Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Stock Report: Wright Hasn’t Been Wrong (2022)
In dynasty leagues, player values are constantly changing, and you need to stay on top of these changes to be successful long-term. That’s where this dynasty stock report comes in as I discuss four players each week, two on the rise and two falling, both at the MLB level and in the minors as well. This week’s report features a 2021 MVP finalist, a post-hype breakout arm, and a pair of outfield prospects trending in opposite directions.
MLB Riser: Kyle Wright (SP – ATL)
The Braves rotation was fronted by Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Ian Anderson entering the 2022 season. A very fine trio for sure. After them, the hope was that some combination of Huascar Ynoa, Kyle Wright, Kyle Muller, or Tucker Davidson could form a respectable back-end. The jury is still out on who will stick as the 5th starter in Atlanta, but Kyle Wright has stepped up in a big way and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball so far as we enter the month of May.
In four starts this season, Wright has dominated to the tune of a 1.13 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and a 37% strikeout rate. Those are all exceptional, but what has been equally as impressive has been Wright trimming his walk rate to a tidy 6.5%. Wildly inconsistent command and control was an issue for Wright throughout his minor league tenure and limited his effectiveness despite a dynamic arsenal. But now that he’s made massive strides in that department, Wright can fully unleash that arsenal this season through his first four starts.
Wright attacks hitters with a five-pitch mix, and four of those have been highly effective this season. Outside of his slider, Wright’s other four offerings (Four-Seam, Sinker, Curveball, Changeup) all have a BAA under .200, with the curveball and changeup recording a whiff rate above 40%. Overall, Wright has only allowed one barrel, and only 33.3% of BBE off Wright have been considered hard-hit. Assuming these command and control gains stick moving forward, Wright has the stuff to be a top-30 SP for dynasty purposes.
MLB Faller: Marcus Semien (2B/SS – TEX)
Coming off an excellent 2021 performance where he racked up 45 home runs, 102 RBI, 115 runs, and 15 steals in his lone season with Toronto, nearly everyone was calling for some level of regression from Marcus Semien this season. First off, many metrics signaled that he overperformed last season. And on top of that, Semien signing with the Texas Rangers meant he would be in a worse lineup and worse home ballpark this season. But while fantasy managers expected regression, Semien has pulled a complete 180 this season and has been arguably the biggest early-round disappointment through the first month of the season.
Any way you slice it, the numbers are terrible. On the surface, Semien has a .149/.224/.207 slash line with two steals and a whopping zero home runs. He’s still displaying a solid approach at the plate with his walk, strikeout, and zone contact rates in line with last season, but all of Semien’s quality of contact metrics have plummeted. Entering Monday, Semien’s 84.4 mpg AVG EV and 22.9% hard-hit rate ranked in the bottom-5% of qualified hitters, with his barrel rate in the bottom 24%. This season, we’ve seen power down across the league, and the middle-of-the-road power bats like Semien seem to be taking the biggest hit.
Semien’s dynasty stock is freefalling right now, and it’s questionable even to have him as a top-100 dynasty player anymore. Here’s to hoping you cashed out after last season’s offensive explosion.
MiLB Riser: Corbin Carroll (OF – ARI)
Bobby Witt Jr.and Julio Rodriguez will exhaust their prospect status within the next few weeks, leaving several prospects to duke it out for the title of new #1 overall prospect for fantasy purposes. While there’s no clearcut #1 option, one of the early favorites is Corbin Carroll, who has raised his already high dynasty stock even higher with a red hot start to the 2022 minor league season. In 18 games for Double-A Amarillo, Carroll has posted a stellar .347/.461/.611 slash line with 10 extra-base hits, four home runs, and seven steals. If you include his seven games last season before he got injured, Carroll now has six home runs in his previous 25 games after having just two in his first 42 minor league games back in 2019.
The development of his power has always been the X-Factor. Coming out of the 2019 draft, Carroll’s contact skills, approach, and speed were areas that no one could question. He’s consistently shown to be a plus hitter with elite speed that should settle in as a dynamic leadoff hitter down the road for Arizona. But the development of his power has been huge and gives Carroll early-round fantasy upside. We’re talking about a potential .290+ hitter that can flirt with a .400 OBP and eclipse 30 steals annually. If we add 20 homers into that, we will see Carroll being taken in the first round of fantasy drafts.
Yes, those are all lofty numbers and expectations in general, but that’s the kind of talent Carroll is, and we’re seeing him rise well inside of my top-100 overall dynasty rankings this season with the chance to crack my top-50 before too long.
MiLB Faller: Jasson Dominguez (OF – NYY)
While it’s no surprise that any prospect can’t live up to Mantle/Trout/Jackson comps, let’s put those aside for a second. It’s unfair to compare a 19-year-old prospect to three of the game’s all-time greats. Instead, let’s focus on what Jasson Dominguez has done, what he’s capable of doing, and how he should be valued for dynasty purposes. In his first 74 professional games, Dominguez’a slash line sits at .243/.325/.361 with only six home runs, 20 extra-base hits, and a .118 ISO. This season has been even worse with a .216/.237/.311 line and 26 strikeouts compared to only two walks in 76 plate appearances. Dominguez’s contact rate has been equally as uninspiring at 64.4%.
Let me be clear that Dominguez’s inclusion here doesn’t mean I’m saying he’s terrible or going to be a total bust. But many reports that I’ve seen and people I’ve talked to that have seen him live haven’t given glowing endorsements. One person I spoke to that has seen him live many times projected him as a good power bat but below-average in the hit tool and speed departments. His performance to date doesn’t do anything to disprove that notion either. Dominguez is no longer a top-50 prospect for fantasy purposes and is honestly closer to 100 than 50. His stock has already fallen a decent amount and will likely continue to slide even further unless he starts showing some promise at the plate.
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