Every year there is at least one running back who comes out of nowhere to finish in the top 12. However, it’s rare to see the No. 2 running back on a depth chart finish in the top 12 without a significant injury. Yet, three running backs accomplished this feat last season.
James Conner, Leonard Fournette and Cordarrelle Patterson were the No. 2 running back (or lower) on their team’s depth chart during the preseason. According to Fantasy Football Calculator, all three had a lower ADP than their backfield mate.
Chase Edmonds‘ ADP was RB28, while Conner’s was RB40.
Ronald Jones‘ ADP was RB34, while Fournette’s was RB46.
Mike Davis‘ ADP was the RB21, while Patterson didn’t get drafted in most leagues.
While Conner, Fournette and Patterson all ended last season as top-12 running back in PPR, their backfield mates struggled by comparison. Edmonds was the RB34, Jones the RB62, and Davis the RB35.
Edmonds, Jones and Davis all found themselves on new teams this offseason. At the same time, Conner and Fournette signed new three-year deals, while Patterson signed a new two-year contract this offseason.
Remember, all three running backs finished top 12 without a significant injury to their backfield mate. So who could be this year’s version of Conner, Fournette and Patterson? There are three likely candidates.
AJ Dillon (RB – GB): ADP 56.4
AJ Dillon is arguably the most likely candidate of the trio to finish top 12 this year. He was the RB23 in PPR last season, averaging 10.9 fantasy points per game. Dillon averaged 4.3 yards per rushing attempt and had a solid 37 targets. However, he averaged only 11 rushing attempts per game last season. Yet, Dillon averaged five yards per touch and 0.83 fantasy points per opportunity.
Furthermore, 46 of his 221 touches last year came in the red zone (20.8%) with only six goal-line rushing attempts. With Davante Adams in Las Vegas, the Packers will lean on their two running backs this year. Don’t be shocked if Aaron Jones and Dillon both end the year as an RB1. The last time a pair of teammates had an RB1 season in PPR was in 2020 with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.
Tony Pollard (RB – DAL): ADP 71.2
Since he entered the NFL, Tony Pollard has been a favorite of the fantasy football community. He has averaged 7.5 yards per touch in his career. Pollard also averaged a career-high 5.5 yards per rushing attempt last season. Furthermore, he had a career-high 719 rushing yards last year. The 719 yards were only 171 fewer than his career total entering the season.
More importantly, Pollard looked like the best running back on the roster as Ezekiel Elliott struggled at times last year. Despite Elliott playing all 17 games and averaging 16.7 touches per contest, Pollard was the RB28 last season. He averaged 10.4 PPR fantasy points per game despite averaging only 11.3 touches per contest. The Cowboys traded away Amari Cooper this offseason and won’t have Michael Gallup to begin the year. There have been reports about the Cowboys playing Pollard in the slot in certain situations. If Elliott struggles to start the year, Pollard could take over as the lead back and turn into a top-12 play.
Melvin Gordon (RB – DEN): ADP 86.7
While many hoped Melvin Gordon wouldn’t re-sign with the Broncos, the veteran running back is back in Denver for next season. Last year, he was the RB22 in PPR, averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game while playing 52% of the snaps as he split time with Javonte Williams. However, Gordon was a top-12 running back in 26.7% of the games during the 2021 fantasy season, averaging 20.2 fantasy points per game in those contests.
The veteran has produced RB1 seasons in the past. Gordon was a top-eight running back every year from 2016-2018. In his first year with the Broncos, he was the RB14 in PPR, averaging 13.2 fantasy points per game. All reports point to Williams taking on a more significant role at Gordon’s expense this season. However, Williams could struggle and lose the confidence of the new coaching staff. Gordon will take advantage of the situation and produce for fantasy teams if that happens.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
