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Overvalued & Undervalued Rookies in Dynasty Rookie Drafts (2022 Fantasy Football)

by Derek Brown | @dbro_ffb | Featured Writer
May 14, 2022


 
It’s a wonderful time to be alive. Drink it in dynasty degenerates. It’s rookie draft season. Christmas in May for dynasty league managers. As drafts pop off daily and average draft position (ADP) has taken shape, there are some exploitable edges, with some players getting steamed up and others being overlooked. Today I present three players on each side of the coin. Whether you want to be the lovable villain of your dynasty league or a value stealing crook like Two-Face, you’ll always come out heads up in your rookie draft with this list.

Andrew Erickson Mock Draft

*All Rookie Dynasty ADP per DLF May ADP*

Undervalued Rookies

Isaiah Spiller (RB – LAC) ADP: 2.06

Isaiah Spiller could easily have a role in the Bolts’ offense from the jump as a running mate to Austin Ekeler. The Chargers have been unable to find a suitable replacement alongside Ekeler since Melvin Gordon left. Spiller could be that guy. Inside of an offense that was fifth in points per game and ninth in points per play last year, there are plenty of scoring chances to spread around.

It’s not inconceivable that an offense with this type of firepower can support two top 24-36 options at the running back position. Spiller has gone as high as the 1.12 in some drafts, but he does slip to the 2.08-2.11 range in others. He shouldn’t be drafted behind Rachaad White or even arguably Dameon Pierce. I’ll happily scoop him up in the early second round.

Tyrion Davis-Price (RB – SF) ADP: 2.11

Trey Sermon’s first-round post-traumatic stress is real. Dynasty drafters are avoiding Tyrion Davis-Price like the plague in some spots. He is consistently slipping to the back end of the second round, but also as far as the late third round (3.11). This is too far for a running back who was drafted in the third round of the NFL Draft. If Elijah Mitchell could walk into camp and steal the job last year, we can’t rule out that Davis-Price could do the same thing in 2022.

This isn’t a knock on Mitchell but more of a testament that Kyle Shanahan has no issues parking last year’s producers in the doghouse the following season. Ask Dante Pettis and Brandon Aiyuk how that feels. Aiyuk was able to see the light of day again, but we also know how it worked out for Pettis. Don’t sleep on Davis-Price, who tested well for a back his size (6-foot-0 and 219 pounds) with a 77th percentile 40-yard dash and 73rd percentile 10-yard split time. Don’t let him leave the second round or get selected after Zamir White, Tyler Allgeier or Brian Robinson.

Hassan Haskins (RB – TEN) ADP: 3.09

Is Hasaan Haskins an accomplished pass catcher? No. he racked up only 24 receptions in his three years at Michigan. What he can do is play bully ball as the dollar store, Derrick Henry, if Henry were to go down. Last year the unthinkable happened. We learned that Henry is human, after all. While I’m not projecting an injury for the hulking Tennessee thunder, we can’t rule out that the enormous workload is starting to catch up with the one player we thought could be impervious to such things.

At Michigan, Haskins finished with a respectable 3.35 yards after contact per attempt as a gap scheme mauler. With only Dontrell Hilliard likely to compete for snaps behind Derrick Henry, the pathway to a role is easy to envision. Henry is entering his age-28 season and is slated to become an unrestricted free agent in 2024. I’ll take the shot on Haskins in the mid-third and over players like Jelani Woods, Velus Jones, and Romeo Doubs, to name a few.

Overvalued Rookies

Rachaad White (RB – TB) ADP: 2.02

While Rachaad White could have a wheels-up scenario if Leonard Fournette were to miss time, there’s also a frightening downside to selecting White this early. Fournette just inked a brand new three-year deal with the Buccaneers. So yes, Tampa Bay could get out of the deal and cut Fournette as soon as next season and save approximately 3.3 million against the cap, but they could also keep him. As long as Tom Brady remains under center and this team is in full-on compete mode, Fournette could be by his side.

This could leave White stuck in the A.J. Dillon corollary where he is parked on the bench or as the lesser part of a committee until the final year of his rookie deal. As a 23-year-old rookie, this is more damning than a rusher entering the league at 21 years old. But, on the other hand, White’s upside makes him a good player to get exposure to. Still, the downside scenario also leaves me drafting Isaiah Spiller and many of the round two draft capital wide receivers over White.

Zamir White (RB – LVR) ADP: 2.09

While I’m not standing on my soapbox for Tyler Allgeier, I won’t be drafting Zamir White ahead of him. White is also going ahead of Tyrion Davis-Price, another rookie draft misstep. White’s former five-star prospect status, testing numbers, and the Georgia helmet are propping him up. White had a pitiful 27.2% breakaway rate in college (per PFF) with the worst yards after contact per attempt by any rusher charted by Graham Barfield of FantasyPoints since 2016. He was greatly helped by his collegiate offensive line as Barfield also found that he had the sixth-highest yards before contact per attempt of any rusher since 2016. White’s a two-down grinder back I’ll happily avoid in drafts.

John Metchie (WR – HOU)  ADP: 2.03

John Metchie is currently being drafted ahead of players like David Bell, Isaiah Spiller, and other second-round wide receivers with better analytical profiles. I’ll drop Alec Pierce and Wan’Dale Robinson in the queue before I would even look at Metchie. Metchie bombs the collegiate production boxes across the board with a 29th percentile college dominator and 32nd percentile breakout age. Yes, Metchie had talented receivers to contend with yearly, but his 2.22 yards per route run at Alabama also speaks to a player who didn’t have the talent to earn more targets each season (per PFF). Metchie feels like a floor pick who will be a better NFL player than a fantasy option.

CTAs


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