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6 Second-Year Players to Avoid (2022 Fantasy Football)

6 Second-Year Players to Avoid (2022 Fantasy Football)

While rookies are the hot topic this time of year, there are always plenty of second-year NFL players ready to either break out or continue the hot start to their professional career. Let’s take a look at notable second-year fantasy football players, including rankings and player notes for each. Here are second-year players you should avoid based on early ADP. You can also check out 11 second-year players you should be targeting.

Player rankings based on our redraft Expert Consensus Rankings for half-PPR leagues.

6 Second-Year Player Sleepers to Avoid

Jaylen Waddle (MIA): WR15
Jaylen Waddle looked primed to make the leap into the top-12 conversation after a stellar rookie season. Along with breaking Anquan Boldin’s rookie reception record, Waddle commanded a 22% target share and 24% target rate per route run – 18th-best in the NFL. But with the expensive addition of veteran Tyreek Hill, it is less likely that Waddle is the clear-cut No. 1 receiver in Miami. Hill is coming off a season where he commanded the league’s seventh-highest target rate per route run (27%). The trade moves Waddle down from a fringe WR1 to mid-range fantasy WR2 after seeing almost zero target competition last season.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET): WR31
Amon-Ra St. Brown‘s fantastic season-ending stretch was eye-popping, but it also needs context as we look forward to the 2022 season. St. Brown’s final six games were filled with insane volume ranking behind only Justin Jefferson in targets (67) and target share (33.5%) and sixth in weighted opportunity, but his efficiency was also elite. During that stretch, he was also 13th in yards per route run immediately behind Davante Adams and Micheal Pittman (minimum ten targets, per PFF). T.J. Hockenson was out, and D’Andre Swift was a part-time player as St. Brown turned in full legend mode performances. With their respective returns and the addition of D.J. Chark and Jameson Williams, the expectations for St. Brown need to be tempered this season.

Javonte Williams (DEN): RB13
Juggernaut Javonte Williams falls way outside of the fantasy RB1 conversation for me in redraft because it’s hard to envision him significantly surpassing his RB17 finish in half-point scoring from a season ago with a similar split workload expected alongside Melvin Gordon. His current ECR at RB13 is way too rich for my blood. Let’s not forget that Gordon finished right behind Williams as RB18 and played one fewer game. The veteran also said recently that he would refuse to lay down in the battle to be the Broncos’ RB1.

Elijah Mitchell (SF): RB22
Elijah Mitchell ran away with the job last season en route to finishing as the RB14 in fantasy points per game. He was third in opportunity share, but his underlying rushing metrics were a lackluster ball of meh. He was 36th in juke rate, 30th in breakaway run rate, and 34th in yards created per touch. With his 7.0% target share and 25th ranking in route participation, he doesn’t have the pass game usage to save him if the rushing volume and efficiency aren’t there.

Michael Carter (NYJ): RB37
RIP Michael Carter RB1 szn. The Jets drafted workhorse running back Breece Hall at the top of the 2nd round but even considered trading up for him in Round 1 before selecting him 36th overall. The draft capital shows New York’s commitment towards Hall being their clear-cut RB1 for 2022 and beyond, which makes Carter nothing more than a hand-cuff. It’s a reminder to always sell high on Day 3 running backs that flash as rookies; they can be easily replaced and likely won’t “survive” draft after draft without investment from their team. Carter’s looking anywhere between five-to-eight touches per game with Hall entrenched as the bellcow, making the former UNC back near obsolete as anything other than a backup with some upside. From Weeks 7-9 with Tevin Coleman sidelined, Carter averaged 19 touches per game and a 66% snap share. He also finished 10th in yards after contact per attempt (3.4) and third in PFF’s elusive rating. Carter’s receiving ability also fueled four top-17 weekly finishes in 2021, three of which were inside the top-13 in games that featured quarterback check-down king Mike White under center.

Pat Freiermuth (PIT): TE11
It’s fun to hear Steelers fans yell “MUUUUTH!” after Pat Freiermuth receptions. I think it will be less fun to have Freiermuth on your fantasy team this season. A big chunk of his 2021 value was derived from seven TDs on 60 catches. It’s great that dusty Ben Roethlisberger only had eyes for Freiermuth near the end zone, but will Mitch Trubisky and/or Kenny Pickett lock onto Freiermuth in the same way? Freiermuth averaged 8.3 yards per catch and 6.3 yards per target last year. Those aren’t numbers that scream “gotta have” to me.

FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings

2022 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros

 

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