Following up on my positive target regression tight ends article from earlier in the week, it is time to look at the other tight ends that are likely to see fewer targets in 2022.
Some of these players have seen a rise in Average Draft Position (ADP) following their 2021 performance. However, some of these have fallen in ADP, and for good reason. These four tight ends all have cases to see negative target regression in 2022 for one reason or another.
As a result, these are all fade candidates and players you should pass on in drafts at their current ADP.
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)
In 2021, Mark Andrews broke the Baltimore Ravens single-season record for receptions and receiving yards with 107 receptions and 1,361 receiving yards. This surpassed his previous best mark in 2019 of 64 receptions for 852 yards.
There were a lot of factors for Andrews’ 2021 success. However, the big two factors are as follows:
1) An unprecedented level of injuries occurred on the Ravens roster in 2021. They lost their top two running backs on the roster before the season began. They also lost Lamar Jackson for essentially six games (he played one series in Week 14). First-round pick Rashod Bateman was also sidelined for the season’s first five games. All this led to Andrews being one of only two recognized pass options on the field.
2) Tyler Huntley played the last five games of the season. When Huntley played under center, Andrews put up a stat line of 55 targets, 43 receptions (40% of his season total), 550 receiving yards (40.4% of his season total) and four touchdowns (44.4% of his season total). That gives Andrews an average of 11 targets, 8.6 receptions, 110 receiving yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game over his final five. His average for the remainder of the season (all but one game with Jackson at QB) was 8.2 targets, 5.3 receptions, 67.6 receiving yards and 0.4 touchdowns a game.
Therefore, it is fair to say that Andrews is in line for a drop in targets in 2021. It is likely Andrews drops 20-30 targets in 2022 just based on Jackson being back as the starter. While there is still not a huge competition for targets, it will be hard for Andrews to replicate his record-breaking volume as things stand.
Darren Waller (TE – LV)
Darren Waller’s 2021 season was plagued by injury. That allowed Hunter Renfrow to breakout for an outstanding season for the Las Vegas Raiders. However, Waller still had a 2021 pace in targets that would have paralleled his 2020 output.
That said, there have been significant developments for the Raiders this offseason. First off, they have hired head coach Josh McDaniels. Secondly, they have traded for Davante Adams from the Green Bay Packers. And they also rewarded Renfrow with a brand new two-year deal worth $32 million.
All this means that it is unlikely that Waller will see the target volume he’s seen over the last few years. There is a chance Waller will still see significant volume in this offense. However, it is likely to be closer to his 2019 target number of around 117 targets, which is 28 targets less than his 2020 number. There is also the expectation his air yards number will be similar to his 2019 numbers, looking at how McDaniels has been using tight ends in recent years.
It still means Waller is a good tight end to target. However, you should be conservative in where you select him. An ADP of 45 is still far too high for an 85-90 reception tight end.
Mike Gesicki (TE – MIA)
Mike Gesicki is coming off a career year for the Miami Dolphins in targets (111), receptions (780) and receiving yards (780). However, those numbers are slightly inflated, considering that outside of Jaylen Waddle, there was little to no production from the rest of the wide receiver corps last year.
Free Agent signing Will Fuller managed just two games and four receptions for 26 yards in his first season with Miami. In addition, DeVante Parker managed just 10 games and 515 receiving yards.
With Mike McDaniel coming in as the new Head Coach this year, there has also been a significant upgrade to the receiving and running back rooms. In comes Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson to upgrade a depleted wide receiver room. Running backs Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, and Sony Michel were all added and can receive the ball in the backfield.
It looks like Gesicki, who has never established himself as a major red zone threat, will struggle to reach 100 targets in 2022. Considering Hill and Waddle are likely to garner around 130 targets each, Edmonds will get north of 60 targets and Wilson getting north of 80 targets; it is hard to see how Gesicki will see 90 targets on this team. My projections have him around 87 targets for 2022. This would split where he was in 2019 and 2020. His upside and fantasy finish will all depend on whether he can increase his touchdown total from two touchdowns in 2021.
T.J. Hockenson (TE – DET)
T.J Hockenson was quietly having an excellent season for the Detroit Lions before it ended prematurely in Week 13. However, it is unlikely that Hockenson, who was on pace for 119 targets and 86 receptions in 2021, will see anywhere near that volume in 2022.
That is because his thumb injury that required surgery opened up the opportunity for Amon-Ra St. Brown to get the ball more. And he took that opportunity with both hands.
In addition to St. Brown and the additional targets he will grab in 2022, the Lions have added free agent DJ Chark and first-round wide receiver Jameson Williams to the receiving corps.
With Williams, Chark and St. Brown all likely demanding between 75-110 targets each, that does not leave enough for Hockenson to match his 2021 pace. Expect Hockenson to scrape 90 or so targets, which is a significant drop on his previous two seasons. Therefore, at his current ADP, it’s hard to see how he is going to differentiate enough from TEs 8-12 in the draft.
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Adam Murfet is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Murf, check out his archive and follow him @Murf_NFL.
