 18.5% hard-hit rate. All three of those metrics rank in the bottom-10% of qualified hitters this season.
If Carlson isn’t hitting for power, his profile goes from okay to bad in a hurry, as we’ve seen so far this season. Carlson doesn’t run much so he really needs to produce in the other facets offensively and that’s just not happening right now without much hope for a turnaround. Now, is he this bad? Probably not. But Carlson shouldn’t be considered a top-200 dynasty player right now and I’m doubting he ever sniffs top-150 again with his profile.
As far as top-100 prospects go, Michael Harris has been one of the most impressive bats to me in the first month of the season. Harris slid down my rankings a bit last season even though the overall stat line was pretty solid. In 420 Hi-A plate appearances, Harris slashed .294/.361/.436 with seven homers and 27 steals. He’s always shown an above-average to plus hit tool with plus speed, but the power has always lagged behind and caused the fall down my rankings. Those seven homers put him up to just nine in his first 632 plate appearances as a pro and made me wonder if he was ever going to be more than an eight-to-10 homer bat.
Well, Harris is proving me and any other doubters wrong so far in 2022 with four homers so far along with a .541 SLG and .229 ISO. Four home runs in 118 PA certainly don’t stand out, but Harris’ improvements in the power department this season are notable and have his dynasty stock shooting up as we enter the second month of the minor league season. If Harris can be a 15-to-18 homer bat to go along with a high AVG and 20+ steals, that’s much more valuable than the eight-to-10 homers I projected him as after last season. Harris should be considered a top-40 prospect moving forward and possibly even higher if these power gains stick moving forward.
Cade Cavalli rose to the upper echelon of pitching prospects in 2021, but that was a bit premature. I’m guilty of that as well, as I had Cavalli pushing my top-50 overall. However, after I saw him live in late July, my opinion of him began to change. Cavalli flashed an exciting arsenal in that start, but the command and control were both spotty. Overall, his 2021 line was pretty solid though. In 24 starts across three levels (Hi-A, Double-A, Triple-A), Cavalli posted a 3.36 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and a 33.5% strikeout rate. However, that also came with an 11.5% walk rate that was a combined 13.2% in Double-A and Triple-A.
— Eric Cross (@EricCross04) July 24, 2021
When Cavalli is commanding his arsenal well, he can dominate an opposing lineup two or three times through. However, the command and control issues that popped up last season have gotten even worse this season. Well, the command has gotten worse with the walk rate about the same. Back in Triple-A, Cavalli has walked 11.1% of batters but he’s getting hit hard due to subpar command that had led to a bloated 7.36 ERA and 1.50 WHIP so far in 22 innings. Is he still a top-100 prospect? Yes. But Cavalli’s dynasty stock is falling and I don’t see this trend reversing without gains in the command and control department.
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