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NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Thursday (5/12)

May 12, 2022
Luka Doncic

These playoffs have been remarkable. There’s usually a team that looks like the clear favorite, but there’s no such thing here. On the contrary, any of the eight teams remaining could win the championship (except Memphis after the injury). You can’t ask for any more as an NBA fan, so let’s take a look at these critical Game 6s!

We’re finally dipping into some elimination games! Both of these series have been tight thus far, but not many of the games have been close. In fact, the home team has won all 10 games between these two matchups, and that trend will have to continue if these series go on to seven games! With that in mind, let’s look at the schedule, odds, and injuries!

Schedule and Odds

MIA at PHI (PHI -2.5) O/U: 207.5
Game 5 was ugly. Miami beat Philadelphia, 120-85, to take a 3-2 series lead.

PHX at DAL (PHX -1.5) O/U: 214
Phoenix smashed Dallas in Game 5, 110-80. That gives them a 3-2 series lead, winning 12 of their last 14 games over the Mavericks in total.

Check out our consensus game odds as well as the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros >>

Injury Report

Core Plays

Jimmy Butler (SF/PF – MIA): $9,800 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
Jimmy Buckets doesn’t need any more reason to be motivated, but a closeout game on the road should have him feeling it. This guy has been feeling it for a while, scoring at least 51 DraftKings points in six of his last eight games. It should be seven, but he was held to 45 DK points on Tuesday because Miami won by 35 points. That won’t be the case here, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Jimmy play 45 minutes in this closeout game.

Deandre Ayton (C – PHX): $7,000 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
Ayton has been inconsistent recently, but this matchup is too good to fade him. Dallas has one of the worst frontcourts in the NBA, and Deandre should feast every time they play. With that said, Ayton has scored at least 31 DraftKings points in 17 of his last 21 games, generating a 35-point average in that span. As long as he keeps that average going, Ayton is too cheap on both sites.

Cash Game Considerations

Luka Doncic (PG – DAL): $11,500 DraftKings, $11,700 FanDuel
Luka is the best play in fantasy right now. The superstar guard is flirting with a 40 percent usage rate in this postseason, regularly taking 25-30 shots while playing 40 minutes a night. That’s led to Doncic scoring at least 53 DK points in 16 straight outings, totaling a 57-point average in that stretch. That should make him a lock in every lineup because you can’t fade a guaranteed 50 DK points on a two-game slate.

Joel Embiid (PF/C – PHI): $9,700 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel
Embiid was horrible in the Game 5 defeat, but this is still one of the most reliable options in fantasy. The big man has scored at least 28 fantasy points in every game this season, surpassing 36 DK points in all but four outings. Getting that guaranteed production on a two-game slate is massive, and you know Embiid will step up in Philly’s first elimination game of the season.

GPP Targets

Max Strus (SG/SF – MIA): $5,100 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
Strus was spectacular in Game 5. This guy stole Duncan Robinson‘s role and rewarded Miami with 19 points and 10 rebounds across 28 minutes in that victory. He’s been playing great for weeks, posting a 23-point average across 29 minutes a night over his last 15 games played. That’s all you can ask for from a player this cheap, and it makes Strus a great pairing with studs like Doncic, Booker, and Embiid.

Dorian Finney-Smith (SF/PF – DAL): $5,500 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
Finney-Smith struggled in Game 5, but so did everyone else on this Dallas roster. With that said, he still played 36 minutes. That’s what matters, with Finney-Smith playing at least 36 minutes in 10 of his last 11 games. He’s posting a 40-minute average in that span, averaging over 25 DraftKings points per game. It’s tough to overlook such an affordable player playing 40 minutes, and that alone makes him one of the best GPP plays out there. His home numbers are even more encouraging, with Finney-Smith averaging 29 DK points per game across his last seven home games.

Value Plays

Victor Oladipo (PG/SG – MIA): $5,600 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
Why is Oladipo still so cheap? This has been one of Miami’s most valuable players for three weeks now, and we know this guy can play at a $7K level on any given night. He’s been doing that recently, averaging 30 DK points per game across his last seven outings. Good luck finding that from another player in this price range, and his role could rise even more with so many Heat players nicked up.

Gabe Vincent (PG/SG – MIA): $4,400 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
This play is predicated on the status of Lowry, but if the former Toronto guard is out as expected, Vincent should be in every lineup out there. He’s started 32 games for Lowry this season, averaging nearly 25 fantasy points per game. That’s quite the total from such a cheap player, playing 30 minutes a night as well. Any starting point guard playing 30 minutes should never be this inexpensive!

Advantageous Pricing

  • Jimmy Butler (SF/PF – MIA): $9,800 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel
  • Victor Oladipo (PG/SG – MIA): $5,600 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel
  • Maxi Kleber (PF/C – DAL): $5,200 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel
  • Max Strus (SG/SF – MIA): $5,100 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel

CTAs


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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.

DFS, DraftKings, FanDuel, Featured, Featured Link, NBA