Last season, we saw former college teammates Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase and Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle find immediate success in their first seasons together in the NFL. “Shower Narrative” is a phrase popularized by Adam Levitan that suggests college teammates, specifically QB-WR batteries, who had success in college are likely to be similarly successful at the NFL level.
The Bengals and Dolphins drafted all four of the players mentioned above, but the Raiders and Cardinals looked to the trade market this offseason in an attempt to find similar connections. Las Vegas acquired WR Davante Adams to pair with former Fresno State teammate Derek Carr, while Arizona traded for WR Marquise Brown to catch passes from former Oklahoma teammate Kyler Murray.
Let’s take a look at the best shower narratives around the NFL and evaluate what their fantasy impact might be this season.
- Shower Narrative: Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase
- Shower Narrative: Derek Carr and Davante Adams
- Shower Narrative: Kyler Murray and Marquise Brown
Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA) and Jaylen Waddle (WR – MIA)
Tua Tagovailoa Projections
| PASS CMP | PASS ATT | PASS YDS | PASS TDS | PASS INTS | RUSH ATT | RUSH YDS | RUSH TDS | FUMBLES | POINTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 379.7 | 574.8 | 4036.2 | 25.5 | 14.5 | 55.6 | 197.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 281.9 |
Somebody on the Miami Dolphins is in for a rude awakening come September. Mike Gesicki, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are all being pushed up the rankings/draft boards with hopes that Tua Tagovailoa takes a massive step forward in Year 3 under first-year head coach Mike McDaniel.
I am not as optimistic that Tagovailoa can be the vehicle to deliver fantasy goodness to all these pieces in South Beach because this offense is going to be run-heavy. McDaniel made his way up the coaching ranks under Kyle Shanahan as a standout run-game coordinator. And should he follow in the footsteps of Shanahan as the offensive mastermind in Miami, fantasy managers should expect a lot of rushing and YAC schemes.
49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 29th in aDOT in 2021 (7.6) after ranking 39th and 35th in the category the two years prior. Tagovailoa’s aDOT was 34th in the league (7.6) in 2021.
Jimmy G’s most productive seasons have seen him average just north of 16 fantasy points per game – good for QB17 in 2021. Tagovailoa has yet to eclipse 14 fantasy points per game two years into his career. He also ranked 31st in throwing at the intermediate level (62.5 PFF grade) among 37 qualifying passers last season.
So although Tua is viewed as a popular late-round quarterback among fantasy circles, I have to admit I won’t be pulling the trigger on him in 1QB redraft formats. Especially with his brutal early schedule. New England, Baltimore and Buffalo are hardly the stream-worthy spots you will be confident in starting the southpaw QB. In the Dolphins quarterback’s four combined starts versus those teams in 2021, his fantasy finishes were QB23, QB24, QB18 and QB16.
– Andrew Erickson
conversely Miami has BEEN one of the most pass-heavy offenses last two seasons. In yet Tua Tagovailoa has yet to eclipse 14 fantasy points per game two years into his career.
New HC and former 49ers run-game coordinator Mike McDaniel probably won't throw more.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) June 17, 2022
Jaylen Waddle Projections
| RUSH ATT | RUSH YDS | RUSH TDS | RECS | REC YDS | REC TDS | FUMBLES | POINTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.6 | 20 | 0.7 | 92.9 | 1014.7 | 6.4 | 1 | 144 |
Jaylen Waddle looked primed to make the leap into the top-12 conversation after a stellar rookie season. Along with breaking Anquan Boldin’s rookie reception record, Waddle commanded a 22% target share and 24% target rate per route run – 18th-best in the NFL.
But with the expensive addition of veteran Tyreek Hill, it is less likely that Waddle is the clear-cut No. 1 receiver in Miami. Hill is coming off a season where he commanded the league’s seventh-highest target rate per route run (27%). The trade moves Waddle down from a fringe WR1 to mid-range fantasy WR2 after seeing almost zero target competition last season.
– Andrew Erickson
2022 Fantasy Football Staff Consensus Rankings
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