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By The Numbers: Alex Cobb, Jonah Heim, Kole Calhoun (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

By The Numbers: Alex Cobb, Jonah Heim, Kole Calhoun (2022 Fantasy Baseball)

Fantasy baseball leagues are often won via the waiver wire. Managers who find diamonds in the rough can add crucial pieces to their teams, pushing them into playoff or championship contention.

Many fantasy managers will add players on hot streaks and then drop them when things go south, so it becomes extra important to find players on waivers that can contribute long-term.

Using roster percentages provided by FantasyPros.com, this column will identify three available players on waivers who managers should immediately add for the long haul.

FantasyPros My Playbook

Alex Cobb (SP – SF) 2.87 SIERA

On the surface, Alex Cobb looks like a terrible pitcher, with a 5.62 ERA, which is surely a major reason he is rostered in just 27% of ESPN leagues and 41% of Yahoo leagues. In reality, he is the poster child for positive regression, and one statistic that helps make this clear is his 2.87 SIERA.

SIERA is an advanced ERA metric that factors in a pitcher’s strikeout, walk, and groundball rate and considers the type of ball that a pitcher puts into play – something that FIP and xFIP do not do. Of all the advanced ERA metrics, SIERA is the most predictive in terms of projections.

To simplify, if a pitcher induces a high number of strikeouts and groundballs and limits walks well, their SIERA will be low.

That said, Alex Cobb has a 10.5 K/9 rate, 2.88 BB/9 rate, and a 62% GB rate. Clearly, he is performing well at the things that are largely in his control, yet it has not been reflected in his ERA…yet.

BABIP HR/FB LOB% GB% K/9 BB/9 ERA SIERA Barrel% HH%
Cobb .381 19.2% 55.6% 62% 10.5 2.88 5.62 2.87 2.9 30
Lg. Avg. .287 11.3 71.9% 43% 8.4 3.18 4.00 3.89 7.7% 38.4%

This is the right time to add the veteran righty if he is available. In addition to a low SIERA suggesting improvement is coming, Cobb has a 2.59 xFIP. Other data that suggests positive regression includes a .381 BABIP, a 19.2% home run rate, and a very low 55.6% LOB rate.

Additionally, Cobb has limited hard contact well, allowing a 2.9% barrel rate and a 33% hard-hit rate while inducing a -1.1 degree launch angle.

Cobb is a must-add right now.

Jonah Heim (TEX – C) 121 wRC+

Among catchers with at least 170 plate appearances, Heim has the fourth-highest wRC+. He sits behind only Willson Contreras, Alejandro Kirk, and Will Smith. It is a wonder why he is rostered in just 42% of Yahoo leagues and 44% of ESPN leagues.

Heim is one of three catchers with at least 170 PAs that are above league average in strikeout rate, batting average, OBP, SLG, wOBA, wRC+, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, chase rate, overall contact rate, and swSTR rate. The other two are Alejandro Kirk and Will Smith. Kirk is rostered in 79% of ESPN leagues and 87% of Yahoo leagues, while Smith is rostered in 100% of both ESPN and Yahoo leagues.

K% AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Barrel% HH% Chase% Contact% swSTR%
Lg. Avg. Catcher 23.90% 0.22 0.292 0.361 0.29 86 7.4 37.2 32.8 75.7 11.6
Kirk 10.20% 0.304 0.395 0.473 0.379 148 9.1 42.1 27.8 87.3 5.3
Smith 15.50% 0.249 0.345 0.434 0.341 122 11.5 43.9 22.7 84.6 6.4
Heim 20.30% 0.247 0.305 0.469 0.335 121 7.9 40.2 29.7 79.2 10.5

Heim gets the majority of the playing time behind the plate in Texas. He should be trusted as a potential top-5 catcher the rest of the way, especially since his offensive production is nearly identical to Will Smith, a consensus top player at the position.

Kole Calhoun (ARI – OF) .271 xBA

If Alex Cobb is the pitching poster child for positive regression, Calhoun is the hitting version. Calhoun is rostered in just 7% of ESPN and 11% of Yahoo leagues, likely due to a .228 batting average.

Digging deeper, one can see that something good should be coming to Calhoun in the near future.

The outfielder has a .277 BABIP compared to a career .285 BABIP but has increased his line drive rate to 27%, supporting a higher BABIP. Considering that, one can reasonably expect Calhoun’s batting average to improve, and a .271 xBA proves this is not only possible but probable.

Other expected metrics like a .356 xwOBA versus a .293 wOBA point to this as well. All of the projections systems on Fangraphs see Calhoun as an above-average player over the rest of the season, projecting him for over 100 wRC+.

Finally, Calhoun has been hitting the ball incredibly well and incredibly hard, posting a 12.2% barrel rate (better than Paul Goldschmidt, Mookie Betts, Bo Bichette, and Jose Ramirez) and a 47% hard-hit rate (better than Shohei Ohtani, Pete Alonso, Paul Goldschmidt, and Jose Ramirez).


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