As the embers of the 2022 NFL Draft begin to smolder and the smoke wafts away into the night sky, we turn our attention to the fallout of free agency and the draft. The major pieces of the franchises are in place, and we can begin to focus on preliminary drafting places for the upcoming season.

Although many things can change between now and the time we draft our fantasy rosters, it’s a good exercise to put your fingers on the pulse of the fantasy football drafting community. The best way to know what people are thinking of certain players is to examine Average Draft Position (ADP). After digging into the preseason Superflex ADP, here are a few things that caught my eye.

All ADP data comes from Underdog Fantasy.

Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE) in the second round?

Taking the first scan of the data, the thing that jumps right off the screen is Deshaun Watson’s ADP at 22 overall. That puts him at the end of the second round in 12-team leagues. This appears to be a major outlier due to the amount of unknown and risk surrounding him. His hype is strong right now after he was traded to the Cleveland Browns and signed a fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million contract. Under normal circumstances, he is a first-round pick in this scoring format, but Watson is not dealing with normal circumstances.

Watson is facing 22 separate civil lawsuits for alleged sexual assault of female masseuses in the Houston area. In his favor, two separate grand juries have declined to proceed with criminal litigation against him. It appears from a criminal standpoint that Watson will avoid any further prosecution. The issue with the civil cases is what happens under the NFL’s personal conduct policy. They have the ability to levy any punishment they see fit.

Another potential red flag waving around Watson’s current ADP is the precedent set by Major League Baseball and how they dealt with all-star pitcher, Trevor Bauer. Bauer was given a two-year suspension for sexual assault accusations. Even though they are different entities, that could put pressure on the NFL to match the punishment. If the discipline is that severe, your second-round pick was wasted. If the NFL decides to be less stringent, he is still facing a multiple-game suspension. Let Watson be somebody else’s problem at his current ADP.

Where are the first-round RBs?

In the Superflex format, the first round is flooded by quarterback picks. Even in this format, the all-important running back position always fills in the cracks left by the QBs. Except for so far this season, there are far fewer RBs going early. In the first round, only Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey are going in the top 10. So that would mean you would expect a big run on RBs in the second round. Except the pattern continues with only Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler rounding out the top 20. The third round contributes three more RBs, making a total of only seven running backs in the top 30 picks.

So far it appears fantasy drafters are proceeding with caution regarding the RBs. Last season had too many top running backs missing time due to injury. Those top players on your IR more than likely cost first-round draft capital. Rather than risk injury to your top pick, proceeding with a relatively safer wide receiver seems like the plan of the consensus.

Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR) is a first-round pick

Kupp has always been an underappreciated gem in the fantasy football world in PPR formats. He was easy to add to your squad without giving up a high pick and he helped your team year after year. Now if you want him in your wide receiver room, you’re going to pay up. Kupp exploded last season having new quarterback Matt Stafford throwing him the ball. Kupp ended up with 145 receptions, just under 2,000 yards, and 16 touchdowns.

Kupp’s illustrious season had him fall only 17 yards short of Calvin Johnson’s single-season record of 1,964 yards in 2012. Kupp did get an extra game to put up stats due to the season expansion, but he produced in the games he was required to play. Also notable was Kupp was only four receptions behind the all-time leader in Michael Thomas. It was truly a record-breaking season for him.

Preseason ADP

While it’s important to gauge player value during the spring and summer, it’s good to remember this is “preseason”. Too many things can and will change during the offseason between the NFL draft and your fantasy draft. Player values will rise and fall depending on any news updates throughout the offseason. Keep tabs on player ADP and be ready to adjust rankings accordingly.

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Gary Zamarripa is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Gary, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @garyzamFF.