Recently, Andrew Erickson looked at the benefits of targeting players on good offenses. This can help your fantasy draft strategy. Let’s take a look at the Buccaneers and profiles for the players to target on their offense.
Targeting Players on Good Offenses: Buccaneers
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS – MEAN ADP (72)
When looking to gain access to the league’s most fantasy-friendly offenses, there’s no better way to do so than by drafting that team’s quarterback. Tom Brady is the QB9 per ADP after finishing last season third in points per game (22.7) as PFF’s second-highest graded quarterback. There’s no reason to bet on him not playing at a high level in 2022 even at age 45.
Especially with how pass-heavy the Buccaneers are with the GOAT under center, which creates a surplus of opportunities for Brady and company to rack up fantasy points.
TB12 led the NFL in attempts (42/game) and passing yards (312/game). Tampa Bay owns the third-highest neutral game script pass play rate on early downs and situational pace of play since Brady arrived in Florida two years ago. Not shocking that drafters want any piece of this offense they can get with 17 players boasting ADPs from Tampa.
And the easiest way to reap the benefits of Brady’s prolific passing attack at value is to draft guys like Russell Gage and/or Cameron Brate.
Gage is coming off a stellar year after posting career-highs in yards per route run (1.96) and PFF receiving grade (76.0) while playing more on the outside. Often considered a “slot-only” wideout, Gage split snaps 50/50 from the slot versus outside in 2021.
He also led the Falcons with a 29% target share since Week 11 — playing 53% of his snaps for the outside — showcasing his ability to earn passing volume alongside the talented Kyle Pitts.
Most reports remain pretty grim about Chris Godwin‘s expectation to be back for Week 1, opening the door for Gage to be an absolute smash as WR44 going outside the top-100 picks.
Buccaneers Player Profiles
Tom Brady (QB)
At age 44, Tom Brady attempted the most passes in the league (719) and finished with the most passing yards (5,316) and second-most passing touchdowns (43) in any single season of his career. Brady was the QB3 in fantasy points per game. While he might not reach those heights in 2022, he will still be leading one of the NFL’s fastest-paced and most talented offenses. If Brady’s fountain of youth and avocado milkshakes can hold off father time, he’s a top 5-10 option at the position in fantasy.
Leonard Fournette (RB)
It’s been a long journey for Leonard Fournette from his last days as “Fat Lenny” with the Jacksonville Jaguars earning the moniker “Lombardi Lenny” due to his brilliant play for Tampa Bay the last year and a half.
He impressed the Buccaneers’ front office – and a certain No. 12 quarterback – enough to earn a fat three-year deal with his old team worth $21 million up to $24 million. There’s zero doubt with his performance and contract that he will be the entrenched clear-cut starter for the Bucs, and that’s exactly the desired outcome for fantasy football.
Fournette ranked fifth in fantasy points and fourth in expected fantasy points per game before his Week 15 injury, leading all running in receptions (62). Upon his return to the lineup for the Buccaneers’ playoff matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, Fournette reclaimed bell-cow duties, playing 86% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps to go with 22 touches for 107 yards from scrimmage.
With an all-encompassing skill set at just 27 years old, Fournette possesses easy top-10 running back fantasy appeal. He slides inside my early 2022 running back rankings as RB8 because a fantasy RB1 is exactly what he has been in the Tom Brady-led offense.
Rachaad White (RB)
Rookie RB Rachaad White looks just like Leonard Fournette‘s backup at the moment. But there’s an outcome where he delivers massive upside should Lenny go down with an injury or revert back to Fat Lenny.
White has shades of David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell in his style of play, which clearly didn’t go unnoticed by the new senior football consultant for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Bruce Arians.
The Arizona State product ranked first in his class in receiving yards, No. 1 in yards per route run (2.24) and second in receptions (43).
His 16% target share is absolutely bonkers for a running back at the college level, and it did wonders to generate his third-round draft capital.
The same sentiment can be made for White’s 31% dominator rating and 3.33 offensive yards per snap over the past two seasons. Both would have ranked in the top three in last year’s class.
His yards per snap and PFF receiving grade also both rank first among the class. White’s career receiving grade was superior to anybody from last year’s class as well.
After a strong showing at Senior Bowl week – PFF’s highest-graded rusher (74.9) – and at the NFL combine – and NFL Combine performance – 38-inch vertical jump (86th percentile), 125-inch broad jump (87th percentile) – White has league-winning potential if given the opportunity in the Buccaneers offense.
Mike Evans (WR)
Mike Evans commanded just a 16% target share throughout the regular season and playoffs, but still finished eighth in both fantasy points per game and overall in half-point scoring.
The Buccaneers wide receiver achieved his eighth consecutive 1,000-yard season and set a new career-high with 14 touchdown grabs, breaking his record from 2020. Double-digit touchdowns accompanied by a low target share is usually a sign to fade a wide receiver, but that’s hardly the case in a pass-happy offense led by Tom Brady.
Chris Godwin (WR)
Chris Godwin ranked second in receptions (92, career-high) and eighth in fantasy points per game (18.1) while leading Tampa Bay with a 21% target share through Week 14.
Once deemed healthy, it’s hard to envision Godwin not returning top-12 fantasy value in an aggressive aerial assault led by TB12.
Russell Gage (WR)
Russell Gage walks in the comfortable WR3 role in one of the league’s fastest-paced and pass-happiest offenses. If Chris Godwin gets off to a slow start or begins the season on the PUP, Gage could get bumped up to Brady’s second option. Gage has the talent to handle that after what he showed in 2021. He was 17th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets, per PFF) and 12th in route win rate (per Playerprofiler.com). Brady has proven that he can support a bevy of pass-catchers in fantasy, and Gage could be the latest beneficiary to the Brady bump.
Cameron Brate (TE)
Gronk’s departure from Tampa also impacts the Buccaneers’ tight end room massively because it thrusts Cameron Brate in the starting tight end role – the Harvard man is under contract until 2024.
Although Brate was a non-factor in the games he filled in for Gronkowski last season. He averaged just three targets and 3.8 fantasy points per game. However, he was splitting snaps with O.J. Howard (signed with Buffalo this offseason), so there’s reason to believe he will have a more fruitful role in 2022. Not to mention his competition for targets last season – Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Antonio Brown – will look much less menacing to open the year between mostly Evans and Russell Gage.
He’s easily worth drafting in Best Ball drafts while his price remains cheap, but don’t go out over your skies to snag him in redraft formats. His sub-9% target rate per route run while Gronk was sidelined doesn’t necessarily enthrall confidence that Brate is Brady’s guy. You’re hoping he emerges as a boom-or-bust TD scorer based on his 20 red-zone targets – tied for 2nd with several tight ends – from last season. It wouldn’t be the first time Brate would be a fantasy TE1 having finished top-8 in 2016 and 2017.
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