We looked at players whose expected statistics differed significantly from their actual numbers in the past two weeks. The two metrics were wOBA — weighted on-base average — and slugging percentage. The third number often associated with expected ratios is used in almost every fantasy baseball league: batting average.

Some formats have moved from batting average to on-base percentage, but the vast majority — especially those listed as “standard” — lean on batting average as one of the main categories. Even if it does not pertain directly, we can, again, look at the discrepancy between the surface numbers and what lies beneath them.

Actual vs. Expected Batting Average – Batters

Below is a table of batters sorted by difference between xBA and BA to identify the players who have the most significant gap. Players with at least 70 batted balls in play were used. For batters, a negative difference is better, suggesting a positive correction. For reference, the league averages as of the time this table was created are .232 BA, .251 xBA, and a -0.019 difference.

Notes

• Jesse Winker is solidifying himself as the poster child for these articles. Not only was he mentioned in a previous installment, but he was also highlighted as one of the players with a positive correction in his future. Two weeks have passed since that article was written, and he remains a top candidate for improvement. Look at how vast the difference is between what he is doing and what he should be doing, and note that he would be among the best hitters in the game if he were actually delivering to his .322 xBA. Instead, he’s hitting under .200. If possible, I would be trying to add Winker at a low cost.
• Whit Merrifield and Nelson Cruz follow Winker as the next two players most underperforming relative to their current batting averages. Still, the future is not necessarily as bright for this pair. Even if Merrifield and Cruz improve as anticipated, they would only be slightly above the league’s current batting average. As always, the direction of the move is important — so Merrifield and Cruz have potential — but let’s not ask for a complete recovery to the point that either is surging past .300.
• Andrew Benintendi may be the aforementioned Merrifield’s teammate, but he is at risk of moving in the complete opposite direction. What’s worse for Benintendi is that his decline might be severe. He’s currently hitting almost 100 points higher than his expected batting average, and he is the definition of “overperforming” by that account. Only one other player has a “difference” between BA and xBA of at least 0.070, and it’s Manny Machado. However, Machado is in a separate category as his xBA is still so high that regression is natural and should not destroy his fantasy value.
• I always like to close out a section with players performing at a high level and showing signs that they will remain there. Ty France is the clear leader in that department, as his BA and xBA are aligned and extremely high. This is what we would want to see in a breakout candidate, and France fits the mold. Freddie Freeman and George Springer are two more players who deserve recognition in this area, although to a much lesser degree than France.

Actual vs. Expected Batting Average – Pitchers

Below is a table of pitchers sorted by difference between xBA and BA to identify the players who have the most significant gap. Players with at least 70 batted balls in play were used. For pitchers, a positive difference is better, suggesting a positive correction. For reference, the league averages as of the time this table was created are .232 BA, .251 xBA, and a -0.019 difference.

Notes

• I wrote about Jesse Winker as a mainstay in these articles, but it looks like I might need to copy and paste Mitch Keller‘s name every week. He’s here again, and he’s underperforming again. And he’s showing signs that he could improve. Again. It isn’t inspiring, though, as he will need to put together the numbers on the surface sometime soon before all hope is lost with him — both on the Pittsburgh Pirates and for fantasy managers. Still, keep him on your radar just in case he finally makes the necessary strides.
• We usually can’t ask for too much from a pitcher whose home ballpark is in Colorado, but Antonio Senzatela is an interesting case. He is due for a positive correction as per the “difference” we see in the chart, but the number to which he would move is still frighteningly high. The best way to use this information is probably to streak Senzatela into a lineup when he is pitching on the road. This isn’t noteworthy in itself — plenty of people look to stream pitchers and avoid hitter-friendly ballparks — but the positive for Senzatela is that we can foresee some improvement.
• I’m disappointed, but Logan Gilbert has now shifted to the bottom of the chart. Why “disappointed”? Because Gilbert was listed in the first article in this series as someone who had performed well and indicated that he would continue along that path. Now, he is arguably overextended to the point that, if he were to regress, it could be too severe in the wrong direction.
• The good news is that Kyle Wright was listed in the same section as the aforementioned Gilbert two weeks ago, and Wright has been absolutely dominant this season. Nothing has changed for him and his underlying numbers, as he is giving all the signals of a player who is on the brink of a tremendous season. Joe Musgrove and Kevin Gausman are two other players who fall into the same category, albeit to a lesser extent than Wright.

Have something you want me to cover in this space or just want to talk baseball? Feel free to reach out on Twitter @MarioMergola with questions or requests.

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Mario Mergola is a featured writer at FantasyPros and BettingPros and the creator and content editor of Sporfolio. For more from Mario, check out his archive and follow him @MarioMergola.