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MLB Trade Value Risers & Fallers: Manny Machado, Zack Wheeler, Franmil Reyes (2022)

by Dan Harris | @danharris80 | Featured Writer
May 25, 2022
Zack Wheeler

Each week, FantasyPros publishes a fantasy baseball trade chart. The chart contains player values designed to help you assess the overall weight of both sides of a trade.

The weekly trade charts also keep track of the changes in a player’s value from the previous week. But sometimes, the reasons for a change aren’t obvious. “Why is player X gaining three points in value this week when player Y, who had an even better week, remained the same?”

Good question, reader. There are many answers as to why any given player moves in value from one week to the next. And in this article, we’ll examine some of the biggest risers and fallers each week, and explain the movement.

Here are some of the most notable risers and fallers in the FantasyPros Week 7 Trade Value Chart:

Risers

Manny Machado (3B – SD). Week 7 Value: 43. Previous Value: 36. Change: +7

Machado is having a preposterous season. Entering play on Tuesday, he was slashing .365/.440/.604. He led MLB in batting average, was fourth in runs scored, and had seven steals.

Above all else, the stolen bases are what necessitates Machado’s move up in value. Machado’s steals over the last nine seasons: 6, 2, 20, 0, 9, 14, 5, 6, and 12. Spoiler alert: his sprint speed hasn’t changed much at all over that span and certainly not drastically from one season to the next. And it’s just in the 36th or 37th percentile in MLB – he’s hardly a burner.

But he has enough speed and enough baserunning chops to steal 20 bags in a season pretty easily, and he just chooses not to. Until, apparently, this season.

Machado’s xBA is .304 and his xSLG is .510, so it’s certainly reasonable to expect some of his numbers to come down. But the steals? They’re a product of desire, and with Fernando Tatis Jr. not close to returning, Machado is likely going to continue to do everything he can to keep the Padres scoring runs. That includes swiping bags at every possible opportunity.

Zack Wheeler (SP – PHI). Week 7 Value: 34. Previous Value: 30. Change: +4

Pretty easy to figure this out, right? Wheeler was delayed in returning from shoulder soreness this spring, his velocity was down to begin the season, and now everything looks like it did last year. Sometimes this game really is that simple.

Wheeler had 11 strikeouts over his first three starts. He has 40 over his last five starts.

The velocity on his fastball in April was 95.1 miles per hour. In May, it’s 96.3 miles per hour.

In April, the spin rate on Wheeler’s slider was 2347 RPMs. In May, it’s 2437 RPMs.

This isn’t rocket science. Wheeler was one of the best pitchers in the game last year and looks like he is again after a slow start. He’ll continue to rise slowly with every meaningful outing.

Fallers

Franmil Reyes (DH – CLE). Week 7 Value: 7. Previous Value: 12. Change: -5

You desperately want to give a guy who popped 30 home runs in 115 games last year a pass for a slow start. Reyes has enormous power and is still among the league leaders in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage.

But he’s striking out nearly 40% of the time and he’s walking far less than he ever has. He’s swinging rarely at pitches in the zone and more than almost ever at pitches outside the zone.

Reyes’s issues certainly seem fixable. But he has three home runs and nine runs scored at the moment. There’s just no way for him to have significant trade value at this point.

Seiya Suzuki (OF – CHC). Week 7 Value: 8. Previous Value: 13. Change: -5

Suzuki had the opposite type of beginning to his MLB career than one would expect. He had no adjustment period and hit the ground running, but subsequently totally collapsed.

In April: .279/.405/.529 with four home runs, 13 runs scored, 14 RBI, a 16.7% walk rate, and a 27.4% strikeout rate.

In May: .213/.284/.361 with no home runs, six runs scored, five RBI, a 9% walk rate, and a 35.8% strikeout rate.

Which one is the real Suzuki? Probably somewhere in between. But what we do know for sure is that the April version of him that we saw is not the real one. And his value must be adjusted accordingly.

CTAs


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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.

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