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2 Running Backs Slated for Target Regression (2022 Fantasy Football)

2 Running Backs Slated for Target Regression (2022 Fantasy Football)

It is important to consider the workload changes from the previous year before drafting a player and expecting them to replicate their performance. Here are two running backs who might be in line for a decrease in targets for 2022.

Fantasy Football Redraft Draft Kit

Negative Target Regression

Leonard Fournette (RB – TB)

Fournette returned back to his old form with his fantasy production, as he finished as the RB8 in points per game in 2021. However, Fournette was a large outlier in the targets he received, as he led the NFL in targets per game with 6 this past season. He finished with 84 targets in 14 games in 2021 with Tampa Bay, which is still only his second-highest single-season target total behind the 100 targets he saw in Jacksonville in 2019.

Fournette seemed to be the only consistent receiving option in the Tampa Bay offense last season, with Giovani Bernard and Ronald Jones struggling in their limited touches behind Fournette. While the Bucs did let Ronald Jones walk in free agency, they drafted Rachaad White in the third round of this past draft as well as fellow RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn returning to the offense in 2022. White averaged 4.5 targets per game in 11 games in 2021 for Arizona State, proving that he is a competent receiving option for QB Tom Brady in this offense.

While there is a possibility that Fournette sees an increase in his rushing volume within a new offense after HC Bruce Arians retired, it is very unlikely that Fournette continues the elite target share that he garnered in 2021.

Najee Harris (RB – PIT)

Harris saw a massive workload in his rookie year as the starting RB for the Steelers in 2021. The former Alabama star led the league in total targets with 94 and was second in the NFL in carries with 307, only behind the RB1 was Colts RB Jonathan Taylor. The Steelers’ offense looked completely dysfunctional in Ben Roethlisberger’s last season as their QB, and it was evident that Big Ben lacked the arm strength to stretch the field like he once could years ago. As a result, Najee was an integral part of the short passing game, as he even had a game where had 19 targets as a running back in Week 3 against the Bengals.

With the Steelers signing free agent QB Mitchell Trubisky and drafting QB Kenny Pickett in the first round of this past draft, it is likely that the team has a new approach to their offense in 2022. The Steelers also drafted WRs George Pickens and Calvin Austin this past season, who have been known for their ability to stretch the field in the deep passing game for their respective college offenses. There is likely to be some regression for the former Alabama RB, especially if the Steelers want to cut down on the touches and save the life of their first-round pick and star back for years to come.

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