When looking for RBs that have potential target regression, there are a couple of factors that fantasy managers want to focus on. These factors include the offense around him, their snap participation specifically in passing and third-down situations, their history of being a viable pass catcher and their overall talent as a receiver. Here are a few RBs that come to mind that should see some regression as receivers.
Conner is coming off a career year as the lead back in the Arizona Cardinals offense. He rushed for over 750 yards and 15 TDs while having 37 receptions on 39 total targets. The Cardinals awarded Conner with a three-year extension this past off-season, letting fellow standout RB Chase Edmonds walk and sign with the Miami Dolphins in free agency. Despite this, the Cardinals did not bring in any big-name free agents besides former Chiefs RB Darrel Williams on a one-year deal. Conner only had a team snap share of 51% last year regardless of his 18 total TD performance throughout the course of the year. While it is expected that Conner’s TD numbers are due for massive regression, his involvement in the passing game should increase with their leading pass-catching RB in Edmonds out of the mix. The Cardinals should lean towards Conner to be a complete three-down back given the rest of their running back options and their belief in his talent based on the new contract they just gave him.
The Browns’ offense overall was a large disappointment after a fine year in 2020 that lead them to the second round of the playoffs. What didn’t change in 2021 were Nick Chubb’s efficient numbers on the ground, as he was second in the NFL with 1,259 yards on top of eight touchdowns on the ground. However, despite his effectiveness as a runner, Chubb has never been as involved in the passing game, as he only averaged 1.8 targets per game in 2021. What has held back Chubb as a receiver is fellow RB Kareem Hunt’s involvement in the offense, as he averaged 3.4 targets per game for Cleveland in 2021. With Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry joining new teams in 2022 and the uncertainty of who will be taking over as the starting QB with a suspension decision looming for newly acquired QB Deshaun Watson, there is potential that the Browns utilize both Chubb and Hunt in the short passing game if the Browns choose to utilize their most talented weapons in their offense.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC)
Edwards-Helaire has not lived up to the first-round draft selection that the Chiefs used on him three years ago. However, that doesn’t mean that the former LSU running back isn’t still a key piece of the Chiefs’ offense. Edwards-Helaire led all Chiefs running backs in snaps share and targets per game with 2.3 in only 10 games played in 2021. While the Chiefs did bring in former Bucs RB Ronald Jones in free agency, Jones has been known for his lack of receiving ability and drop issues in Tampa Bay. Additionally, Tyreek Hill was traded this past off-season to the Miami Dolphins, and the Chiefs have pursued to find more ways to replace him by bringing in Marquez Valdes-Scantling, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Skyy Moore. With this being said, QB Patrick Mahomes could be looking for more reliable pass-catchers within the offense, and CEH has the opportunity to be their leading receiver out of the backfield.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
