Average Draft Position referenced using FantasyPros consensus ADP

1-QB Leagues

Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA)
ADP: QB14

Even before the trade of Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins, the hype surrounding Tua Tagovailoa was gaining steam. He had a new coach in Mike McDaniel that was brought in to specifically unlock Tagovailoa’s potential. Jaylen Waddle, Miami’s 2021 first-round pick, would have another season under his belt while Miami also loaded up on running backs in Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert.

After the trade of Hill, that hype just exploded. Tagovailoa would have one of the elite – and fastest – receivers to throw it to as often as he liked. Then we saw the Tweet and were reminded of the physical limitations Tua still has. No matter who is running around, he still needs the arm to get them the ball. Let’s also not forget that new Dolphins coach McDaniel’s only season as a coordinator resulted in Jimmy Garoppolo finishing outside the top-12 quarterbacks in fantasy scoring despite having All-World receiver Deebo Samuel.

Both of these are reasons you should NOT rely on him to be your quarterback in QB1 leagues.

Derek Carr (QB – LV)
ADP: QB13

Another beneficiary of the great wide receiver shuffle of 2022 was Derek Carr. A trade for Davante Adams came out of nowhere and paired up the Fresno State teammates who last played together in 2013.

It seems like a slam dunk that Carr should improve his stats with Adams in the fold. He totaled over 4,800 yards last year and 23 touchdowns while throwing to a hodgepodge of pass-catchers like Hunter Renfrow and an oft-injured Darren Waller. Surely adding Adams would guarantee a QB1 fantasy season for Carr, right?

But this isn’t the first time Carr has had a solid receiving corps and good receivers around. He had two-1,000-yard receivers in 2016 with Amari Cooper – who made the Pro Bowl that year – and late-career Michael Crabtree but finished on the QB1/2 line, depending on your fantasy scoring. His current ADP of 13th might be palatable, but it will also inch higher as training camp gets closer and we see some hype videos of him throwing bombs to Adams. Don’t buy it.

Superflex Leagues

Daniel Jones (QB – NYG)
ADP: QB25

If there’s a glimmer of hope for Giants quarterback Daniel Jones, it’s in new coach Brian Daboll. Daboll is widely credited with turning the raw Josh Allen into MVP candidate Josh Allen while in Buffalo. It’s a tall order, but there are few coaches who you could want more in New York.

But Jones has a lot of red flags. It’s never a good sign when a young quarterback’s best career season was their rookie season, and it’s also not a good sign if a quarterback has never played an entire (now) 17-game season. Jones is guilty of both, and, despite the Giants not drafting his successor in the 2022 NFL Draft, they did sign veteran Tyrod Taylor. You better believe the Giants faithful will be clamoring for a change if (when) Jones starts to struggle and the Giants are losing.

In short, the writing is on the wall for Jones. The Giants didn’t pick up his option, which means he’ll play out his contract his year and gives the Giants no incentive to develop him anymore. All signs point to Jones not finishing the season out as a starter which means his role as a Superflex option is in serious doubt.

Marcus Mariota (QB – ATL)
ADP: QB27

It looked like the Falcons quarterback job in 2022 was Marcus Mariota’s for about a month. He was signed in the off-season to replace longtime quarterback Matt Ryan after the latter’s trade to Indianapolis. Mariota was adequate over two years of spot duty for Raiders quarterback Derek Carr and hooked up with former Titans offensive coordinator / now Falcons Head Coach Arthur Smith. Then the draft happened, and – unlike Daniel Jones in New York – the Falcons did draft their quarterback of the future or at least a quarterback for the soon-to-be-future. Atlanta drafted Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder in the third round, making him the second quarterback taken. Mariota wasn’t signed to big money so expect the Falcons to see what they have in Ridder as soon as it makes sense.

For Mariota, it’s not that he’s been bad over his career, just not particularly good. In the four seasons he was a starter with Tennessee, he finished well within the top-24 quarterbacks in fantasy scoring, and he never finished higher than 13th, either. So we have a quarterback with a low ceiling and a team with very little motivation to see what they have in the veteran over the rookie. It’s not ideal.

Rookies

Matt Corral (QB – CAR)
ADP: QB37

Unlike the Falcons situation referenced above, the Panthers have $18 million reasons to play incumbent Sam Darnold. Hindsight is 20/20, but they mistakenly picked up Darnold’s option last year, which means they’re stuck with his contract for this year. For Matt Corral, the Panthers did trade up for him, so the desire is there to see him play. But it’s hard to envision Corral giving the Panthers a better chance than Darnold to win. The same supporting cast is back, including DJ Moore and a rebounding Christina McCaffrey. But the coaching staff that ran the offense into the ground is essentially still there. There is one exception – instead of the outcoached Joe Brady, the Panthers now have Ben McAdoo. He Carolina hopes will produce the results he did as a coordinator (when he helmed two top-10 offenses) and not a coach (where he never finished in the top-20). There’s not just a lot to like, especially for a rookie coming in like Corral.

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