MLB Trade Value Risers & Fallers: Alejandro Kirk, Yordan Alvarez, Lance Lynn (2022)
Each week, FantasyPros publishes a fantasy baseball trade chart. The chart contains player values designed to help you assess the overall weight of both sides of a trade.
The weekly trade charts also keep track of the changes in a player’s value from the previous week. But sometimes, the reasons for a change aren’t obvious. “Why is player X gaining three points in value this week when player Y, who had an even better week, remained the same?”
Good question, reader. There are many answers as to why any given player moves in value from one week to the next. And in this article, we’ll examine some of the biggest risers and fallers each week, and explain the movement.
Here are some of the most notable risers and fallers in the FantasyPros Week 12 Trade Value Chart:
Alejandro Kirk (C – TOR). Week 12 Value: 8. Previous Value: 4. Change: +4
Alejandro Kirk is just spectacular. In every way. He strikes out 9.7% of the time, which is in the top two percent of MLB. He walks 12.3% of the time. He’s batting .322 and that is WORSE than his xBA (.330). He rarely swings at pitches outside of the zone. He bats in the middle of an outstanding offense.
Oh, right, and he’s a catcher.
There are few catchers in the game who can do what Kirk can do. Hit for an elite average. And elite power. And almost never slump.
The only thing keeping Kirk’s value remotely in check is his slow April. But considering he wasn’t playing every day, even giving that much weight is silly. He’s on the verge of being valued as a top-two catcher.
Yordan Alvarez (OF – HOU). Week 12 Value: 35. Previous Value: 29. Change: +6.
To be fair, Alvarez’s rise in value is more like a few points, as he saw an artificial drop last week after his status was uncertain after leaving the previous game with some sort of undisclosed hand/wrist injury. But that turned out to be nothing and now he’s hit five home runs over the last six games that he started.
Alvarez is silly. Take Pete Alonso’s power and combine it with Luis Arraez’s batting average. Players like that shouldn’t exist. But they do in Alvarez.
His lowest batting average in any month this season is .317. He’s second in the league in average exit velocity. He’s fourth in barrel rate. He walks 12.6% of the time.
Alvarez’s power surge over his last week only helps to solidify his status as one of the truly elite players for fantasy purposes. Value him accordingly.
Jose Berrios (SP – TOR). Week 12 Value: 8. Previous Value: 12. Change: -4
Berrios has been in this article before when he dropped in value, and is the first ever player to appear in it twice. To be fair, that’s only because he had rebuilt much of his lost value, after a three-start stretch during which he allowed six total runs and struck out 26.
But that was just a brief interlude in what has been a disastrous season for the veteran. He has a 5.86 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. The following metrics for Berrios rank in the bottom seven percent of the league: average exit velocity, xBA, xSLG, xWOBA, xWOBAcon, hard hit percentage, and xERA. And his 18.8% strikeout rate is his worst since his rookie year.
Berrios is giving up an incredible amount of hard contact. He isn’t striking batters out. There are no signs that things are getting better. His value, even at this new lowered level, may still be too high.
Lance Lynn (SP – CWS). Week 12 Value: 16. Previous Value: 13. Change: -3
Lynn has performed poorly since returning from the IL, of course. He has a 6.19 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, and his velocity is down more than a mile per hour. At age 35, it’s entire possible that this is the end of the road for the burly veteran. Hence, the drop in value.
But this isn’t the titanic drop in value that his numbers suggest may be warranted. Because there are signs that things are not as bad as they seem. Lynn’s 15.2% swinging strike rate is a career best, as is his 28% CSW rate. His 4.1% walk rate is similarly the best he’s ever shown by a large margin, and his xFIP is just 3.32.
Still, Lynn is giving up a ton of hard contact, as his 5.08 xERA shows, so we can’t just write away all his struggles. But because things may not be as dire as they seem, be cautious about dropping him too far in trade value.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy baseball, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. From our Lineup Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.