Last season, we saw former college teammates Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase and Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle find immediate success in their first seasons together in the NFL. “Shower Narrative” is a phrase popularized by Adam Levitan that suggests college teammates, specifically QB-WR batteries, who had success in college are likely to be similarly successful at the NFL level.
The Bengals and Dolphins drafted all four of the players mentioned above, but the Raiders and Cardinals looked to the trade market this offseason in an attempt to find similar connections. Las Vegas acquired WR Davante Adams to pair with former Fresno State teammate Derek Carr, while Arizona traded for WR Marquise Brown to catch passes from former Oklahoma teammate Kyler Murray.
Let’s take a look at the best shower narratives around the NFL and evaluate what their fantasy impact might be this season.
Derek Carr (QB – LV) and Davante Adams (WR – LV)
Derek Carr Projections
| PASS CMP | PASS ATT | PASS YDS | PASS TDS | PASS INTS | RUSH ATT | RUSH YDS | RUSH TDS | FUMBLES | POINTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 403.2 | 598.5 | 4525.5 | 27.3 | 13.1 | 39.1 | 133.4 | 1.2 | 4.9 | 287.6 |
The biggest winner in the aftermath of the Davante Adams trade is Derek Carr. He now has the luxury of throwing to a surplus of offensive weapons including arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL in his old college teammate.
Let’s not forget that when Carr had everybody available last season, the Raiders quarterback ranked second in the NFL in passing yards and 15th in fantasy points per game. However, his ceiling was limited due to his lack of mobility and weaponry; Carr did not finish better than a top-8 quarterback at any point in 2021.
But Adams figures to provide Carr with a red-zone weapon like no other that will unlock his fantasy ceiling. He’s the exact positive touchdown regression that should launch Carr’s fantasy numbers. Carr’s 3.7 TD rate in 2021 was below his career average (4.3). And his 23 total passing touchdowns were seven below expectation.
Fully anticipate Carr throwing for 30-plus laser scores bare minimum with Adams at his disposal. Every quarterback last season that threw for at least 30 touchdowns finished inside the top-10 in 2021.
– Andrew Erickson
Derek Carr has one top-5 weekly finish since 2019.
And he scored a rushing TD in that game (Week 13, 2020)
Can Davante Adams unlock his fantasy ceiling?
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) May 24, 2022
Davante Adams Projections
| RUSH ATT | RUSH YDS | RUSH TDS | RECS | REC YDS | REC TDS | FUMBLES | POINTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 106.6 | 1324.5 | 8.4 | 0.7 | 181.4 |
A healthy Davante Adams has finished no worse than WR5 attached to Aaron Rodgers since 2018, and he ended 2021 third in fantasy points per game at age 29.
Adams’ high level of play won’t stop in Las Vegas, but his fantasy stock does get slightly dented going from Rodgers to Derek Carr. It’s unlikely that Carr hyper-targets Adams to the length of a 28% target share as Rodgers has done for so many seasons. Incumbent Raiders pass-catchers Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow represent more target competition than Adams has ever played with since becoming the alpha in Green Bay.
– Andrew Erickson
2022 Fantasy Football Staff Consensus Rankings
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